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7 Aug, 10 tweets, 4 min read
COVID sitrep: We are now fairly confident we have passed the high water-mark for this latest wave in the UK. Both infection rates and hospital admissions in decline. Good news but the NHS faces several competing major challenges as we look towards another difficult winter. 1/8
The daily number of COVID infections is consistently falling, and now the number of patients admitted to hospital each day with COVID-19 is on a downward trend as well. 2/8 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Meanwhile, admissions to Intensive Care with COVID seem to be levelling off and possibly even beginning to fall as well. The national picture fits with what colleagues are seeing in hospitals around the UK. 3/8 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Passing the peak is an important moment in the NHS response to each wave. Once we know we are past the worst, we can stop planning for extra COVID capacity, we can re-focus on the patients we have, and all the other ‘routine’ NHS work. This makes a big difference. 4/8
We have seen regional variations throughout the pandemic and there are still a few infection hotspots around. What this map doesn’t show is the NHS COVID workload which is currently worst in the North of England. 5/8 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
The bad news is that current wave of hospital admissions will keep us busy through to October (only 8 weeks away now), and will then combine with other problems to create what we expect to be another major winter crisis for the NHS. 6/8
acmedsci.ac.uk/more/news/wint…
Along with COVID, NHS hospitals are seeing a huge number of attendances at Emergency Depts, and an epidemic of childhood viral infections usually seen in winter. All while we try to get back to business as usual and clear a huge backlog of surgeries amongst other tasks. 7/8
Heading into winter, flu vaccination will be important for people at greater risk and for NHS staff. COVID vaccination remains vital and we can expect plans for booster doses soon. Meanwhile, keep up the good work with #HandsFaceSpace & fresh air. #StaySafe - it's not over. 💙8/8
Worth noting the global picture too. Infections rising at global level which is why we cannot relax. Data from @WHO.
...and the map showing where things are worst.

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Rupert Pearse Profile picture
31 Jul
COVID sitrep: Lots of discussion this week about whether UK COVID infections are falling. The answer is maybe, but this misses the point. We must accept that these waves will come and go. The pandemic is not over, nor is the impact on individuals, the NHS and society. 1/10
If we look at the national COVID positive tests, we might see the suggestion of a downward trend, but the most recent (and so incomplete) data in the grey columns suggest the infection rate is fluctuating. It is just too early to draw any definitive conclusions. 2/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
If we look at Office for National Statistics data, we see infections continue to rise in all four devolved nations (along with hospital admissions and deaths). 3/10 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthan
Read 10 tweets
Rupert Pearse Profile picture
24 Jul
COVID sitrep: Have been off this week so something slightly different. News stories like this one suggest the number of new infections may be beginning to stabilise. Experience tells us it is far too early to know. 1/10
bbc.co.uk/news/health-57…
When cases passed 60,000 a few days ago we were starting to worry, so it’s good news if this was a one-day spike. If we look back, we can see these are spikes common. It’s too early to know whether this is a genuine fall. The numbers jump up and down for lots of reasons. 2/10
Hospital admission rates are around a quarter of what they were in the winter. We have vaccination to thank for this. But the link is only weakened, not broken. More than 5000 people were admitted to hospital with COVID last week. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
Rupert Pearse Profile picture
17 Jul
COVID sitrep: As infections rise exponentially the NHS is again reconfiguring for COVID hospital admissions. This week in the hospital where I work we re-opened our temporary ‘surge’ intensive care unit. The link between infection and serious illness is weaker but not broken 1/10
This from a one my nursing colleagues. It is heart-breaking to think we will again see significant numbers of patients in Intensive Care, and more deaths from COVID-19. 2/10
The virus is all around us. >50,000 infections yesterday. This is why so many are being notified of contacts by the NHS app. Frustrating that newspapers casually call this a ‘ping-demic’ as if it were a software glitch. These are real infections; some will cause real deaths. 3/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Read 10 tweets
Rupert Pearse Profile picture
10 Jul
COVID sitrep: The latest UK wave continues to grow. The good news is (compared to previous waves) there are definitely fewer hospital admissions in relation to the number of infections. But the number of infections is now very large. TLDR: The link is weaker but not broken. 1/10 @jometsonscott
We are still seeing a significant number of people who need hospital care for COVID. They are mostly people who have not yet been vaccinated. A few have medical problems that leave them at greater risk of infection. Others are young and previously fit & well. 2/10
The daily number of new COVID cases in the UK continues to rise (now more than 35,000/day) and is bigger than the November peak. We expected a peak of infections in late July but as we are relaxing not tightening public health measures, the timing is now harder to predict. 3/10 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Read 10 tweets
Rupert Pearse Profile picture
3 Jul
COVID sitrep: On call for ICU this weekend. We definitely have another wave of COVID hospital admissions in the UK. As we did in Nov ’20, we are projecting a ‘slow burn’ of hospital admissions rather than a third wave. Let’s hope our forecast is more accurate this time….. 1/13
The number of COVID cases diagnosed each day in the UK rose more than 10-fold from ~2000 at the start of May to almost 30,000/day now. Meanwhile COVID-19 admissions to NHS hospitals have doubled to ~250 patients/day in the same period (January ’21 peak was over 4000/day). 2/13 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
We have nearly 2,000 hospital in-patients with COVID-19 across the NHS and rising. Of these, nearly ~300 patients are in intensive care beds. This compares to the January peak of nearly 40,000 in-patients with 4,000 in ICU. Small by comparison but still a major epidemic. 3/13 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Read 13 tweets
Rupert Pearse Profile picture
26 Jun
COVID sitrep: We are definitely now entering another wave of hospital admissions in the UK. In the NHS Trust where I work, we are admitting more COVID-19 patients to hospital and more to intensive care, although the pattern seems different to the winter.... 1/8
What we are seeing locally in east London fits with the national pattern of infection rates. The number of patients coming to our hospital group who test positive for COVID had dwindled to single figures but is now back up to 40+ each day and rising. 2/8 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Hospital admissions are rising too. Both older patients yet to take up the invitation to be vaccinated, and young fit patients in their 20’s and 30’s who have not yet had the chance. There are ~1500 COVID patients in NHS hospitals. The January peak was just under 40,000. 3/8 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Read 8 tweets

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