Thread by @ASlavitt

COVID Update: Where we stand in vaccinations in the US.

The path to our goal is clear. 1/

58% of Americans have had at least their first shot.

To be on par with England & Israel and to face off against Delta, we ought to unite behind a 90% goal.

Here’s how to get there. 2/

17% are ineligible to be vaccinated or vaccines don’t fully protect them. (14% are < 13, 3% are immunocompromised). 3/

Holding that group aside, that leaves 25% of the public eligible to be vaccinated, but not vaccinated yet.

There’s a lot of ways to look at that group but I will keep it simple. 4/

The clearest pattern in vaccination status is age. 85% of elderly people are fully vaccinated. 70% of people over 25. Less than half of people 18-25. And only 1/3 of those 13-17. 5/

It is hard not to reach the conclusion that people’s decision on whether to get vaccinated is highly related to their perceived personal risk. 6/

Personal risk for the unvaccinated trumps societal benefit. They could get vaccinated but they believe their age protects them the younger they get. And for them, that’s reason enough not to get vaccinated. 7/

We see this in the recent significant increase in vaccinations with the presence of Delta.

When personal risk goes up so does the desire for the vaccine. Those motivated by other things are already vaccinated. 8/

This is not to discount that many unvaccinated people have questions and concerns about the vaccine.

They often do. But in times when the spread is low, those concerns prevail. In those times when the threat from COVID rises, those concerns fade in comparison. 9/

So 25% people are eligible to get vaccinated but aren’t.

And 17% can’t get vaccinated or can’t be protected fully from vaccination.

And their 2 interests are not aligned. Here’s how… 10/

The 17% unvaccinated rely on the the 25% getting vaccinated to stay safe.

The 25% is focused on their personal safety not protecting others & most are still holding back.

This is where policymakers must come in. 11/

Policymakers must choose between the interest of those 25% unvaccinated & the 17% who have no choice & rely on the rest of us.

How policymakers (& business owners) make this decision will determine the course of the pandemic. 12/

The easiest difficult choice to make is the one that saves people lives.

And the one that protects those with no options over those who are choosing. 13/

If you agree with this, what has to be done is clear. And it comes in a series of events from all walks of society. 14/

Not getting vaccinated will always be an option. But the cost of that choice must be higher.

It must be borne by people who believe there is no consequence to not being vaccinated. Because it’s simply not true. 15/

1- Requiremwnts— Going to work, getting on a plane, attending university, going to a public event are not rights embedded in the constitution. To enjoy this we need to fulfill our obligation to those around us. 16/

It turns out our own liberties must be considered in the context of our obligation to society.

There is ample evidence the Founding Fathers saw protecting against small pox was fundamental and didn’t impact on Liberty. 17/

Vaccine requirements, according to surveys, will instantly add roughly 8% of the public who get vaccinated. 18/

2- Proof of vaccination - a standard has developed & soon your smart phone will allow you to have a way to show whether you are vaccinated or not & even small businesses to check.

If this concerns you, wait til I tell you about the card you need in order to drive a car. 19/

3- An FDA BLA (final approval) which is expected in a matter of weeks will act as a push for people & businesses to make these seemingly difficult decisions.

20/

4- Weeks later, 5-12 year olds may be approved for a lesser dose. Schools who all want to meet in person will need to decide if stomping outside COVID with required vaccinations is worth it. It is. 21/

To be sure, with these steps, there will remain people who will refuse to get vaccinated, who are willing to lie on forms, or who feel strongly enough for other reasons to defy what most people are doing. 22/

But there is good reason to think that as more get vaccinated, many will join them. Families & communities move in groups.

Most opposition to COVID vaccines are not strongly held anti-vax sentiments. Most have taken other vaccines. 23/

Through these 4 steps, one could see 57% becoming 80% & over time 80% turning 90% as people follow their neighbors.

This would not be without noise & vocal debate. And it may take through the winter. But without these steps we get nowhere close. 24/

As difficult as it may be, there are precedents for all of it. And if we don’t follow this path, the situation will be worse for everyone— particularly the unvaccinated.

Because not following a path like this is a boon to future variants. /end