I have had some DMs asking how UK can both be under threat of severe food shortages with decimated (not enough trucks) supply chains but also be needing permanent Op Brock legislation...
Let's see if I can explain again in simple terms
The above illustrated queue is typical Belarussia into EU pre-Covid impacted levels of traffic...now imagine how little comparitive trade there is between Russia
(transiting Belarussia) & Belarussia/EU.
Yet such queues..why?
Answer: The processing throughput through the border reflects Belarussia being outside the Single Market and outside the/a customs union with the EU and not having any legal convergence (wanting the right of full divergence) agreement.
Ring any bells on a new EU "relationship"?
Now imagine the (albeit dropping off quickly) volumes of trade between GB & EU..& the fact UK does not have the evolved logistics (drivers), customs & SPS capacity to reflect its now "Belarussian" status. IF same volumes of pre-Covid pre-end of transition traffic were to reappear
this is where GB would see the "7000 truck" queues to Dover (7000 nose to tail being approx 80 miles)...but never going to see such queues as trade was always going to fall quickly away in conjunction with EU (any) hauliers/drivers not coming "to fill the gaps" in enough numbers
However any bounceback on volumes of ret'd name-your-price driver accompanied RoRo EU lorries will still create greater than Belarussian/EU volume queues..
but yet continued constricted to wholly buggered supply shortages on meeting post Covid growing levels of food *etc* demand
I note there have been many opinions that business has had "plenty of time" to adjust for a life outside the SM/CU...putting aside the ignorance of some not appreciating what would be needed/how things would adversely change regardless of the "Canada style"/any FTA deal ...1/
including incredibly & inexcusably the acute ignorance from the Chairman of @marksandspencer ..
consider this: for life outside the SM/CU the UK needed an extra 50,000 customs agents (Gov accepted figure); approx 5,000 customs officers; approx 2,000 vets/health inspectors & ..2/
of course the now well documented tens of thousands of HGV drivers
None of these were *needed* until day 1 out of the SM/CU...they were all redundant until then. Market forces dictated that no business would've invested heavily here while still operating as part of the SM/CU..3/
The long warned of convergent world wide container shipping/ports crisis. Where UK Gov chose to add in its Brexit RoRo/LoLo shipping/ports trade with neighbours major constriction/rising costs/crisis. h/t @BrokenTwittyforbes.com/sites/forbesbu…
As above report states in container shipping/ports (rather similar parallel to self inflicted brexit RoRo/LoLo ports) "food is piling high in all the wrong places" "What’s more, high freight rates have caused retailers to either cancel contracts, bulk buy or delay purchases" 2/
"With the prospect of food shortages escalating prices, increased consumer pressure on the price of food as well as high shipping costs, many buyers are worried"
What Gov would *choose* to add Perfect Storm major trade barriers into this known unfolding world shipping crisis? 3/
From a friend in GB: "Now is the time I am going to restock my tinned meat supply..I STILL think UK govt will not do anything about border controls for at least another year. They're v. quiet about developments like BIPs, LMS, Customs Officers. I don't think they are even trying"
Liz Webster, a Wiltshire farmer who sells meat to Marks & Spencer, has said that while the pandemic has undoubtedly been a contributing factor, these issues began with Brexit – not the ‘pingdemic’.
“[The right-wing media] are trying to scapegoat the blame onto the Test and Trace
because they want to deflect the blame from Brexit,” she said today. “It’s a convenient scapegoat. The real problem at the heart of food shortages is Brexit. That’s it. No other country is having these issues. Supermarkets in France (anywhere in EU) are having no food shortages.”
It isn’t just supermarkets either. Pubs and restaurants everywhere are feeling the knock-on effects of the disruption caused by Brexit. bylinetimes.com/2021/07/22/a-c…
@TOrynski sent me a blog which I have transposed into a tweet thread as follows:
Reasons for UK Driver Shortages 1. Brexit itself.
Let’s get that one out of the way straight away. British imports and exports plunged in the months after Brexit. We initially haven’t noticed it
thanks to the stockpiling, but Britain started to run out of its stock. And even if not, the stock still needs to be transported. The EU trucks were responsible for a lot of internal UK transport thanks to cabotage rules.
What does this mean?
Imagine you are arriving in your German trucks and unload your cargo in Coventry. Then you have to load the cargo back to Germany in Glasgow.
To avoid driving empty all the way from Midlands to Scotland you pick a load going that way,
"More than half (56%) of UK hauliers are considering moving their operations to the EU"
Alleviating the shortage across EU even further; making the shortage in GB yet worse.
"Almost a third (31%) say they are avoiding working with the food & drinks industry, due to increased checks & admin on products. Other sectors impacted include livestock farming (25%), agricultural farming (25%), gardening supplies (19%) & retail (13%)."
This will get worse as..