(1/n) The more I think about it, the more I think that war between the US and China is coming. It's too Black Swanish for people to assign the proper likelihood. But it's not a Black Swan (it's entirely predictable); it's just black, so nobody wants to think about it properly.
(2/n) China is presently doing the equivalent of Thatcher stockpiling coal before the miner's strike of 84-85. It's making sure it's got all its ducks in a row, and that it cannot be defeated through the back door while winning militarily. The increase of ICBM silos is a way ...
(3/n)...to make sure that a US first strike cannot win a nuclear war, and to raise the cost of the US going nuclear should they lose a conventional war (which is a sign of Chinese confidence). A key indicator of China preparing would be the mobilisation of private industry...
(4/n)...well what's happening with the tech industry? People assume that is Xi making sure they are under CCP control and don't form a rival power base. Yes, true. But it also might be a case of making sure they're onside in the event of war, in which the cyber theatre will...
(5/n)...be crucial. It also shows the rest of industry which side their bread it buttered on. Maybe he doesn't care about throttling the golden goose of 21st century tech, because he has a more pressing engagement: showdown with the Seventh Fleet in the South China Sea? There...
(6/n)...are other signs, too. Increased satellite launches, increased nationalist rhetoric, more aggressive incursions into Taiwanese air space and maritime territory. It's actually frightening, because he has a strategic window now, and it's closing. Soon, the US will swing...
(7/n)...the entirety of its awesome economic, technological, military, intelligence and soft power into containing China. It will offer sweet trade deals, technology transfers and military assistance to Japan, Vietnam, India and other natural adversaries of China. It will also...
(8/n).. use the press to bring the American people -- and the world -- into the battle. It will stir up trouble on China's borders and in Tibet, Hong Kong and Xinjiang. Meantime, Australia and Japan are slowly rearming and India is growing more powerful. The Chinese probing...
(9/n)...in the Himalayas is not to snatch territory, but to keep India occupied on land so it cannot attend to developing a blue water navy, and especially to making the Andaman Islands an impenetrable gate at the far end of the Strait of Malacca. The US will eventually start...
(10/n)...prioritising its navy, too, made easier as Biden, like Reagan in the 80s, runs the US economy hot. So now is the time. The Centenary of the PR China is 2049. It's said it takes 25 years for the world to forgive military outrages. We need to start assigning a much...
(11/n)...higher probability to war in the next three years. Any discoveries of weapons smuggling into Taiwan (preparing inserted special forces); hyper aggressive diplomatic rhetoric; clandestine satellite launches, or launches that do not warn air traffic; assassinations of...
(12/n)... leading Taiwanese politicians or public figures, abductions of the same, civil unrest in Taiwan, or cyber attacks must be seen as a sign it's getting extremely close. Cutting telecommunications and massing craft in Fijian, and we know it's coming.
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