Thread by @marcowenjones

Thread 1/ This is a thread on the hashtag 'Tunisia is safe', which has been trending in #Tunisia for the past two days or so, and was the top trend for some time. This thread highlights the contents of the hashtag, its influencers, its seeming purpose, and any potential anomalies

2/ The sample includes about around 7000 interactions involving around 3500 unique accounts (this number also includes accounts that did not tweet the term, but were mentioned or replied to) Sample ranges from 7pm 28th July to 6am 31st July. #Tunisia

3/ First, who was tweeting and who was the composition. The most influentional and retweeted account was popular Tunisian influencer Louay Cherni. Also influential and heavily RT's was Tunisian model and actress Azza Slimene. Cherni's tweet criticizing Ennahda was the most

4/ retweeted on the hashtag. Slimene's tweet expressing cautious but guarded optimism was the second most retweeted. A thematic analysis of all the tweets on the hashtag reveal that the predominant message was anti-Ennahda and anti-Islamism. 37% of interactions were tweets/RTs

5/ either criticizing Ennahda, Islamism or the Muslim Brotherhood. The most extreme forms of criticism was labelling Ennahda terrorists. Around 27% are tweets defending Kais. Around 6% express dismissal of narratives that don't support Kais or call the crisis a coup #Tunisia

6/ It is quite clear then that the hashtag predominantly focuses on adversarial narratives re Ennahdha, positioning them as the chief cause of the problem, and the main propagator of lies around events unfolding in #Tunisia. An interesting aspect of the campaign is the concerted

7/ effort to spread these messages and to 'explain' Tunisia to international news outlets & commentators. A striking aspect of the network is the no. of 'replies' versus retweets. While RTs make up the most content, there are a high number of replies. Why is this interesting?

8/ If you look at the graph there are two clear areas, green versus purple. Purple is retweets, while green represents replies with the hashtag 'tunisia is safe' - mostly to news channels and others. These include channels predominantly seen as critical of the selfcoup, including

9/ Al Jazeera Arabic, AlArabyTV, but also anyone potentially critical of Kais' actions, such as @IlhanMN - and Ennahda members @radwan_masmoudi . This high reply volume demonstrates a fairly clear attempt to try and shape the narrative around unfolding events in #Tunisia

10/ That's not necessarily surprising given the charged narrative around events. A potentially odd aspect of the trend which can be interpreted in two ways is also the volume of new accounts on the hashtag. 503 new accounts have been created in 3 days (28,29,30th July). This

11/ Compare this with the average number of accounts created per month on the sample, which is only 29. Such anomalies usually mean one of two things. First, extraordinary events drive people to Twitter to take part in the conversation or spread their opinions

12/ The alternative is manipulation, where new accounts are generated en masse by some entity to try and shape a narrative. It can also be a combination of both of those things, although it is hard to determine with great precision which is which in such cases.

13/ SOme may have noticed a similar spike in May. In 8 days 415 new accounts were created - most of these seem to have been set up to tweet about what was happening in Sheikh Jarrah in Palestine. Again, the same logic applies. A potentially interesting aspect too is that

14/ you don't see the same dramatic account creation in 2010/11, when the Jasmine Revolution really began. This can mean that at the time less people joined Twitter around that time (although that's likely not true). It could demonstrate that those who signed up in 10/11 did not

15/ engage to the same level on the tunisia is safe hashtag - for whatever reason (age, abandonment of Twitter account etc). Many of the new accounts after being set up see to reply directly to other accounts with the tunisia is safe hashtag - and don't do much else after sending

16/ that tweet. In sum, the contents of the thread emphasise support for KS and also single out attacking Ennahda. It's not a hashtag encouraging debate or conversation (hey this is Twitter!), but one propagating a specific message. - So that's it for now - some caveats

1) For those less familiar with soc-media analysis - it is not a public opinion poll
2) It is generally descriptive
3) FB is not relevant to this thread
4) It is not a comment on who supports whom and how many support KS's actions.