Thread by @RogerPielkeJr

Climate change is real
Aggressive adaptation & mitigation policies make good sense (as I’ve argued for 25 yrs)

Being accurate w/ climate science is thus really important

If you actually read IPCC WG1 report you’ll find it less apocalyptic than you’ve been told (sorry!)

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https://twitter.com/rogerpielkejr/status/1424711728898535425

Two big issues

1. IPCC relies excessively on extreme scenarios it deems unlikely. This is the fault of the IPCC.

2. IPCC is accurate on global trends in weather extremes. In key cases, finding none - storms, floods, met & hydro drought. Activists/media fail to report this.

There’s a powerful current of millenarianism in the climate discourse

I get it

End of times narratives feed a powerful human need

But IPCC report isn’t a sacred text previewing the apocalypse, regardless what you’re being told

You are safe
We will be OK

Sorry if this offends

Achieving net zero CO2 is a huge challenge and it will take much of the 21st century to achieve it

It’s not gonna happen by 2030 or 2040 or even 2050 but the world is well positioned to make it happen

IPCC says under current policies present world is on track for 2.7C by 2100

Of course there’s uncertainties in temperature projections, it could be worse

At the same time “current policies” are always pessimistic because policies actually change

So hitting a stabilization target consistent with 2 deg C is going to take a lot of effort but it’s in reach

You don’t have to take my word for it

Take the word of the scenarios of the IPCC most consistent with the century so far and current policies to 2040: osf.io/preprints/soca…

These say we are on track for 2.2 deg C by 2100

Of course coming climate changes, variability & surprises mean that we must up our game on adaptation

The good news is that society has never been less vulnerable to climate extremes

We are in 2021 in an enviable position to continue that trend even in the face of uncertainties

More good news on extreme events

The gap has never been larger between the evidence and media reports, advocacy messaging & political fear tactics

There have not been increases on climate time scales in storms, floods, m&h droughts

Don’t believe, me - that’s IPCC!

There have been increase in heat waves, some measures of extreme precipitation (not = floods) & A&S drought - again from IPCC

So yes change is real but at the same time not everything that happens is caused by or made worse by climate change

It’s OK, we can say it!

Last comment
There are incredible pressures & consequences for expressing the views that I just have, even though they’re firmly grounded in evidence & IPCC

The culture of climate discourse is incredibly unhealthy - that needs fixing

But I have tenure & optimism, a nice combo🙏