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Branko Milanovic Profile picture
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30 Jul, 6 tweets, 1 min read
Sometimes people say that methodology is not important. You just do what you have to do (esp. in econ). But that clearly is false. By believing that you are ignoring "methodology" you are actually applying one.
On the other hand, methodology-only books are sterile and boring.
But when they are good, they are illuminating.
Here are three examples on global topics w/ my reviews:
S Conrad, What is global history?
braveneweurope.com/branko-milanov…
C Christiansen and S Jensen (eds).
History of global inequality studies
glineq.blogspot.com/2020/11/the-hi…
S Moyn, Not enough
glineq.blogspot.com/2019/07/from-w…
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Branko Milanovic Profile picture
25 Jul
Very interesting point by @MattBruenig.
mattbruenig.com/2021/07/24/nor…
It says the following. Norway's emissions per unit of fuel extracted are less than that of other oil producing countries. If we take total oil production as x, it is less CO2 intensive...
...to produce it in Norway than elsewhere => Norway's production should *expand*.
Matt's point totally misses the income part. Oil output results in higher income. For a given amount of emissions, it is better for the world that they should be emitted in Nigeria than in Norway.
Thus, ideally you should start with the poorest country in the world, let it produce as much oil as possible and then move to the next, until you have exhausted the demand for oil.
Under that pro-poor scenario Norway would produce zero oil.
Read 4 tweets
Branko Milanovic Profile picture
21 Jul
*Jedna* recenica mog intervjua u "Danasu" da Srbija (do korone) "menja neke elemente demokratije za brzi ekonomski rast" izazvala je veliku polemiku. (Uzgred, Srbija se nigde ne pominje ni u "C,A" niti u "Globalnoj nejednakosti".)
Imao sam u vidu da su s jedne strane, nezavisne institucije u Srbiji znacajno oslabljene u poslednjih desetak godina, ali da je, u isto vreme, ekonomski rast bio zadovoljavajuci. On jos nije na nivou na kome bi idealno trebalo da bude, ali jeste zadovoljajuci.
I ne samo ekonomski rast vec i drugi ekonomski pokazatelji: inflacija, porast izvoz/GDP, smanjenje budzetskog deficita, smanjenje nezaposlenosti itd.
Ali najveca polemika je nastala oko stope raste sto je cudno, jer je to prilicno lako izracunati i uporediti.
Read 8 tweets
Branko Milanovic Profile picture
1 Jul
My argument in "C,A" that China is capitalist is not based on the composition of CPC, but on the share of VA produced by the private sector, private sector role employment (incl. the self-employed in agriculture) & in fixed investments.
Some numbers on the declining state role:
Share of the state sector in total GDP.
Share of the state sector in total urban employment.
Read 4 tweets
Branko Milanovic Profile picture
29 Jun
(Long thread)
I am rereading vol. 2-3 of Kolakowski's magisterial "Main currents of Marxism" (read it in 1982-3; written in late 1970s). Will write a post on it later.
The erudition is awe-inspiring. Writing excellent. Clear, very logical sentences. The use of irony is sparing.
Pent-up anger is never allowed to escape and eclipse the thinking.
But some parts are dogmatic and ultra-deterministic; plus, the current Chinese experience throws a very different light on USSR in the 1920s. That experience was, of course, still in future when Kolakowski wrote.
Kolakowski has the straight line: Marx=Lenin=Trotsky=Stalin=Lukacz etc.
In econ, it leads him to treat War Communism, NEP and collectivization as the same thing, or as everything inevitably leading to collectivization & mass murder. No "degrees of freedom".
Read 5 tweets
Branko Milanovic Profile picture
22 Jun
Today's EHR workshop discussed 3 excellent papers. I will show one graph from each.
Bleynat, Challu, Segal on long-term growth & inequality in Mexico.
The real wage (blue) increased substantially in 1960-80 after which it dropped precipitously, to go up again a bit more recently.
BCS conclude that policy played a major role in wage repression after the 1980 debt crisis.
de Pleijt & van Zanden find that women's wages almost equaled men's in Northern Europe after the Black Death, but then decreased to some 50-70% of men's in 17th C.
They conclude that a tight labor market after the pandemic pulled women's wages up; but the effects lessened as growth slackened.
Scott looks at millionaires in the UK after WW1 & finds that their numbers peaked in the 1920s.
Read 5 tweets
Branko Milanovic Profile picture
19 Jun
What I meant by saying that the Hewlett Foundation article was "ignorant" was that the authors seem to view "development" as a Western concept. Their view of history is entirely US-centric. "Development" as conscious state policy to increase income started with Japan and Germany.
It continued with the Soviet Union.
Included numerous authors such as Feldman, Leontieff, Kuznets in the USSR, Gerschenkron, Arthur Lewis and many others. To imagine that it somehow starts w/ Truman, Kennedy or modernization theory is to ignore about a century of development.
Thus the idea of "development" simply means that to improve people's lives higher real income matters: it gives you good housing, running water, sewage, electricity, washing machine, car, wifi and many other things that make lives better.
Read 4 tweets

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