What would I do? Okay. Keeping in mind I'm not in the room, not an Epi and I don't run this stuff. So a big pinch of salt.
But to answer this question for people angry at me for negatively pointing out that NSW is putting the rest of Australia at risk..
..because they started too slow (my key point, which doesn't help now, I know).
I'd reset.
I'd look at what the most stringent of the "Lockdown" rollouts from anywhere in NZ and Aus (planned or enacted) is, add anything more that can be added, ensure food and money can get to..
..those who will suffer most, and roll that out across all of NSW at once, all the same. And lots of different Comms. There is more that can be added if today's Penrith additions are a guide. So do that. Set a new benchmark. And this has to be done before any more of those..
..in NSW become so disillusioned they just don't follow any more rules. It will take a lot of Vic/Qld CHO-like communication to make the case for this really clearly though.
Perhaps it is impossible for this to be done in NSW. But that's what I'd be trying given there are..
..ongoing tweaks are being made anyway. Make one big one and also put everyone into the same "we're in this together" boat. Maketh virus the enemy.
And I'd dial back the "vaccines are our way out of *this lockdown*" narrative unless also saying, NSW is going to be in *this lockdown* for months because that's the likely reality unless a) vax rate jumps up or b) NSW can overcome a widespread global trend of slowing 1st doses..
..vaccinations at ~60% or c) be happy with rising numbers which the rest of the country are not happy with.
It's taken a month to gain another 18% of 1st doses in NSW (another month=63.5%, then 81.5% - then the lag to get 2nd doses & the fact that these are going into..
..the arms of eligible *16-year-olds & over* for now. I think that rate *will* increase in NSW when we get more Pfizer & will at least include 12-18yos by then, but this will increase the pool of eligibles as well.
Last unsought opinion (feel free to unfollow me if they annoy you) - hard to address because of where NSW is now - but I'm struck by how much more upbeat, suggestion-filled, clear & positive the tone is from the Qld and Vic pressers compared to those from NSW.
Figures from abc.net.au/news/2021-03-0…


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More from @MackayIM

7 Aug
🦠13 new linked cases in QLD
🦠total now at 102
🦠40,835 tests in past 24h
🦠will see household (HH) cases continue - so long as they are not one the community, this is good
🦠10,091 heroes in quarantine right now -
🦠Supermarket deliveries seeing high demand for groceries - their staff are also in quarantine;2-3d delays. Plan ahead. Use family and friends. Uber Eats partnering with IGA
🦠Shop alone - don't all go together
🦠CHO wants more testing Cairns
🦠Premier out of quarantine tomorrow after Japan Olympic trip (thx Dr Miles for holding the fort)
Read 8 tweets
6 Aug
Putting too many eggs in the vaccination basket in order to prevent a local *transmission* has issues.
One is, what happens when, like the US, people stop getting vaccinated at the initial most enthusiastic initial rates?
What happens is massive exponential rise in cases and hospitalisations in that location because of too few/weak NPIs in place due to the earlier narratives which paraphrase as "we can live with it".
Another issue for interrupting transmission is it takes time to build up full immunity-even with shortened dosing intervals between doses. Yes, one dose makes a difference & is better than none. Get vaccinated if you can & if supply allows it & your GP has addressed your concerns
Read 7 tweets
1 Aug
🦠9 (all linked) new Delta cases in Brisbane over last 24h
🦠Not found the source of the medical student tutor who infected the ISHS schoolgirl's household
🦠Intermediary link between 2cases from overseas flight 29th June from Singapore & 1st ISHS case, not been made
🦠Genomics shows the exact same variant in all those cases
🦠Sunshine Coast is being looked at hard as a likely source.
🦠Largest single-day new Qld case tally in almost 12 months. [message to take this seriously is being pushed hard]
🦠Five schools at risk now – all have different arrangements
🦠New cluster linked to a Karate school at Ironside
🦠Only 11,468 tests yesterday-this is NOT ENOUGH for this urgent need
🦠"NSW is doing 100,000 a day – let's see how we can go" – CHO on testing numbers
Read 5 tweets
26 Jul
Some international Tweeps seem to think *Australia* has lost its control over COVID-19. The map below shows Australian States and Territories. The yellow bit is where all the cases you're hearing about (100-200 per day) are from.
Hopefully, they'll regain control in coming weeks Image
The rest of Australia continues to manage cases at the border or is getting on top of some local community spread as usual.
Vaccination is ongoing but not at the rate many of us would like to see it. There are multiple reasons underlying that, principally issues with mRNA supply.
Our earliest "sovereign" vaccine had issues as it produced an HIV diagnostic cross-reaction. Our second most backed vaccine generated safety signals which - in the absence of community COVID-19 - created a risk imbalance due to TTS.
Read 7 tweets
21 Jun
Impressively easy to get a test this morning at a Queensland Health testing facility. Found it online. No GP referral needed. Helpful people everywhere. All happened quickly and efficiently. Throat and both nostrils.
Waiting on that result with all those privileged expectations....
*Sampling facility 🙄
Read 4 tweets
19 Jun
Yes, & if I *chose* to do these sports, I'd be *choosing* to take the risk.
I *chose* not to partake in any of those.
🎶One of these things is not like the other🎵
Until recently, those of my age couldn't make a *choice* even though there were options.
This a poor comparison
And admission: I don't have my own horse in this game because I was vaccinated with Pfizer in March as a frontline worker. I use my age (50 - still!!) as a example
This is a better comparison because I can't control getting homicided or car accidented.
However, I can *choose* not to stand in the rain during a lightning storm, and I'm a pretty good (& infrequent) swimmer.
But this is just about deaths? Why control the narrative that way?
Read 13 tweets

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