Over the last two weeks I’ve spoken to 10 x Billion $ companies cancelling return to the office due to the delta variant

A few predictions on what most companies are about to do

[ a thread ] 💻 🏠 🌍
☠️ Office Death: leases are expiring and not being renewed

By the time people can return to the office a lot of companies will no longer have space to return to
🏃‍♂️City Flight: workers will continue to leave the cities their offices are located in

Many will end up quitting their jobs if their companies try to force them back to the office
🚜 Rural Living: many people, particularly those with families, will move to have more space, bigger homes

‘Second-tier cities’ will do very well as people move back to the areas they are from
🎡 Hybrid Conflict: what companies think hybrid work is and what workers think it is are two different things

Workers think it means being able to work remotely whenever they want

Companies think it means telling workers when they must attend

Huge resentment will happen
🏗 Construction Cancellation: perfect storm of high commodity prices and empty offices will lead to far less being built

There will be a huge deficit in high quality spaces optimized for remote workers when they do come together physically
🌍 Global Hiring: almost everything company will begin expanding the areas in which they hire

Remote work will democratize access to the best opportunity even more rapidly over the next 6-12 months
❌ Offsite Postponement: Most companies will stop remote off sites until at least the end of Q1 2022

There will be a big push forward on things that build culture remotely and perks delivered in peoples homes
🔏 Hyper Turnover: workers have seen how they’re companies intend to remote work

Many don’t like what they have seen

We are about to live through the highest period of turnover between companies in history as people find the company who gives them what they need
📬 Micro Coworking: spaces close to home will rise rapidly for people who don’t want to or can’t WFH

This will be a home on every street, kitted out with the right furniture, great coffee, and on demand fitness equipment
💺 Office Furntiture: the best companies in the world will care about their people the most

Making sure workers are as safe, comfortable and productive at home as in an office is essential

Great companies will do this

Bad ones won’t
🛑 Async Emerges: remote work has lasted so long people are fatigued by the office being replicated remotely

Being in video calls all day makes you feel busy but crushed productivity

Most companies are looking to become more async as a result
⛓ Habits Fixed: remote work has lasted so long, some behaviors will be almost impossible to change

By the time people can go back into the office safely, remote work will have been the norm for millions of people for over 2 years
🚙 Commuting Death: no matter what companies try workers will never accept commuting 2H a day again

Companies who don’t realize this will push their best people out the door
💰 Remote Savings: spending $10K-50K per worker on office space each year will never happen again

Companies won’t just save this cash, they will use it to retain and attract great people
💉Vaccine Debate: there will be furious discussion on the right policy’s companies will roll out relating to vaccinated and unvaccinated workers
🚌 School Closures: will happen widely again. This will put huge pressure on working parents

Some companies will find ways to help their workers
❤️ Remote Communities: workers living closer to other friends, family, or people with similar hobbies who all work remotely

Shared childcare, living closer to the things that make them happiest, all while continuing to do great work
Why do these companies talk to me?

FirstbaseHQ.com

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More from @chris_herd

23 Jul
I've spoken to 2,000+ companies over the last 12 months about their plans for remote work going forward

Here are a few things I've learned

[ a thread ] 💻🏠🌍
🏢 HQ’s are finished: companies will cut their commercial office space by 50-70%

The will allow every worker to work from home 2-4 days a week, and come into the office 1-2 days a week
🌍 Fully distributed: ~30% of the companies we talk to are getting rid of the office entirely and going remote-first

Companies doing this have seen their workers decentralize rapidly, leaving expensive cities to be closer to family
Read 23 tweets
16 Jul
The 2020s are the Remote Work decade

A few more predictions of what is likely to emerge

[ a thread ] 💻🏠🌍
🤖 personal RPA: robotic process automation will transform work for individuals

No-code tools that enable workers to built bots that automate menial parts of their roles will be huge
💀 Death of HQ: the office is dead but offices will persist. They’ll be used less frequently then hardly at all

Co-working, subscription clubs, will emerge that let workers who prefer that mode of work to operate from there
Read 25 tweets
9 Jul
On March 12th 2020 the world changed

In the 15 months since remote work has accelerated 15 years into the future

Where prior to the pandemic only 3% of the US workforce worked remotely full-time, after the pandemic 10X that number will

[ a thread] 💻🏠🌍
The numbers 📊

3–4M full-time workers operated remotely full-time in 2018

By 2030 that number looks set to grow to at least 80M workers

I expect that number to increase dramatically as millions of workers experience normal, healthy remote working for the first time
Pandemic Remote🦠

What people have worked through in the last 15 months has been the worst possible version of remote work

Lockdowns, homeschooling, unable to travel, can’t see friends, little freedom to do the things that make us happiest
Read 31 tweets
6 Jul
Remote work changed my life

I missed my daughter walk, laugh, and talk for the first time due to working in an office

I was told this is normal: “just what happens when you have to put a roof over your families head”

Turns out the need to be in an office to work was a lie
I dream of a future of where you live not determining your access to opportunity

- I’m from a small city in Scotland
- never stepped foot in Silicon Valley

At no other point in history could I still live in this city and have raised $15M to build a global tech company
Offices have been great for some people and terrible for others

The data of women falling out of the workplace during covid id a horrific example of this

Remote work should lead to the most diverse, inclusive and accessible companies in history

But will it?
Read 6 tweets
2 Jul
I've spoken to 10 of the biggest organizations in the world about their plans for remote work

Here’s what you need to know:
🏢 HQ’s are finished: companies will cut their commercial office space by atleast 50-70%

The will allow every worker to work from home 2-4 days a week, and come into the office 1-2 days a week
🌍 Fully distributed: 30-50% of companies will get rid of the office entirely and go remote-first

Companies doing this have seen their workers decentralize rapidly, leaving expensive cities to be closer to family
Read 19 tweets
24 Jun
I've spoken to 2,000+ people about remote work in the last 12 months

A few predictions of what is likely to emerge before 2030

[ a thread ] 💻🏠🌍
🚜 Rural Living: People will move to smaller cities, have a lower cost of living & higher quality of life

These regions must innovate quickly to attract that wealth. Better schools, faster internet connections are a must
⏰ Asynchronous Work: Offices are instantaneous gratification distraction factories where synchronous work makes it impossible to get stuff done

Tools that enable asynchronous work are the most important thing globally remote teams need. A lot of startups will try to tackle this
Read 21 tweets

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