Thread by @PaulDMiller2

As Afghanistan collapses, I see a few myths taking root. I'd like to respond to some of them.

"Our presence was unsustainable."

The US presence was tiny, affordable, and low-risk. Few US soldiers were in harm's way. There was no significant antiwar movement at home. The $$ is way lower than the 2010 peak.

"US casualties were low because of the 2020 deal. If we reneged on the deal, the Taliban would start attacking us again."

US KIA have been low since 2014, averaging 1 per month for the last 6-7 years. I mourn for the individual soldiers, but I also have historical perspective

"Afghanistan was a distraction from great power competition (GPC) with Russia and China."

In terms of troops, weapons systems, and resources, what we use in Afg. (CT and special ops) is different from what we need for GPC (tanks, ships, nukes). They're not in competition.

In terms of time, attention, and energy, Afg. isn't a distraction from GPC, it is GPC. We lose and leave, Russia and China gain influence across South/Central Asia. We stay, we keep a platform of access to the whole region.

"That the Afghans are collapsing so fast now means it was always a failure and would never succeed."

You underestimate the morale-crippling effects of the US rapid withdrawal. Till now Afghans could reasonably bank on a future w/ our help. No more. That explains the collapse.

"It wasn't going to succeed no matter how long we stayed."

That is a convenient ex post facto justification that washes our hands of responsibility by acting as if we had no real agency in the situation. We are making a choice to stop trying. Don't pretend that was inevitable.

"We screwed up the past 20 years. Time to go."

Yes we screwed up. I conclude that instead of leaving, we should stay and do better.

"What's your plan then? We tried for 20 years. You have a better idea?"

Yes.

thedispatch.com/p/the-20-years…

providencemag.com/2018/12/the-pr…

newrepublic.com/article/120425…

foreignaffairs.com/articles/afgha…

"We won, bin Laden is dead and AQ is a shell. Whatever else we're doing isn't worth it. Why stay?"

Because they or their copycats will come back. Witness ISIS after the Iraq withdrawal, or the Taliban today. Jihadists are still out there and very much want to kill us.

"They have to take responsibility for their own country."

True. But you can't expect a drowning man to suddenly know how to swim while you reel in the life preserver he'd been clinging to.

"We can't stay there forever. This is the longest war in American history!"

We can't stay there forever, but neither can we put timetables on the future.

And the only thing that will last longer that the war is our need to defend ourselves from terrorists.

"We can strike al-Qaida and ISIS without a ground presence in Afghanistan."

Afghanistan is landlocked. Good luck getting overflight rights from Iran or Pakistan for your drones and airstrikes.

"We had no strategy and we got sucked into nation building which wasn't the original mission."

This is another way of saying that you didn't follow the war very closely and do not understand what is going on.

thedispatch.com/p/what-really-…