I feel like the Chinese govt having to assuring folks everything is OK prob just confirms belief that over financialization is bad. Also, it took domestic markets getting crushed for this to happen, don’t think it’s mainly for you, foreign investors. But hey everyone wins. 🏆
But yeah they apparently told bankers VIEs are fine, so they do care about foreign investors some 😆 But I also never thought this was under attack bc I talked to tons of folks & it doesn’t make sense. In fact yesterday I argued regulating it legitimizes it (lawyer’s views).
I’m reading between the lines of the public articles but also this is going around. I’m not the first hand source (ie these are not my notes!!) and I don’t know whose it is so take w grain of salt. NOT investment advice. /end disclaimer
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The takes that Chinese tech cos now going into manufacturing upgrade / industrial internet / B2B bc you know, the govt said so, are so damn ignorant.
I remember giving interviews to Chinese tech media on B2B prospects in 2015 and saying "maybe this is finally the year."
Actually, just go google, 2015 widely considered first year in China that cloud, B2B platforms, supply chain finance, smart manufacturing, etc. you know, all the things that go into this "industrial internet" concept, became a thing. Numerous funds were raised on this concept.
And now, as folks have been working on these biz and investing in them for like SIX YRS (at least, it just wasn't as popular pre 2015), just cuz now it's in the English news, doesn't mean it's NEW. Doesn't mean everyone's coerced to by the govt. Ridiculous take.
Alibaba CEO letter today wrote about it becoming "consumer + industrial internet" together. You probably recognize "industrial internet" from Tencent, who's made this a big direction since 2018, even wrote a book on it in 2020. But what is industrial internet?
Apparently it was coined by Frost & Sullivan in 2000. In 2014 ish I notice it's starting to be a popular word but mostly referring to IoT (sometimes still does). It becomes REALLY popular by 2017, and of course by 2019 it's pretty much ubiquitous. It includes a lot of things:
- B2B marketplaces, not just of goods but also info
- credit & financing platforms for businesses
- any kind of smart manufacturing / agriculture
- I see folks include logistics, payments too
Honestly, kinda broad, but basically tech "connecting sector value chains," so non B2C🤷♀️
China wants to be a manufacturing-based superpower, not a financialized one (like the US).
Very few understand this.
(Which is bizarre, since it's all the gov't talks about.)
Really weird that people can be triggered by this, this is just a fact that this is China's strategy, you can disagree if you want, but if stating this fact bothers you, then you have some problems engaging with reality.
Today I learned that people love it when you tell them that the sky is blue.
"In the next 100 years, education will still exist, but New Oriental might not. Education is not the same as New Oriental."
-- Jack Ma in 2016
The above was from a conversation where Yu Minhong, founder of New Oriental $EDU & Jack Ma were arguing whose business would stick around for 100 years.
Tbf, Jack didn't think it was necessarily a given Alibaba would be around either. He said the co could be gone in 3 years.😆
"Very few internet companies last more than 3 years“ & "there are only two long-lasting realms in human society, religion and education." -- also Jack Ma in same conversation 🙃
I think the confusion over “China tech” is due to lack of specificity: 1. consumer tech platforms & brands 2. service biz tech / B2B 3. tech for supply chain / mfg 4. chokepoint tech (China doesn’t have it, can be sanctioned) 5. frontier tech
5a. Climate / carbon reduction tech
1. Consumer tech platforms were too lightly regulated before with respect to antitrust. But many provide digital infrastructure on which domestic consumption (dua circulation!) relies. So the biz *practices* are curbed, the biz itself is not problematic. Brands are doing v well.
2. Basically SaaS / enterprise software. Huge area of upgrade for the economy, easy to unleash a lot more productivity. VCs already all over this for past few years. A great overview on it here:
1/ So I've been talking a lot abt the surge in D2C (direct to consumer) brand investing in China. I spoke to & wrote abt one of the most visible cos of this trend, Genki Forest, a bottled beverage co, aiming to become IMO not just the Coca-Cola of China, but the next $KO period.
2/ Genki is 5 yrs old, $6Bn valuation, ~$450mm rev last year, targeting $1.2Bn this yr. It sells sugarfree sodas, milk teas, energy drinks, etc. So what's special about it? Well, first, let me tell you what's diff abt the Chinese ecosystem.
3/ Chinese e-commerce ecosystem, in case you forgot:
- Highly concentrated: Just 2 players (Alibaba & JD) have 80%+ mkt share
- New digital platforms enable new formats: mini programs & short videos, even faster now to build a brand
- Very cheap logistics
- Advanced supply chain