Thread by @userofintellect

As a data analyst #AMC ape it was my duty to do my part: The true value of current shares including synthetic shares falls within this range: ~1.5B to ~5.5B with 99% confidence (1% chance the true number falls outside this range). See thread below for data and method. (1/13)

I extrapolated the number of #AMC synthetic shares using advanced statistical software based on the recent SAY shareholder vote and 3 indicators: Sample size, variability in population, & confidence level. (2/13)

Assumptions: a) 63,000 retail investors voted (not randomized so it might be biased & we should control for that- e.g. people with more shares had more tendency to vote).
b) 68,000,000 shares voted for Timothy B (first question)
c) 4,100,000 retail investors exist (3/13)

There are 3 methods of extrapolation. Linear, S-Curve and Mixed-mode Extrapolation. I tried all 3 and got almost the same result. (4/13)

In a perfect world of statistics assuming all people who logged their shares voted for timothy B question on dividend the total value of number of shares would be 4.42 Billions. But we have to control for a few things. (5/13)

Not all people who voted, voted for Timothy B question on dividend. I personally didn't vote for that because companies with debt can not offer dividend. But I later logged back in again and voted for that question because it was the right thing to do to log my shares. (6/13)

If 10% didnt vote for that question the total value of shares would be 4.92 Billions. If 20% didnt the total value of shares would be 5.53 Billions. But it doesnt matter because we assume everyone who logged their shares voted for that question to be conservative. (7/13)

So there is a variability in population and it is not randomized so we have to control for that. Assuming people with more shares had more tendency cast a vote. So we dilute the number of participants to control for small accounts by 100%, and 200% to be sure. (8/13)

If we dilute by 100% to control for small account retails, it means instead of 63000 retail investors 126000 retail logged 68 million shares. And a 200% dilution assumes 189000 retail logged 68 million shares. (9/13)

So with 100% dilution the total shares out there including synthetics would be 2.2 Billions and with 200% the total shares out there including synthetics would be 1.5 billion (the most conservative estimate in the range) (10/13)

As I was curious to see how a 300% dilution would look like It turns out even if we assumes 252000 retail investors logged that many shares (very unlikely by any statistical standard but out of curiosity) we would still have 1.1 billion shares out there. (11/13)

So this puts an end to the discussion on variability in population. period. check mate. (12/13)

If I wanted to do 95% confidence interval which is more common for these type of analysis (instead of 99%) the true average would lie between 1.8B to 4.2B. My statistical gut tells me synthetics are 3 to 4 times the float. This is crazy. (13/13)

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