Thread by @PDawg206

Without Texas & Oklahoma, can the Big 12 continue performing as a power conference * on the field * ?

Yes it can.

A thread ... @BobBowlsby

1/

First let's state the obvious, that losing Texas & Oklahoma is a blow.

Since 2017, they've been the two best programs in the Big 12. Oklahoma has been the clear #5 nationally, with a ceiling, but an extremely high floor.

National SRS, 2017-2020

images2.imgbox.com/32/5f/uuS0QmCr…

2/

We can poke fun at Texas for a bad stretch from 2013-2017.

In the CFP era, TCU & Oklahoma State posted higher avg SRS ratings, and UT's hypothetical inclusion in the SEC would've actually * lowered * the SEC's avg SRS. LOL.

National SRS, 2014-2020

images2.imgbox.com/32/5f/uuS0QmCr…

3/

But we know that won't last. Without these two, the Big 12 lacks a marquee program, a strong bet to be a national contender. There are good programs, but no titans.

But is a leftover Big 12 a G5? Is it the AAC? In my opinion, no. Such sentiment is pile on hyperbole.

4/

Let's look at conference strength since 2017 & 2014, w/ various compositions of the Big 12 & SEC.

2017 is when current conference hierarchies emerged. The Big 12 rebounded from its 2015-2016 dip, and the Pac-12 took a dip that it has yet to fully recover from.

2014 = CFP.

5/

Avg SRS Rating : Rank, 2017-2020

9.14 SEC w/ OU-UT
8.40 SEC
7.39 B10
6.00 B12
4.34 B12 w/out OU-UT, w/ avg ECs x 2
4.23 ACC
4.22 P12
3.91 B12 w/out OU-UT
0.53 AAC
-3.10 MWC
-5.08 Sun Belt
-6.39 MAC
-7.56 CUSA

ECs = expansion candidates

6/

Avg SRS Rating, 2014-2020

9.00 SEC w/ OU-UT
8.60 SEC
6.51 B10
5.54 P12
5.36 B12
4.86 ACC
3.78 B12 w/out OU-UT, w/ avg ECs x 2
3.76 B12 w/out OU-UT
-0.68 AAC
-3.40 MWC
-6.09 MAC
-6.19 SB
-6.92 CUSA

ECs = expansion candidates

7/

Even w/out UT-OU, and even w/ Kansas performing at a level so poor that it's likely unsustainable for a P5 (save your snark #RockChalk), the Big 12 still performed at a level

3-5 points better than the AAC
close to the ACC since 2017 & 2014
close to the Pac-12 since 2017

8/

What about the expansion candidates? (highlighted in yellow)

Would hypothetical inclusion of anybody the Big 12 could conceivably add tomorrow, have helped the Big 12?

Maybe incrementally. The emergence of SMU under @CoachDykesSMU should be intriguing to the league.

9/

And going back a little further, we are reminded of Houston's status as a well above avg G5 program with significant upside.

It also stands to reason that membership in a P5 league, even a stripped down one, would only help these G5 programs.

10/

We cannot assume the same performance under different circumstances - even from an advanced metrics perspective, as opposed to W/Ls & conference titles.

We don't know whether recruits in the Dallas suburbs who pick TCU & Oklahoma State today will pick Mississippi State &

11/

Missouri tomorrow, out of a desire to play in the SEC. That happens today, but the degree to which this changes is important.

But, a look like this, in conjunction w/ the necessary $$$ considerations, is the safest way to predict where a leftover/revised Big 12 would sit.

12/

The hyperbolic narrative isn't it. It disrespects several solid programs & underestimates the depth of football talent in the state of Texas (trending up relative to California).

Geography always has been, and always will be, one of the most powerful forces in CFB.

13/

* With or without expansion * , the Big 12 will remain a P5 league unequivocally. It would likely be the worst one over time, but still capable of strong years where it climbs to #2 or #3 in the pecking order.

Call it a new Big East or a new SWC.

14/

Understandably, this still sucks.

The Big 12 had emerged as the clear #3 league, with ceiling issues but w/ impressive depth, and closer to the Big Ten for #2 than the Pac-12/ACC for #4.

15/

As both a CFB fan and analyst, what I hope happens, is the remaining 8 * stay together * and add @SMU_Football & @UHCougarFB, to further plant the Big 12 flag in Texas. To help existing members recruit the state.

That there is history involved doesn't hurt either.

/end

Keep the Big 12 together

@IASTATEAD
@sammymorrone
@JShieldsKSU
@KSTATEADGT
@WVUADLyons
@tgoff11
@KKlintworth
@ChadWeiberg
@kirbyhocutt
@BUMackRhoades
@JDonati_TCU

@ShehanJeyarajah Should have tagged you, would love your thoughts.

Summary : I think the B12 can remain P5 status (on the field) as currently constructed, so long as the remaining 8 largely maintain the prior decade's level of recruiting.

Recent history tells us thats the case.