Thread by @EricHolthaus

The era of rapid climate change has begun.

Both a rapid escalation of consequences, and a rapid escalation of solutions.

Time has run out for anything but radical change.

Here's my 🧵 summary of the new @IPCC_CH report:
thephoenix.substack.com/p/the-era-of-r…

Below, I'll pull out what struck me as the most important points of the new report.

The most important thing is what we do.

If you'd like to read the report yourself, the summary is short (42 pages) and understandable (the graphics are great, honestly) :

https://twitter.com/IPCC_CH/status/1424651556490727426

Every single sentence of the summary report has been unanimously approved by representatives from every country on Earth.
That makes this report a political document, one of the most important in history.
It’s meant to inform negotiations about how to solve the climate emergency.

First, a content warning, and a personal request:

This is a difficult report to read. Chances are, you’ll learn new truths about the climate emergency that will be terrifying in a way you haven't yet felt. That’s what happened to me, at least.

You get to cry. You get to grieve.

You get to be angry. You get to take all the time you need to do these things. You get to ask for help. But you don't get to give up.

I’m asking you not to give up.

Home is Always Worth It.
medium.com/@maryheglar/ho…

Five major takeaways from the IPCC report:

-It’s warming ‘almost everywhere’.
-It’s warming ‘rapidly’.
-It’s been a long time since our planet has been this warm.
-It’s going to get worse before it gets better.
-Fixing it ‘requires’ net zero carbon globally as soon as possible.

These statements, taken together, are the clearest description of how dire the climate emergency has become, and the clearest call to action we’ve ever received on the existential crisis of our time.

The report’s main takeaway, put in a single sentence directly quoted from the report’s press release:

“Unless there are immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to close to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach.”

That means "immediate, rapid, large-scale" change is what we MUST demand — there's a vastly limited future for all of us if it doesn't happen right away.

The most striking part of the report is its of use the word "rapid" prominently, which is a major change from past reports.

The IPCC's use of the word “rapid” underlines that we’ve entered a new phase of the climate emergency.

This news, to me, is the gut punch.

The report breaks down just how unusual recent warming is: now on par with temperatures 125,000 years ago, and CO2 and ocean acidity surpassing anything seen in at least 2 million years.

Human activities have caused essentially all of this warming: 1.07°C out of 1.09°C.

For the first time, the report describes an observed increase in extreme events in hurricanes. Previously, these changes had been too uncertain to gain international consensus.
Extreme weather is now measurably getting worse on every part of every continent.

"Human influence has likely increased the chance of compound extreme events since the 1950s. This includes increases in the frequency of concurrent heatwaves and droughts on the global scale; fire weather in some regions of all inhabited continents; and compound flooding"

The next major takeaway: Under every future scenario, the world will keep getting warmer until at least 2050, even under rapid emissions reductions.

So we have no choice at this point but to prepare for these changes AND try to stop them from getting even worse at the same time.

And the worst bad news is that we’re emitting CO2 so fast that the planet hasn’t had time to catch up. The report describes these changes as “irreversible” on human timescales.

The ocean and ice sheets are the place on Earth most at risk of irreversible change.

From the FAQ:

These extremes could get really bad if we're unlucky.

"ice sheet collapse, abrupt ocean circulation changes, some compound extreme events and warming substantially larger than the assessed very likely range of future warming cannot be ruled out and are part of risk assessment."

The report gives a major update on the 1.5°C warming limit, the basis of the Paris Agreement:

Under every future emissions scenario, we’re now “more likely than not” to at least briefly exceed 1.5°C sometime between now and mid-century, even with rapid emissions reductions.

It's clearly a dire report.

But the report also gives a very clear solution:

"Achieving global net zero CO2 emissions is a requirement for stabilizing CO2-induced global surface temperature increase, with anthropogenic CO2 emissions balanced by anthropogenic removals of CO2."

Using the word “requirement” here is a major step.

What this report says, without explicitly saying it, is that there is no future left for fossil fuels. Every ton of CO2 warms the planet. And we can’t afford to warm the planet anymore, we’re already at the breaking point.

What the report doesn’t say:

There’s no explicit mention of fossil fuels in the new IPCC report at all. No oil. No gas. No coal.

That’s an intentional decision. Every single line of the report was unanimously approved by governments, and there are some governments, of course, that still make a lot of money from fossil fuels.

Climate change isn’t just something that’s happening, it’s being done to us.

It’s up to us — literally you and me — to call out the people who created the climate emergency and demand solutions that work for everyone.

Above all, that means ending the era of fossil fuels, and the influence of extractive capitalism in every aspect of society.

That’s possible more quickly than we think. There’s evidence that a small group of very committed people — as small as 3.5% — can make revolutionary changes.

bbc.com/future/article…

We need bold climate action at every single level of society, from neighborhoods to nations.

The Green New Deal is a framework for simultaneously adapting to the change that’s already locked in and preventing it from getting worse, and building a thriving society in the process.

In November, leaders from every country in the world will meet in Glasgow, Scotland at COP26 to talk about this report & what to do. It’ll be a huge moment in history.

From now, until then, and beyond, we have to take to the streets to demand a planet where everyone can thrive.

One of my big climate anxiety coping strategies is to focus on the possible actions I can take.

Yes, this report is bad, but you don't have to bear the whole thing yourself.
Yes, fixing it is going to be hard, but you don't have to solve the whole thing yourself.

All this week, I’ll be hosting live chats on @TwitterSpaces to talk about the IPCC report. I’d love for you to join me.

Follow @currently for invites & times, and subscribe to Currently to help support a weather service built for the climate emergency.

https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1424637997811736585

To me, the report is equal parts depressing and galvanizing.

To face something like this, we need courage and solidarity.

Every worthwhile thing takes time. And, if we believe this report, the next 20-30 years is the most important time of our whole lives. ✨