Bunch of random thoughts on the market and my portfolio on a Friday afternoon after the close. Not that I expect people to care, but very open to general feedback if you happen to read this...
A week ago my portfolio hit ATHs. I happened to tweet about it too. This angered the market gods and they gave me a set of bad earnings reactions to some of my positions. Now down about ~7% from said ATHs. For sure not end of the world, but stings. This game is tough 😾
Been crazy busy going through earnings and re-evaluating my theses, but took a bit of time today and refreshed portfolio stats. I think I am in decent shape, but definitely could use some clean up and optimization in the weeks ahead
Happy to disclose some concrete stats. My biggest positions are (in NO particular order):
$IEA
$HDG
$UAN
$TREC
$ARG
$ELVT
$JAKK
$BWMX
$HALL
$IEA
$HDG
$UAN
$TREC
$ARG
$ELVT
$JAKK
$BWMX
$HALL
These 9 positions comprise of 80% of the portfolio. I run a pretty concentrated book, long only. I have ~10 or so other names for the remaining 20%, bunch of cats and dogs, starter positions, etc.
As you can see, I am VERY long energy, commodities and cyclicals generally. I am almost "all in" on inflation and the reopening thesis. Somewhat dangerously positioned at first glance, if you don't know the individual names in detail
But I sleep pretty ok at night. All my names are highly undervalued (in my opinion) and trade at rock-bottom multiples. And they all gush FCF. So even if the inflation/reopening thesis is tested, some cushion from valuation and cash flow.
I don't short, because I believe in Project Zimbabwe and I'm not smart enough to know when the market is going to turn. Not to mention individual shorts are very dangerous. And shorts arguably need to be diligenced more thoroughly than longs... bad return on effort/time, imo
I also have some dry powder. About 5% remaining in cash. I am in the process of trimming some positions here and there. I want more optionality if market choppiness continues, or a core position randomly sells off... and of course new positions as I continuously look for ideas
Btw, my #1 pick is $IEA. I think the returns on this stock will be truly monstrous over the coming year or two. Why? Please read my blog, full writeup there... but essentially they just cleared the biggest overhang - by simplifying their ridiculously complex capital structure
But it's not quite yet digested by the markets. The company needs to finish the debt refinancing, and then print a clean quarter with updated B/S numbers showing the PF capital structure. Various buyside firms need more time to finish doing their work, too.
A lot of people have been throwing names, tickers and their pitches to me over the past few weeks. I appreciate this very much. Always on the lookout for new names to the portfolio. And if I find a superior r/r, not afraid to kick out an existing name
I am obviously very long on cyclicals, so trying to find more special situations and ideas that are not correlated with the broader market or investment themes. These will get priority and extra attention
Anyway, I am very reachable and responsive so please reach out whenever you want to talk ideas... enjoy the weekend 👍
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
