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Andrew Flood Profile picture
@andrewflood
Aug 11, 2021 • 17 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
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There a seriously misleading error on the HSE advice page about vaccinating 12-15 years olds where is says the hospital risk of Covid is 1 in 100,000. In fact 1% of those cases under 14 to December were hospitalised, 63 in 5-14 are group, 60 in 0 to 4.
This is the error & the stats to December for actual hospitalisations by age here - it was close to 1% at that point
www2.hse.ie/screening-and-… ImageImage
This stat appears in the CMO letter to the Minister of 26th July. It looks like NIAC may have just been talking of severe events in the 2 week period highlighted and not the entire pandemic? Image
Quite hard to understand that segment in the letter as NIAC appear to also say there have been less than 5 under 19 ICU admissions but there are 6 under 14s ones in the stats above and 18 mentioned here
Comparing to CSO data their no deaths also appears to be wrong? CSO uses 0 if there are none and .. if the figure is less than 5. If you total the deaths by age it comes to 4615, 5 less than the Total Confirmed deaths in the 2nd line suggest 5 of unknown age or beween 0-24. Image
Hmm that 1 in 100k figure may be intended to exclude the 'children with certain health conditions' in the next line? So perhaps all the stats given - without saying this is what is being done - exclude children with underlying conditions? But are these always detected already? Image
Text now updated but that question I have about whether all such underlying conditions were known about pre-Covid hospitalisation applies. If not parents can hardly make a meaningful risk assessment on that 1 per 100k basis. The link to conditions includes being over 60! Image
In general so far NIAC have proven to have been giving good advice even when lots of us initially thought they were not. I remain unconvinced that they have offered a meaningful risk comparison here. Im going to try to find the original 1 in 100k to see if conditions were known
Current hospitalisation by age data hasn't been available for the south for some time but here it is for the north, top line is 0-19 age group. Despite being about 25% of cases recently that age is about 1-3% of all hospitalisations
Twitter upload pixelated the video too much for the numbers to be readable - got to page 23 of the link & hover the cursor over the curves & a pop up shows you an age hospital breakdown by day. From July 1st 0-19 has been in a range from 1 to 10 app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjo…
I've found the detailed NIAC advice that HSE page summarises. However full version has elements that contradict that 1 per 100k. In particular US figure for 71% with at least 1 comorbidity as 29% of our 1 per 100 would be 3 per 1000 risk not 1 per 100k

rcpi-live-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/upl… ImageImage
In terms of risk evaluation this English comparative risk of "1 in 200 kids w/ covid hospitalised compares to 1 in 25,000 for vax" seems relevent. Ihttps://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1425728490716946432?s=20
Some Irish data here showing that 1% hospitalisation of cases under 19 was the average this Spring
From yesterdays HSE press conference
About 90 12-15 years olds hospitalised with Covid19 in Ireland so far
Not sure when but at some stage that misleading 1 per 100k 'opinion as statistic' line got removed & the US stat I highlighted above of 3 in 7 not having an underlying conditions added in. Page last updated 24 August 2021 Image
Went to the CDC to see what they were observing but their data is limited - what is interesting is that in the hospitals they monitor which had 3649 paediatric hospitalisations 46.5% of hospitalised children did not have an underlying condition
gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet… ImageImage
Google 'CIDR Hospital admission probability and length of stay among Covid-19 confirmed cases' and you should get to this Irish report where it would appear 0.6% of 5-12s were hospitalised to April with what looks like a 2-3 day average stay with 13-18 abs double that rate /🧵 ImageImage

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More from @andrewflood

Andrew Flood Profile picture
May 5
With the trap carefully baited & SF blundering into it here’s the spring being sprung. Farage & Dowson cackling with glee as their weird investment pays off. It’s a trap all the way down of course because … /1
…. The reality is the border as it exists is not policeable. So a token PR effort will be easily evaded but with anti ‘Open borders’ politics accepted you are in a cycle of closing minor roads, checkpoints & fences. Be putting the watchtowers back up in no time /2
It gets dafter - 82% want to go through an expensive deportation process to somewhere we have a common travel area with & where people deported can just walk back across any of the 400+ border crossing points again you can see where accepting this logic rapidly leads /3
Read 5 tweets
Andrew Flood Profile picture
Apr 29, 2023
Finbar Cafferkey who died resisting the Russian invasion of Ukraine Apr19 was a friend & comrade who for the two decades I knew him consistently put himself in harms way to oppose injustice. Whether that was fighting Shell or ISIS or going to Kos to help refugees come ashore/1 ImageImage
This video is him singing Glengad Strand outside Mountjoy prison in 2009 when another Shell to Sea activitist was held within. These photos show him at S2S protests from 2008 where he is in the sea under a digger dumping tons of gravel to 2013 confronting Shell's security /2
I have another recording of him singing it around 2015 at a bonfire in 'squat city' when he was one of about 30 people occupying & living in the huge squatted complex at Grangegorman - an intense struggle targeting landlordism & property speculation /3
Read 20 tweets
Andrew Flood Profile picture
Mar 24, 2022
Reluctantly returning to #Covid19Ireland updates until the current crisis passes. Todays 1425 Covid hospital cases is 138% last Thursday but the size of that increase will be partially driven by the bank holiday increasing discharges last week & delaying them this week /1
The running total of new hospital cases in last 7 days is a better guide, the 1240 new hospital cases this week is 112% previous week & well above January 2022 wave. Even allowing for so called 'incidental' increasing from 30% to 50% this is a huge pressure on healthcare /2
Thankfully the proportion of cases going to hospital (1.42%)is not rising to pre-booster levels so vaccines are holding up well in terms of severe outcomes. The small rise is probably just under testing - as before more cases mean more hospitalisations so we need cases to peak/3
Read 9 tweets
Andrew Flood Profile picture
Mar 23, 2022
Ireland just had its highest every 24 hour number of New Hospital Cases at 225, the previous high was 209 on 21st January 2022. The government 'head in the sand' approach to the 'exit wave' has now put the health service under threat again & threatens the need for restrictions/1
The 1395 in hospital is 129% last Wednesday with average stay now at 9 days
1194 new hospital case this week is 108% previous
Donnelly has yet to create a new advisory committee & has no access to modelling so we are relying on his guesswork which is not confidence inspiring/2
We are basically praying that we have or are about to hit the infection peak and so in 7-10 days the rate of new hospital cases will start to reduce. Which *might* happen, proportion of cases going to hospital is falling & Denmark has seen a far in cases & hospital numbers/3
Read 11 tweets
Andrew Flood Profile picture
Mar 21, 2022
Occasional #Covid19Ireland analysis - that 1308 in hospital today with Covid is 125% last Monday & one of the highest days of the pandemic but is this simply the human cost of the 'exit wave' or indicating something has gone very wrong /1 Image
So far I'd lean towards this being the *expected* cost, the key metric of the proportion of cases that are hospital cases(1.36%) is still far below pre-Booster peak even though we know cases are comparatively undercounted since which would push that proportion up /2 Image
The increase in hospital cases is real enough, 1151 new hospital cases this week is 118% previous. About 1/2 are being described as incidental but that doesn't cancel out the increase in recent weeks as that was also true when it started /3 Image
Read 15 tweets
Andrew Flood Profile picture
Mar 7, 2022
Not happy to be doing this but the #Covid19Ireland hospital stats over last few days are not great - the 808 in hospital today are 132% last Monday so the obvious rise in the graph is not just the usual weekend increase /1
The number of new hospital cases each week has also risen almost as rapidly, 749 new hospital cases this week are 124% of the previous week /2
ICU is less definitive but it lags hospital cases by a few days and we *might* be seeing the start of a rise with the 21 new ICU cases this week at 110% previous /3
Read 9 tweets

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