Thread by @BonicMichael

@DrMarkPBarry Until Western policy accepts a nuclear DPRK, NK's nuclear deterrence is staying no matter what, b/c it's the US that poses an existential threat to DPRK thru regime change, decapitation strike & preemptive nuclear first strike.
There's a word for this: SELF-DEFENSE.
Look it up.

@DrMarkPBarry 2/This, of course, is reality, yet Western analysts & think tanks don't like REALITY. So they live in a fantasy world and delude themselves ACTUALLY BELIEVING:
*North Korea is safer w/out nuclear deterrence
* KJU would invade South Korea if accepted as a nuclear state
* Sanctions

@DrMarkPBarry 3/relief is DPRK's #1 priority (It isn't:
NORMALIZED RELATIONS W/ THE US IS NORTH KOREA'S #1 TOP PRIORITY. #2 is PEACETIME on the Korean Peninsula)
* Sanctions brought KJU to Singapore
Yeah, well, when your thesis is based on hypotheses that are factually wrong, good luck w/ it.

@DrMarkPBarry 4/It is incredible that US’s & allies’ diplomats, policy makers & strategists have shown that they are diplomatically incompetent and lack the ability to correctly analyze North Korea’s strategic interests. They’re blinded by Cold War Think, politics & the propaganda they sell.

@DrMarkPBarry 5/THE POINT OF DEPARTURE is understanding that the name of the game in this high stakes diplomacy w/ North Korea is SECURITY GUARANTEES. NK sees the US as an existential threat. US points to NK’s nukes, calls them “existential threat”. OK so let’s talk nukes. Let’s deal. The

@DrMarkPBarry 6/problem arose in Hanoi when Trump handed Kim Jong Un a note listing all of US's demands (clearly at John Bolton's behest in his pursuit of the Libya model).

THAT NOTE DERAILED HANOI TALKS

Trump's note to Kim Jong-un at the Hanoi summit revealed: Report

@DrMarkPBarry 7/Another problem is the US’s combination of superiority complex & savior complex: “Poor NK is so backwards, we can save it, but is just to give us all its nukes. It’ll be better off w/ out nukes.” It overlooks the fact DPRK has a socialist agenda. A 3rd problem is not

@DrMarkPBarry 8/“respecting your opponent”. In sports matches players respect their opponent/s. The US has been cocky, overconfident & hasn't taken seriously the conventions or rules of the highest-of-all stakes Nuclear Diplomacy. No one has taken NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY 101.

@DrMarkPBarry 9/Nuclear Diplomacy is Mount Everest in diplomacy. You go in 200% prepared, ready to it give your all & won’t be daunted by defeat. There’s always the next season or a new unexplored route worth doing reconnaissance on.

U.S.'s first ascent up Everest along the West Ridge:👇

@DrMarkPBarry 9/U.S.-DPRK Nuclear Diplomacy should proceed like championship chess played at the level of👇:
The Match of the Century: Fischer-Spassky, 1972
fide.com/fide/about-fide
chess24.com/en/read/news/t…

@DrMarkPBarry 10/Yet the U.S. has yet to deviate one iota from its perennial position: "We cannot accept a nuclear North Korea." Nikki Haley has said it. Many have said it.
"There’s great value in maintaining that line that we cannot accept a nuclear North Korea."

https://twitter.com/BonicMichael/status/1422735970881871873?s=20

@DrMarkPBarry 11/That position makes Nuclear Diplomacy IMPOSSIBLE. There's no NEGOTIATING. This is EXACTLY what happened in Hanoi: A note given to KJU listing all of US's demands. "All or nothing." Take it or leave it. That was a Hail Mary premised on "We cannot accept a nuclear North Korea."

@DrMarkPBarry 12/The US is effectively not showing up for the Championship Chess Match slated b/t it & DPRK.

point-counterpoint: For as long as US maintains, "We cannot accept a nuclear North Korea", North Korea will maintain: "We cannot give up our nuclear deterrence or fully denuclearize."

@DrMarkPBarry 13/That's what's known as causality, or "the law of cause & effect" from which nothing/no one is exempt. The right move for the US to take is to let go of its 68 year-old policy of, "We cannot accept a nuclear North Korea" and try something new. Sticking to it is a lamentable No

@DrMarkPBarry 14/Show which postpones indefinitely the goal of peacetime on the Korean P. The failings & ineptitude of this policy will be clearer in time. "If we squeeze DPRK a little harder, CVID will finally happen, right?" they think. Right. NOT.

https://twitter.com/BonicMichael/status/1423385167679299586?s=20



@DrMarkPBarry 15/There's an Eye in the Sky that'll be watching U.S. Diplomacy w/ North Korea unfolding. Nothing escapes it.

@DrMarkPBarry @threadreaderapp compile

@DrMarkPBarry

https://twitter.com/BonicMichael/status/1423363679886532612?s=20