#WorldMortality update

Heroic effort by hackers in Belarus to obtain mortality data up to March 2021 as reported by @CurrentTimeTv.
The govt refused to publish after it showed massive excess in Mid 2020.
Excess is 14x times higher than reported COVID at over 32K excess

1
This is ~exactly the same ratio as we reported with data up to June 2020.
The govt had since postponed without explanation scheduled releases of mortality data. @CurrentTimeTv reveals what many knew all along: COVID numbers from Belarus are as fake as fake can be.

2
Daily reported number of COVID deaths in Belarus - capped at 10.
It's not even good forgery. All to serve Lukashenko's image "...he was not involved in election campaign at all. He was concerned with the health and life of people. morning, afternoon, evening, and night"

3
This joins a long list of evidence implicating the Belarussian regime in direct and malicious obfuscation, a campaign of misinformation.
github.com/dkobak/excess-…

4
Belarus is now 4th place in our leaderboard in the extent of it's obfuscation, and 10th place in excess deaths per capita.
Its prob higher in excess deaths % increase - most LA countries have much more current data, and their not trying to hide the extent of COVID.

5
This misinformation campaign spread well beyond Belarus.
Israeli-American professor claiming that Belarus' low COVID deaths without NPIs is due to "Honest communication and trust with its' citizens."
My piece on this (Hebrew, google translate it!)
makorrishon.co.il/opinion/312685/

6
Read the original incredible piece by @CurrentTimeTv. It's in Russian. Use google translate! It's well worth your while. It's an incredible journalistic and civic effort in action.
Everybody deserves open and honest data and government.

currenttime.tv/a/smertnost-v-…

7
Latest data, as always, is publicly available here: github.com/akarlinsky/wor…

Latest analysis here: github.com/dkobak/excess-…

Paper here: doi.org/10.7554/eLife.…

8
Who's next? Nicaragua? @confidencial_ni
Turkey? @GucluYaman
Turkmenistan? @eurasianet

Follow them to find out!

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More from @ArielKarlinsky

10 Aug
עדכון #WorldMortality

מאמץ הרואי של האקרים בבלארוס להשיג נתוני תמותה עד למרץ 2021. הממשל הפסיק לפרסם נתוני כאלה אחרי אמצע 2020 שכבר בהם ראו תמותה עודפת משמעותית. דיווח של @CurrentTimeTv שסייענו לו.

היחס בין התמותה העודפת (יותר מ-32 אלף) לתמותה המדווחת מקורונה הוא פי 14.

1 Image
זהו כמעט בדיוק אותתו יחס כפי שמצאנו כאשר היו לנו רק נתונים רשמיים עד יוני 2020.

מאז, הממשל שם דחה כמה פעמים ללא הסבר פרסום נתוני תמותה. הדיווח של @CurrentTimeTv מאשש את מה שרבים ידעו כבר מזמן: דיווחי הקורונה של בלארוס מזויפים לחלוטין. @YurkaGagarin


2
בלארוס מדווחת נפטרי קורונה - לעולם לא דיווחה על יותר מ-10 נפטרים ביממה.

זה אפילו לא זיוף טוב. כל זה נעשה בשביל לחזק את התדמית של הדיקטטור לוקאשנקו כמי ש"לא חושב בכלל על בחירות... הוא דואג רק לבריאות האזרחים, יום, ערב ואפילו בלילה".

3 Image
Read 12 tweets
3 Aug
Excess mortality across the world with the World Mortality Dataset - officially published at @eLife!

elifesciences.org/articles/69336

A thread on data, findings, and more.

1

(Illustration by Gal Kabiri)
Excess mortality - increase of the all-cause mortality expected mortality based on historic trends, has long been used to estimate the death toll of pandemics and other extreme events. From the 17th century at least up to more recent events like Hurricane Maria in 2017.

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No matter how estimate are made, they require data on all cause mortality. In #WorldMortality Dataset we have collected data from over 100 countries and territories from all corners of the world.

3
Read 17 tweets
20 Jul
More estimates of excess mortality in India coming out. This time from @JustinSandefur @arvindsubraman @abhishekecon.
How do these compare with other countries in #WorldMortality? It goes right up the "leaderboard" as you can see.

1
Low or high estimate, India total excess mortality is much higher than the previous top (US) at 3.4 or 4.9 MILLION excess deaths.

But India is HUGE. @UNStats population estimate at over 1.38 BILLION people -> high excess per pop size, goes down to 9th place. low: 24th.

2
The undercount ratio, excess deaths divided by official reported COVID death counts for the same time period (end of June 2021 in this case) is very high in these estimates for India: 8.5 to 12.25 times officially reported deaths (~400 thousand). 6-7th place.

3
Read 7 tweets
6 May
@IHME_UW just released a report estimating excess deaths at about 2x total COVID deaths in the world.

The details of the analysis are here: healthdata.org/special-analys…

While important and prob true, I'm left with quite a few questions about this particular estimate.

1/
Their data comes form "56 countries and 198 subnational units have reported either weekly or monthly deaths from all causes for parts of 2020 and for prior years. " but where is it? The References listed are scant and include a few NSOs.

2/
After estimating excess deaths with some ensemble models for the countries they do have, they project it using various covariates to other countries. But which are projections and which are actual data? unclear.

3/
Read 12 tweets
12 Apr
Updated version of #WorldMortality by @hippopedoid and I is up on @medrxivpreprint.

doi.org/10.1101/2021.0…

Many updates, check it out.
Here are some highlights:

1
Our coverage increased from 79 countries and territories in the previous version to 89 and the time frame covered increased substantially, with many countries already reporting 2021 data.

2
We extended the introduction a bit, showcasing the vast historical usage of excess mortality in epidemiology - this method is not new at all and is extremely well established.

3
Read 10 tweets
29 Jan
אני מכריז בזאת על פרסום ראשוני של מאמר ומסד נתונים על תמותה עולמית שנוצרו משת"פ שלי עם ד"ר דמיטרי קובלק מאוניברסיטת טובינגן בגרמניה.

בקצרה: אספנו נתוני תמותה (מכל הסיבות) מ-79 מדינות (והיד עוד נטויה...) ואמדנו את התמותה העודפת בזמן מגפת הקורונה ברחבי העולם.

>>
הניתוח שלנו מעלה המון ממצאים מרתקים ומדכאים לגבי ההיקף הפחות ידוע של מגפת הקורונה. אני אתן לתרשימים לדבר בעד עצמם - מבטיח רשומה מפורטת בבלוג בקרוב.
בנוסף - לא הסתפקנו בניתוחים משל עצמנו, ואנחנו משחררים את מאגר המידע הייחודי (הגדול מסוגו בעולם!) לשימוש קהילת המחקר והציבור הרחב.
המאמר: doi.org/10.1101/2021.0…

מסד הנתונים: github.com/akarlinsky/wor…
Read 6 tweets

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