The #DeFi play I like the most right now is $CVX / $CRV
"But they are both inflationary and everyone dumps rewards" Buckle up, I'm changing your opinion.
I would not be surprised to see both @CurveFinance & @ConvexFinance at ATH's shortly.
Thread ⬇️
"But they are both inflationary and everyone dumps rewards" Buckle up, I'm changing your opinion.
I would not be surprised to see both @CurveFinance & @ConvexFinance at ATH's shortly.
Thread ⬇️
$CRV is the backbone of Defi and still sits at only $600M MC due to yield harvesting.
If you don't understand the struggle of power to control liquidity in DeFi please read this article on Yearn vs. CVX to control $CRV.
Hint: CVX is winning the battle
rekt.news/curve-wars/
If you don't understand the struggle of power to control liquidity in DeFi please read this article on Yearn vs. CVX to control $CRV.
Hint: CVX is winning the battle
rekt.news/curve-wars/
Liquidity Wars -
Whoever controls $CRV controls platform rewards and liquidity allocations. $CVX is custom-built by members of the $CRV team to harvest these rewards and control governance.
Not a direct comparison but keep in mind MC's:
Yearn: $1.17B
CRV: $634M
CVX: $61M
Whoever controls $CRV controls platform rewards and liquidity allocations. $CVX is custom-built by members of the $CRV team to harvest these rewards and control governance.
Not a direct comparison but keep in mind MC's:
Yearn: $1.17B
CRV: $634M
CVX: $61M
The Bear Case -
$CRV & $CVX both consistently emit rewards and are cannibalized by auto compounding projects/vaults that dump to increase positions in their own token.
This isn't going to stop until there is more buy pressure than sell pressure and everyone will start to hold.
$CRV & $CVX both consistently emit rewards and are cannibalized by auto compounding projects/vaults that dump to increase positions in their own token.
This isn't going to stop until there is more buy pressure than sell pressure and everyone will start to hold.
The Bull Case -
There are 3 or 4 major catalysts that set $CRV / $CVX up to be an absolute rocketship over the next few months.
Each independently could send the project but all combined are going to create a scarcity in supply which should rocket price.
There are 3 or 4 major catalysts that set $CRV / $CVX up to be an absolute rocketship over the next few months.
Each independently could send the project but all combined are going to create a scarcity in supply which should rocket price.
Catalyst 1 - Emissions
On August 13th (1 year anniversary🥳) early lp reward emissions end and total emissions drop by 15% (151.5m CRV).
Emissions cut normally means a price increase by a similar amount in order to stabilize at FMV. ~15% increase in price is just a start...
On August 13th (1 year anniversary🥳) early lp reward emissions end and total emissions drop by 15% (151.5m CRV).
Emissions cut normally means a price increase by a similar amount in order to stabilize at FMV. ~15% increase in price is just a start...
Catalyst 2 - EIP1559
Reduced emissions of ETH is a huge catalyst for DeFi as most protocols are paired with ETH directly including $CRV / $CVX.
I'm assuming that ETH does a 2-3x in the near future but if you don't see that as a market you can ignore this as a catalyst.
Reduced emissions of ETH is a huge catalyst for DeFi as most protocols are paired with ETH directly including $CRV / $CVX.
I'm assuming that ETH does a 2-3x in the near future but if you don't see that as a market you can ignore this as a catalyst.
Catalyst 3 - DeFi ETF
The real alpha starts here...
@Grayscale dropped a BTC and DeFi ETF a little over a week ago. BTC outshined DeFi and DeFi was dismissed because their original list of holdings was like Apple, Tesla, Google, and no DeFi.
coindesk.com/the-node-goldm…
The real alpha starts here...
@Grayscale dropped a BTC and DeFi ETF a little over a week ago. BTC outshined DeFi and DeFi was dismissed because their original list of holdings was like Apple, Tesla, Google, and no DeFi.
coindesk.com/the-node-goldm…
Catalyst 3 - DeFi ETF (2)
Shortly after they released the list of actual projects compiling the ETF. 7.44% of holdings will be $CRV which also happens to have one of the smallest MC's at $600M 👀
Shortly after they released the list of actual projects compiling the ETF. 7.44% of holdings will be $CRV which also happens to have one of the smallest MC's at $600M 👀
Catalyst 3 - DeFi ETF (3)
It's important to note that the DeFi ETF only has $7.2M AUM (Assets Under Management) but that number has grown by over $500M since yesterday...
$7.2M worth of growth in a week. Not bad but let's compare to other funds...
It's important to note that the DeFi ETF only has $7.2M AUM (Assets Under Management) but that number has grown by over $500M since yesterday...
$7.2M worth of growth in a week. Not bad but let's compare to other funds...
https://twitter.com/Grayscale/status/1423382718285549570?s=20
Catalyst 3 - DeFi ETF (4)
@Grayscale has an ETH CLASSIC ($6.8B MC) fund with $633M AUM compared to the DeFi ($98B MC) fund with only $7.2M AUM.
14.4x higher MC for DeFi and 87.9x lower assets under management. This will change quickly!
@Grayscale has an ETH CLASSIC ($6.8B MC) fund with $633M AUM compared to the DeFi ($98B MC) fund with only $7.2M AUM.
14.4x higher MC for DeFi and 87.9x lower assets under management. This will change quickly!
https://twitter.com/Grayscale/status/1423382718285549570?s=20
Scenarios -
Keep in mind these are at current levels. They are higher if we go on a run
DeFi Fund reaches $633M AUM (ETC level) - Creates $47.1M of buy pressure for $CRV
DeFi Fund reaches the same % of MC (8.8%) AUM of ETC (~$8.62B) - Creates $729M of buy pressure for $CRV
Keep in mind these are at current levels. They are higher if we go on a run
DeFi Fund reaches $633M AUM (ETC level) - Creates $47.1M of buy pressure for $CRV
DeFi Fund reaches the same % of MC (8.8%) AUM of ETC (~$8.62B) - Creates $729M of buy pressure for $CRV
Scenarios (2) -
We know our buy pressures:
Conservative: $47.1M
Realistic: $729M
Big factors are there being a market for the DeFi fund and how quickly money flows in to reach these levels. Both are things to consider but if ETH goes, it should create FOMO for the fund...
We know our buy pressures:
Conservative: $47.1M
Realistic: $729M
Big factors are there being a market for the DeFi fund and how quickly money flows in to reach these levels. Both are things to consider but if ETH goes, it should create FOMO for the fund...
Catalyst 4 - Tokenomics
$CRV users consistently lock rewards with nearly 76% of all $CRV locked out of circulation. That means roughly $490M CRV is locked and the actual MC of circulation is about $154M....👀😱
$CRV users consistently lock rewards with nearly 76% of all $CRV locked out of circulation. That means roughly $490M CRV is locked and the actual MC of circulation is about $154M....👀😱
https://twitter.com/CurveLock/status/1422397231383162889?s=20
Tokenomics + DeFi Fund
Even extremely conservatively the DeFi Fund buying $47.1M of CRV on a $154M circulating cap sends $CRV. $633M of $CRV buy pressure on a $154M MC is just🤯
This is also on top of CRV emission reductions next week and #EIP1559.
Even extremely conservatively the DeFi Fund buying $47.1M of CRV on a $154M circulating cap sends $CRV. $633M of $CRV buy pressure on a $154M MC is just🤯
This is also on top of CRV emission reductions next week and #EIP1559.
Charts -
Charts don't lie!
Not only is this a long-term play but look at setups for both $CRV/ETH and $CVX/ETH. Looking ready to outperform ETH in the short term and love the long-term potential.
CVX - tradingview.com/x/wPUp7fkL
CRV - tradingview.com/x/WYzIE0Ov/
Charts don't lie!
Not only is this a long-term play but look at setups for both $CRV/ETH and $CVX/ETH. Looking ready to outperform ETH in the short term and love the long-term potential.
CVX - tradingview.com/x/wPUp7fkL
CRV - tradingview.com/x/WYzIE0Ov/
The Play #1 -
$CRV has a tiny circ. cap with ~$150M circ. and the buy pressure from the DeFi fund will be direct. I also expect many yield harvesters will start hoarding rewards as price rises.
Play - Stake $CRV for 7d lockups to get rewards but stay somehwat liquid
$CRV has a tiny circ. cap with ~$150M circ. and the buy pressure from the DeFi fund will be direct. I also expect many yield harvesters will start hoarding rewards as price rises.
Play - Stake $CRV for 7d lockups to get rewards but stay somehwat liquid
The Play #2
$CVX has a $64M MC, endorsed by the CRV team, and is about to be the largest $CRV holder.
Play: Stake $CVX on platform paid out in cvxCRV which is loosely pegged to CRV. 31% APR is actually higher as CRV price rises...
$CVX has a $64M MC, endorsed by the CRV team, and is about to be the largest $CRV holder.
Play: Stake $CVX on platform paid out in cvxCRV which is loosely pegged to CRV. 31% APR is actually higher as CRV price rises...
Both of these are primed to send in my opinion and I love the spot. DYOR and this is not financial advice.
There is the risk of further regulatory FUD, market falling, and always contract risks.
Good Luck and would love people to poke holes in my thesis
There is the risk of further regulatory FUD, market falling, and always contract risks.
Good Luck and would love people to poke holes in my thesis
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