Thread by @andrewflood

There a seriously misleading error on the HSE advice page about vaccinating 12-15 years olds where is says the hospital risk of Covid is 1 in 100,000. In fact 1% of those cases under 14 to December were hospitalised, 63 in 5-14 are group, 60 in 0 to 4.

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1425408169535328262

This is the error & the stats to December for actual hospitalisations by age here - it was close to 1% at that point
www2.hse.ie/screening-and-…

This stat appears in the CMO letter to the Minister of 26th July. It looks like NIAC may have just been talking of severe events in the 2 week period highlighted and not the entire pandemic?

Quite hard to understand that segment in the letter as NIAC appear to also say there have been less than 5 under 19 ICU admissions but there are 6 under 14s ones in the stats above and 18 mentioned here

https://twitter.com/DeeGilhawley/status/1425443538909728776?s=20

Comparing to CSO data their no deaths also appears to be wrong? CSO uses 0 if there are none and .. if the figure is less than 5. If you total the deaths by age it comes to 4615, 5 less than the Total Confirmed deaths in the 2nd line suggest 5 of unknown age or beween 0-24.

Hmm that 1 in 100k figure may be intended to exclude the 'children with certain health conditions' in the next line? So perhaps all the stats given - without saying this is what is being done - exclude children with underlying conditions? But are these always detected already?

Text now updated but that question I have about whether all such underlying conditions were known about pre-Covid hospitalisation applies. If not parents can hardly make a meaningful risk assessment on that 1 per 100k basis. The link to conditions includes being over 60!

In general so far NIAC have proven to have been giving good advice even when lots of us initially thought they were not. I remain unconvinced that they have offered a meaningful risk comparison here. Im going to try to find the original 1 in 100k to see if conditions were known

https://twitter.com/greg_travis/status/1425581435663101961

Current hospitalisation by age data hasn't been available for the south for some time but here it is for the north, top line is 0-19 age group. Despite being about 25% of cases recently that age is about 1-3% of all hospitalisations

Twitter upload pixelated the video too much for the numbers to be readable - got to page 23 of the link & hover the cursor over the curves & a pop up shows you an age hospital breakdown by day. From July 1st 0-19 has been in a range from 1 to 10 app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjo…

I've found the detailed NIAC advice that HSE page summarises. However full version has elements that contradict that 1 per 100k. In particular US figure for 71% with at least 1 comorbidity as 29% of our 1 per 100 would be 3 per 1000 risk not 1 per 100k

rcpi-live-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/upl…

In terms of risk evaluation this English comparative risk of "1 in 200 kids w/ covid hospitalised compares to 1 in 25,000 for vax" seems relevent. Ihttps://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1425728490716946432?s=20

Some Irish data here showing that 1% hospitalisation of cases under 19 was the average this Spring

https://twitter.com/StuartDNeilson/status/1425737749357899777

From yesterdays HSE press conference
About 90 12-15 years olds hospitalised with Covid19 in Ireland so far

Not sure when but at some stage that misleading 1 per 100k 'opinion as statistic' line got removed & the US stat I highlighted above of 3 in 7 not having an underlying conditions added in. Page last updated 24 August 2021

Went to the CDC to see what they were observing but their data is limited - what is interesting is that in the hospitals they monitor which had 3649 paediatric hospitalisations 46.5% of hospitalised children did not have an underlying condition
gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet…

Google 'CIDR Hospital admission probability and length of stay among Covid-19 confirmed cases' and you should get to this Irish report where it would appear 0.6% of 5-12s were hospitalised to April with what looks like a 2-3 day average stay with 13-18 abs double that rate /🧵