8/8 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality update:
THREAD:
Highlights for 8/8:
1) Rate of growth is slowing across the board
2) Antigen pos% in decline, PCR Flat
3) Case update
4) Hospitalizations & ICU growth slowing, behind 2020
5) 3 days of Fatality arrival breakdown
1/n
.
THREAD:
Highlights for 8/8:
1) Rate of growth is slowing across the board
2) Antigen pos% in decline, PCR Flat
3) Case update
4) Hospitalizations & ICU growth slowing, behind 2020
5) 3 days of Fatality arrival breakdown
1/n
.
https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1423822886289252353
8/8 Rate of Growth Analysis:
* Antigen Pos% in strong decline (next slide)
* Rest of metrics showing significant slowdown in rate of growth
* Lines up w/ flattening of Rt per Covidestim.org
* PCR Pos% rate of growth nearing zero. Cases & Hosps starting decline
2/n
.
* Antigen Pos% in strong decline (next slide)
* Rest of metrics showing significant slowdown in rate of growth
* Lines up w/ flattening of Rt per Covidestim.org
* PCR Pos% rate of growth nearing zero. Cases & Hosps starting decline
2/n
.
8/8 Positivity Rate:
* Antigen now in a fairly steep decline. Peak moved 2 days forward to 8/1 but a week of declines now.
* PCR rate of growth nearing zero, with the typical weekend peak forming. Will be watching for confirmed peak in next 2-3 days.
3/n
.
* Antigen now in a fairly steep decline. Peak moved 2 days forward to 8/1 but a week of declines now.
* PCR rate of growth nearing zero, with the typical weekend peak forming. Will be watching for confirmed peak in next 2-3 days.
3/n
.
8/5 Cases:
* As mentioned in 2/n, growth rate has begun to slow significantly in past 3 days. Will this continue?
* 7DMA of nearly 10.5K cases per day. About to pass the high for 2020 Summer wave. Mostly a function of more testing vs last year.
4/n
.
* As mentioned in 2/n, growth rate has begun to slow significantly in past 3 days. Will this continue?
* 7DMA of nearly 10.5K cases per day. About to pass the high for 2020 Summer wave. Mostly a function of more testing vs last year.
4/n
.
8/8 Hospitalizations
* Per 2/n, rate of growth is decreasing. Peak rate of growth occurred on 7/31.
* Patients tagged as C19 only 14% of total beds.
* Losing more ground to 2020. 3.9% fewer general beds and 17% fewer ICU than at same point in 2020 Summer wave.
5/n
.
* Per 2/n, rate of growth is decreasing. Peak rate of growth occurred on 7/31.
* Patients tagged as C19 only 14% of total beds.
* Losing more ground to 2020. 3.9% fewer general beds and 17% fewer ICU than at same point in 2020 Summer wave.
5/n
.
8/8 Fatalities Part 1:
* Primer for background info in 7/n
* 2021 numbers thru 7/17, 2020 thru 6/18. 13 months apart.
* 2020 actuals continuing to pad lead over 2021. 28 days in.
* 2 days from new projections, and appears it will be more downward revisions.
6/n
.
* Primer for background info in 7/n
* 2021 numbers thru 7/17, 2020 thru 6/18. 13 months apart.
* 2020 actuals continuing to pad lead over 2021. 28 days in.
* 2 days from new projections, and appears it will be more downward revisions.
6/n
.
8/8 Fatalities Part 2:
* Sorry, primer in 8/n
* 166 reported over last 3 days, up 36% over same period last week. Expected.
* 1st half of July is in with a large divergence between hospitalization & fatalities.
* Same pattern of arrivals holds, little past 2 weeks old
7/n
.
* Sorry, primer in 8/n
* 166 reported over last 3 days, up 36% over same period last week. Expected.
* 1st half of July is in with a large divergence between hospitalization & fatalities.
* Same pattern of arrivals holds, little past 2 weeks old
7/n
.
8/8 - Primer on Fatalities:
The original geeky thread from 7/20/21, where I went step by step through the arrival of death certificates to the state over time. And the model I built around that process.
8/n
.
The original geeky thread from 7/20/21, where I went step by step through the arrival of death certificates to the state over time. And the model I built around that process.
8/n
.
https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1417550891842932737?s=20
8/8 Conclusion:
* Pretty good weekend, even if it doesn't feel like it.
* All indications point to start of decline (antigen) or slowing rate of growth
* Next 2-3 days will be critical to get confirmation of this
* We've got about 1 more week, almost there! Hang on!
9/end
.
* Pretty good weekend, even if it doesn't feel like it.
* All indications point to start of decline (antigen) or slowing rate of growth
* Next 2-3 days will be critical to get confirmation of this
* We've got about 1 more week, almost there! Hang on!
9/end
.
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