Time to learn something new. Let's understand SaaS/Cloud Product valuation metrics, what matter most & what means what. Here it goes.
Churn Rate: A % of customers you are churning. Tracked both monthly & annually. A 5% churn rate means you are losing about 50% of your total customers every year, while new ones are coming in.
A churn rate of 2% is common & but close to 0 is ideal. Anything more than 3% is no good & will burn capital. Create product-market mismatch quiet often.
CAC: cost to acquire a customer. In legacy product space, customer reference is an extremely important aspect. Companies find it very hard to make a sale without reference customer.
Companies go from giving initial 10 licenses for free, bearing the loss in books only to have those customers become reference customers.
Come Cloud/Saas Model, reference matter more in enterprise space not in consumer space. Since the subscription or PAU model allows companies to not spend a bomb & cut ties if product doesn't fit. Customer reference is still an important, if not the most important, aspect
Once a company is ready with list of customer reference in every domain, the CAC dips sharply! Customer events that brings all customers of the company & potential new clients closer is the deal maker.
ARR/MMR: Annual Run Rate / Monthly Run Rate. AKA Annual Recurring Revenue or Monthly Recurring Revenue. The ARR/MRR expansion % is also a very important metric.
ARR/MRR expansion rate is a ratio of additional ARR/MRR from existing customers to the Previous Month/year ARR. It simply indicates if a company is able to upsell/cross-sell more to the existing customers or it needs more new clients to maintain the revenue.
But ARR/MRR expansion rate is not enough. What more do we need to really predict if a company is indeed able to gain pocket share of existing customers, retaining more customers, and growing? Let's see.
We already know what a churn rate is, but that is in %. You can also translate this metric into revenue churn. For e.g. your ARR is 10cr, your churn rate is 10%, you are leaking 1cr work of revenue despite the perception that you are growing.
You simply add the new ARR/MRR to the expansion ARR/MRR which sum of all earnings from existing clients and then subtract the revenue churn from this. You get a negative churn. If your ARR/MRR Expansion rate is high w/ negative churn, you can be sure that company is doing great
But again, churn is more valid for pure play SaaS products/companies. For enterprise cloud products this may not be that relevant.
Changing how you recognize the revenue can also have deep impact on your cashflows. Back in 2000, Salesforce was struggling to keep positive cashflow since the dotcom crash dried the funding.
Salesforce changed revenue recognition method & bill rate from monthly to yearly, in advance & they turned cashflow +ve. You may say that this is an accounting gimmick, but if your churn is low, ARR/MRR expansion is high, this isn't an accounting gimmick but a thoughtful change
So which are some amazing Saas Companies clocking super amazing MRR/ARR?
EmailOctopus - Built in competition to mailchimp. Clocks $1.4mn ARR
User[dot]com - Marketing automation platform, clocks $150k MRR
Zencastr - Podcast platform, clocks $20mn ARR
ReConvert - A simple Shopify app to generate "thank you" pages after user action, clocks $200k MRR
Megify - Github automation tool, clocks $150k ARR
BionicWP - A wordpress platform for freelancers, clocks $30k MRR
IPinfo - an IP data feed API platform, clocks $14mn ARR
The list is endless & I can go on & on. The Saas/Cloud has made it extremely realistic to build a product using various other no-code/low-code platforms & start selling. All you need is a vision, ear & eye close to the ground/business. And a will to go all in.
There are more metrics like Life Time Value of a Customer, Bookings, ARPA etc, but that's pure SaaS specific. We will see how our own companies like Newgen/IDA are doing on this front later in this thread.
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Let's try to understand why technology product companies have historically been non-sequential in QoQ growth. Some call it cyclicality, some called it nature of the business. I will try to clarify a few things in this thread.
To understand this, you have to look at how software as evolved over last decade or two. We have moved on from bulky software that needed on-premise installations to cloud today. Naturally, revenue realization practices have changed too.
Historically, license sell for a large bulky on-prem software used to result in non-sequential growth for technology product companies. Revenue realization used to be jerky. One Q will have huge revenue, while other could be poor.
Use of AI to predict trends isn't really new. However, many still question on how realistic AI can model the trend. Well, it depends on the algo of course. But something came up in my reading & I was intrigued to dig deeper! It is about #SHEIN
Ask any female if they have heard about an app called Shine, and the answer will be an instantaneous yes. The app has taken fashion world by storm & the infatuation is simply explosive. To be honest, I too know Shein, well of course, for obvious reasons 😄
Shein in some numbers:
* Accounts for 28% of the US fast fashion sales
* Revenue has grown 100% each year since last 8 years
* Outpaced H&M, Zara & many more big brands
*Design to production time is just 3 days!
* Adds 1000s of inexpensive SKUs daily!
* Daily app download 650k
A lot of you requested me to post a thread on #LTTS. I did not find time, neither had motivation to do since it is a complex business to cover via something like Twitter thread or even a newsletter. Here I am posting only some abridged views.
I hold Both #LTI & #LTTS from IPO. I am an ex-LT/LTI so have a bit of sneak peak into company as well. Last 2+ years have been terribly bad for LTTS. Not because they did something wrong, but because of external factors.
ER&D space is a bit different than traditional IT. The revenue realization cycles are longer. Contracts are stickier but hard to come by as well. Unlike IT, ER&D is close to sectoral automation at frontline. IT plays role via software, but ER&D is much close to real automation
I am super bullish on this space. We covered #Newgen & its context for growth previously, but the story is only emerging. There is not much coverage on the low-code space yet. People do understand tech/IT, but low-code is new to people in India, but globally it isn't the case.
SAP recently acquired AppGyver which is in "No-Code" segment. However, SAP acquired it as a value addition to its "Low-Code" offerings. So that's a clear sign that SAP is very bullish on "Low-Code" segment. We did discuss briefly about it in initial thread.
Lot of folks asked me how to exit a commodity stock. Here is one small reckoner list: pl note these are not exhaustive reasons I exit a commodity stock.
1. Follow commodity prices on LME spot & future contract values 2. Usually, LME warehouse stock levels give you hints much in advance. If warehouse stock is rising then check two things - spot price & capacity coming on stream
3. Follow historical cycle & correlate with total capacity available. Is the spread of spot and future widening? 4. When commodity cycle peaks, companies run out of capacities. Look for capacity utilization insights given by managements.
After getting good feedback on yesterday's thread on #routemobile I think it is logical to do a bit in-depth technical study. Place #twilio at center, keep #routemobile & #tanla at the periphery & see who is each placed.
This thread is inspired by one of the articles I read on the-ken about #postman API & how they are transforming & expediting software product delivery & consumption, leading to enhanced developer productivity.
We all know that #Twilio offers host of APIs that can be readily used for faster integration by anyone who wants to have communication capabilities. Before we move ahead, let's get a few things cleared out.