We are all connected; the virus finds a way to vulnerable people, and congregate living situations. Without high-filtration, tight-fitting masks, vaccinated caregivers, and testing, people are put at risk of death. God help us if next mutant is worse. Unmasked vaxed also spread…
Translation says about 10% of cases reported by Geneva were vaccinated individuals. In the Singapore cluster analysis, which was nearing 500 cases before government stopped reporting details, it was about 28% fully vaxed involved in 1st outbreaks of Delta variant.
CDC’s grave mistakes in the May unmasking announcement were #1 — telling vaxed people they were completely safe; #2 — telling vaxed people they could harm no one and wouldn’t transmit COVID-19. Neither are true, although 💉 provide incredible protection against severe disease.
Anyone relying on studies from early 2020 and original versions of SARS-CoV-2, especially when managing contact tracing or planning for school safety measures, has built their plans on sand. Now is the time to be very serious about safety measures, while trying to carry on.
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Uh oh… APS Policy: Don’t notify kids/staff if they were near a COVID-19 case, if were wearing a mask? Hmmm…Confusing. An upset parent just sent us this APS note about contact tracing and asked us if we understood it. APS cites CDC…
BUT a 3-minute search of CDC turns up a guide for what to do if you have COVID, which CLEARLY states people you were near while wearing masks ARE CLOSE CONTACTS and must be notified. Is it any wonder why parents are worried ‘bout back to school… especially for unvaxed kids < 12?
WHY would we not err on side of at least notification? If nothing else? How many APS families include multigenerational members, caregivers for elderly, pregnant moms, new babies, or immune-compromised members at more risk from COVID-19?
One slide states there’s a higher risk among older age groups for hospitalization/death relative to younger people, regardless of vaccination status. Another estimates 35,000 (👀) symptomatic infections per week among 162-million vaccinated Americans. washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07…
Why is anyone saying breakthroughs are rare if CDC is estimating 35,000 symptomatic infections in vaxed people a WEEK?! with new variant??? How many — if asymptomatic infections were included? As contagious as chickenpox? More contagious than ebola?
Safety focus MUST be on AIR!
From the article: “We’ve done a great job of telling the public these are miracle vaccines,” Seeger said. “We have probably fallen a little into the trap of over-reassurance, which is one of the challenges of any crisis communication circumstance.”
If we wore masks with people not in our households, maybe we would bend this curve before we get back to high transmission. As % of Delta cases ⬆️, cases are up, positive tests are up, even with a highly vaxed population. We have so many kids under 12 who need to get 💉.
The charts…
Federal doses at work aren’t included in stats in VA by county so maybe another 5% of Arlington is fully vaxed than shown. Judging from our trend line, it’s NOT enough with Delta’s arrival. Other NPIs are needed if we want to prevent another surge here (before it happens).
1/ Time for the weekly report on stats and outbreaks in our schools. Here's a look by school and week.
2/ And here's a look at overall exposures and positive cases... We did have one week with over 100 people affected by needing to quarantine or being sick with COVID-19. Most of the weeks are hovering at about five dozen people affected.
3/ Here's a look at who is getting sick in Arlington by age, as a percentage of TOTAL cases in a week. Seems like kids cases jumped after school reopened, followed by increases in parent aged groups. Younger 20 somethings also continue to be high % of our cases.
1/ When faced w/ uncertainty in a crisis, assuming best outcome can be a mistake. As @dgurdasani1 noted: "It's not alarmist to be cautious. In the face of uncertainty, when the losses can be large, the best strategy is to reduce risk as far as possible." threadreaderapp.com/thread/1384778…
2/ This is @APSVaSchoolBd's plan for fall: Normal. Full buses. Normal lunch. (Full cafeterias indoors?) APS hopes that CDC drops its 3' guidance so there won't be any distancing, even among unvaccinated younger kids. (Contingency is 3' distance.)
Or anyone can choose virtual.
3/ This is @FCPSSupt's plan: force most to in-person. Limit access to virtual accommodations. But have "large-scale" testing and purchase tents to take class activities outdoors — plan now to reduce risk until kids vaccinated. (Critics: not enough done.)
Oh, and a bioaerosol expert on a our leadership team also tested these in his lab and found them to be utterly ineffectual at doing anything to block small floating particles!