Thread by @cavaliercanon

Thread
1/Trying to figure this out #COVID19Vic #COVID19nsw

Aust. (25.5 mil)
2017 - 161,000 dths
2018 - 158,000
2019 -169,000
2020 - 141,000*

In Sweden (10 mil)
14,000 Covid dths (over 18 mths)(min. restrictions)

14,000 x 2.55 = 35,700 Aus dths (min. restrictions 18 mths)

2/
35,700/3 = 11,900 (6 months)

11,900 x 2 = 23,800 (12 months)

23,800+141,000 = 165,200 est deaths in Aus in 2020 (3,800 less than 2019)

By following our 2019 Pandemic Plan (see: Sweden restrictions)

(Hint: search for lockdown)

www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/…

3/
Even applying the 18 month death rate (in case we did worse than the Swedes, as impossible as it sounds) we end up with 176,700 deaths in Aus for 2020 (less of an increase than what occurred in 2018-2019.)

4/ The reason for comparison from previous years is to compare what amount of death is "acceptable", and assume a decrease from 2019 is good.

I know that this is a basic analysis, but from this basic math I do not see the justification for the last 18 mths of restrictions.

5/ I know death is terrible, but it is inevitable whether we like it or not, and obviously we as a society accepted this prior to 2020.

It seems we have lost any rationality when we about death, we are only triggered by emotion.

Emotions rules our discourse.

6/ Yes, I am no epidemiologist, and the analysis does not take into account seasonality, yearly flu seasons, 'dry tinder', pop. dist etc but this doesn't add up.

And surely the govt. has undertaken a cost/benefit analysis of such a costly (both in $$ and social) undertaking?

7/
*I note the 2020 deaths figure may be updated and I would be interested to see if there is much increase.