No, @TracyBethHoeg, the article you point to does not claim delta is not "resulting in increased rates of in-school transmission”. In fact, it says the opposite. 🧵
Speaking of the 12 presumed cases of in-school transmission for the summer, the article offers this: "By way of comparison, the district reported 2 cases of apparant transmission during the regular school year." latimes.com/california/sto…
In fact, the article very explicitly implicates Delta in the rise of infections.
Regarding infections generally, the article reports 20 infections for the first week, increasing to 59 the final week for a total of 174 infections over the 5 weeks summer period.
In terms of rates, the article states that over the summer, general infection rates went from 1 in 1,000 to 6 in 1,000.
What's more, the article makes clear the involvement of mitigation in the somewhat surprising containment of Delta.
Yet despite the article, despite the preponderance of evidence pointing to the importance of mitigation, when @TracyBethHoeg is confronted in the replies about the role of mitigation in the summer program's control of Delta she says, "just can't say what amount if any they made"
A line which itself is almost straight out of "Merchants of Doubt" because the strategy of the denier is not to offer evidence but to raise doubt as if you "just can't say" whether mitigation makes a difference.
But of course, we can say, there's endless evidence mitigation makes a difference yet here @KrugAlli and @tracyhoeg go on as if none of it makes a difference because, why not just ignore everything else and make you case based on an outlier, Denmark?
Which Denmark, by the way, currently has five times as many cases as Germany and is the leader in cases amongst its neighbors. But sure, that's the way to go.
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While @ProfEmilyOster denies consulting with @GovRonDeSantis, she hasn’t yet repudiated her study. She should. The study claims to show mitigations don't work but has so many design flaws, even effective measures would fail her trials. Very long🧵. nytimes.com/2021/06/22/us/…
Probably because they’re assumed to be the “gold standard”, Oster’s studies employ the all the signs of being Randomized Control Trials (RCTs) in which mitigations: mask mandates, in-person density and ventilation are compared with schools absent those same mitigations.
Oster’s conclusion is, more or less, that mitigations make no difference to Covid case counts in students, staff and teachers associated with schools.
They won't stop will they? Despite the evidence that cases in kids rise even when adults are well vaccinated (see the UK), the fact is an adult vaccinated today is weeks away from providing indirect protection. They have no interim plan except widespread infection of kids.
This CDC presentation of yet-to-be-published data shows kids:
* transmit as efficiently as adults
* are infected at rates similar to adults.
It's not getting the attention it deserves perhaps because it's only available as video. I've done my best to faithfully transcribe it.🧵
"If you do not look for children outside of universal studies, you are probably going to miss them.
From various studies, when testing systematically for children exposed to SCV-2, children are as likely to have infection detected as adults.
However, one caveat to consider is that the risk of exposure for children relative to adults has changed dramatically during the course of the pandemic. For example, at the start of the pandemic a full societal shutdown likely benefitted children more than adults .....
A truly laughable attempt by @TracyBethHoeg to pretend the divisions this Nature article points to aren't between her and every other expert quoted. 🧵
Hoeg is first quoted saying the rates in schools aren't higher than rates in the communities a point the article is quick to distinguish from what actually matters: whether transmission is occurring in schools.
In a familiar move, Hoeg goes on to pretend the 2 *confirmed* transmission cases reported in a soon-to-be-published study, represent all of the cases that occurred in the schools. The article again is quick to call her bluff by bringing up the importance of surveillence testing.
I have a question for people attempting to downplay the CDC report on hospitalized children. 🧵
WTAF is wrong with you?
First, it tells us that hospitalized kids get very, very sick indeed. 33% needed ICU care. 5% needed mechanical ventilation. So I ask again, if you are downplaying the CDC report:
WTAF is wrong with you?
Second, it doesn't imply "only" 204 kids were hospitalized. The CDC's data is from Covid-Net & is limited to certain states.
But kids aren't supposed to be hospitalized *at all* so if you are downplaying this again:
The article starts by considering risks and dismissing them because they are so low they don’t justify “the remaining restrictions [kids] face” by which they seem to mean masks.
Maybe it’s just me but freeing kids from the minor inconvenience of a mask so they can face the risk of Covid barefaced is like arguing the restrictions of seatbelts aren’t worth it because that’s outweighed by the joys of going through the windshield. 😱