8/11 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:
THREAD:
Highlights for 8/11:
1) PCR Pos% rate of growth new low, still hunting for a peak
2) Case rate of growth plummeting
3) Hospitalizations still hot
4) Breakdown on 112 reported fatalities
1/n
.
THREAD:
Highlights for 8/11:
1) PCR Pos% rate of growth new low, still hunting for a peak
2) Case rate of growth plummeting
3) Hospitalizations still hot
4) Breakdown on 112 reported fatalities
1/n
.
https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1425164778696232968?s=20
8/11 Positivity Rates:
* PCR Pos% .07% higher than 8/6 peak. Lots of revisions every day to dates 2-10 days back so we will see where it lands
* PCR Pos% rate of growth new low of 4.1% week over week
* Angiten Pos% peaked 8/1. Slight bump today, but not uncommon.
2/n
.
* PCR Pos% .07% higher than 8/6 peak. Lots of revisions every day to dates 2-10 days back so we will see where it lands
* PCR Pos% rate of growth new low of 4.1% week over week
* Angiten Pos% peaked 8/1. Slight bump today, but not uncommon.
2/n
.
8/11 Rate of Growth Analysis:
* For Case & Hosp the RoG is Week over Week 7DMAs
* PCR Pos% rate of growth down to 4.1%
* Case rate of growth plummeting, down to 12.5%
* Hospitalization rate of growth down to 39.7%
3/n
.
* For Case & Hosp the RoG is Week over Week 7DMAs
* PCR Pos% rate of growth down to 4.1%
* Case rate of growth plummeting, down to 12.5%
* Hospitalization rate of growth down to 39.7%
3/n
.
8/11 Cases:
* Good day here
* 14.2K cases reported, down from last Wednesday's 15.6K
* 3rd time in 6 days that the 7DMA has declined, now at 10.3K cases per day
* Case rate of growth down to 12.5%
* ~8/15 peak is a real possibility
* Cases may peak before PCR% Pos% LOL
4/n
* Good day here
* 14.2K cases reported, down from last Wednesday's 15.6K
* 3rd time in 6 days that the 7DMA has declined, now at 10.3K cases per day
* Case rate of growth down to 12.5%
* ~8/15 peak is a real possibility
* Cases may peak before PCR% Pos% LOL
4/n
8/11 Hospitalizations
* Still running hot today. Rates of growth are slowing and leading indicators point to similar rate decline in coming days, but need to see it.
* Still running behind 2020. 2021 ICUs still far behind. 2021 Gen beds making up ground now.
5/n
.
* Still running hot today. Rates of growth are slowing and leading indicators point to similar rate decline in coming days, but need to see it.
* Still running behind 2020. 2021 ICUs still far behind. 2021 Gen beds making up ground now.
5/n
.
8/11 Fatalities Part 1:
* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 numbers through 7/20. 2021 through 6/21. 13 months apart.
* same story as the past several weeks. 2020 Summer wave well outpacing 2021 Summer wave through the above dates
6/n
.
* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 numbers through 7/20. 2021 through 6/21. 13 months apart.
* same story as the past several weeks. 2020 Summer wave well outpacing 2021 Summer wave through the above dates
6/n
.
8/11 Fatalities Part 2:
* 112 reported today +52 over last Wednesday
* 84% of them in the past 2 weeks or from 6+ months ago
* These increasing fatalities are expected with this # of hospitalizations
* Nothing coming in for July 1-23, as per arrival pattern the past month
7/n
.
* 112 reported today +52 over last Wednesday
* 84% of them in the past 2 weeks or from 6+ months ago
* These increasing fatalities are expected with this # of hospitalizations
* Nothing coming in for July 1-23, as per arrival pattern the past month
7/n
.
8/11 Conclusion:
* Mixed bag today
* PCR Pos% isn't going down without a fight
* Case rate growth falling off a cliff. Hopefully this continues
* Hospitalizations, ready to see some slowing growth, like tomorrow
* 8/15 Case peak is a real possibility as of right now
9/end
* Mixed bag today
* PCR Pos% isn't going down without a fight
* Case rate growth falling off a cliff. Hopefully this continues
* Hospitalizations, ready to see some slowing growth, like tomorrow
* 8/15 Case peak is a real possibility as of right now
9/end
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