There needs to be truth-telling about the reduced protection of mRNA vaccines vs symptomatic Delta infections.
It was 95% pre-Delta.
Many are claiming it's still ~80%.
It isn't.
50-60% is best estimate from all sources (not US, since we don't have the data)
Why is this important?
Because we need to protect the protected, the fully vaccinated.
Sure we want to get more people vaccinated, but truth engenders trust. And truth helps guide people to be safe, use masks, distance, ventilation and all the other tools we have and know helps.
Look at Israel's Delta case surge, a model country for vaccination, >15 per cent points more of total population vaccinated than the US. That, in itself, tells us about the reduction of protection of mRNA vaccines vs cases/spread
I stand by my estimate, which includes soon to be published preprints with US data even lower than this range.
But the protection vs hospitalization and death is solid, holding up well, and is the reason why everyone should be vaccinated
More data summarized here, and more to come out soon
The Mayo Clinic study of 42% Pfizer vaccine efffectiveness vs Delta infections noted
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Physical activity and the reduction of all-cause mortality, from 2 very large prospective cohorts 1. The relationship is non-linear, suggesting a threshold effect for many types of exercise as seen below
2. Engaging in > 1 type of physical activity was generally correlated with better outcomes compared with 1 type (T1,2,3)
People age 70+ should not be taking aspirin at any dose for prevention. Results of randomized trials show higher risk of all-cause mortality, major bleeding events and deaths from cancer. p 153, SUPER AGERS book
President Trump takes 325 mg aspirin/day. The randomized trials tested 75-81 mg/day. His doctors recommended low-dose aspirin for heart event prevention. That recommendation is ill-founded based upon best evidence in older individuals. nejm.org/doi/full/10.10… academic.oup.com/eurheartj/arti…
As I wrote in SUPER AGERS, the immune system is the key to modulating our aging process and the opportunity to extend healthspan. Today @NatureAging 7 new articles, summarized here, that reinforce its central role nature.com/articles/s4358…
The new special issue @ScienceMagazine features Immunity with 4 outstanding review papers, 5★
Our immune system over the lifespan, sex differences, influence on physiology, and host antiviral defenses science.org/toc/science/cu…
We've learned a lot more about the principal drivers of age-related diseases in the past few weeks. And that leads to a unified model to pull it all together. (open-access)
I review 4 new reports, summarized here: 1. The proteins from senescent cells predict age-related clinical outcomes 2. A new epigenetic age clock connects the dots between aging, the immune system, inflammation and lifestyle factors 3. People with a fast pace of aging had an increased risk of cognitive impairment, age-related diseases, disability, and mortality 4. The Importance of “Immune Resilience” for Healthspan
And present a unified I/I model for what we now know
Most people haven’t heard of this test, which is available in the US. It accurately predicts Alzheimer’s (not just if there’s a risk, but when). It is favorably affected by exercise and likely many other lifestyle factors.
Here’s (almost) everything we know about it. In Ground Truths (link in my profile d/t X-suppression)