Thread by @theonlyju1

1) A preview of our future when school starts.
TL,DR; We will be at least twice as bad off.

These graphs don't line up perfect.
The 2020 case rate per 100K before school. 8/13/20 was HALF what it is now, and it's only 7/30.

2) A year ago today there were 502 new cases.
Today there were 1,211 new cases.
That's 2.41 times higher.

3)
7 day avg cases
Jul 29, 2020: 512.9
Jul 29, 2021: 755

In 2020 this average was going DOWN to a dip before we climbed the "School's-in Mountain".
This year we are already heading rather sharply up, and school will start soon. Will we have a small dip before the 2021 mountain?

4) Case positivity rates, when they are high show that there is a LOT more infection out there than what we are catching. I think it's even more true than last year, b/c the unvaxxed are getting sick, AND tend to be ppl unwilling to get tested.
7/29/20- 9.6%
7/30/21- 16.6%

5) This graph last year showed that when school started, YES, younger people got sick, ESPECIALLY the high school and College age ones, in Utah.

6) This is from England this year. It rather clearly shows that every time school is out of session, infections drop, then climb steadily (measured as absences due to Covid) when school is in session.

Interesting that cases had a much steeper climb after the shorter break.

7) Can I remind everybody that THIS was the rise in cases after school started last year, and we HAD universal masks in K12? I know not all infections are spread by school kids, but it's impossible to ignore the "School's-In Mountain [of Mordor]".

8) I personally think last year's mountain would've been less bad if colleges had been required to mask up too. We came down the other side of the mountain after we finally had a statewide mask mandate, though we did have big surges after every single holiday.

9) So....what is this going to look like this year? We are starting off with things at least twice as bad, no mask mandates allowed anywhere, not even schools, and everyone is having fun living their fairy tale that the pandemic doesn't even exist anymore.

10) And I didn't even mention that this year we also have #DeltaVariant, which took over in only 2.5 mos, and is way more contagious/infectious.

More than Smallpox, Polio, SARS, MERS, freaking EBOLA. (Ebola's not rhe most contagious really, but it makes ppl pay attention.)

11) We measure how infectious something is with R0, which is an average of how many people will get sick from one infected person.
"#DeltaVariant appears to have an R0, of between around 5 and 9.5."
The flu has an R0 of 1-2.

newsweek.com/how-contagious…

12) So, you see why I'm a bit freaked out about sending kids to school and why I'm emailing, texting, or calling the #utleg and gov daily. We need a school mask mandate NOW!

Please help?
U can use @resistbot for your reps & Gov.
Leg. leadership team here:

https://twitter.com/theonlyju1/status/1420571942810128386?s=19

13) Credit to @DrEricDing @RobertGehrke and @808Murmurs which is where I got many of the screenshots/graphs, except a couple from the super-lame-for-mobile Utah covid website, which is why I use these others so much.
@808Murmurs , man do I miss your graphs!!

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