Thread by @therealarod1984

8/12 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:

THREAD:

Highlights for 8/12:

1) PCR Pos% rate of growth new low, but still dumb
2) Case rate of growth at 6.5%
3) Hospitalizations - start of a slowdown?
4) Breakdown on 120 reported fatalities

1/n
.

https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1425546182781194242?s=20

8/12 Rate of Growth Analysis:

** For Case & Hosps, Rate of growth is calculated by comparing Week over Week 7DMAs
* PCR Pos% rate of growth down to 3.3%
* Case rate of growth plummeting, down to 6.5%
* Hospitalization rate of growth down to 38.0%

2/n
.

8/12 Positivity Rates:

* PCR Pos% is dumb. Its flat as a pancake but just wont nose over. Rate of growth new low of 3.3%
* Angiten Pos% peaked 8/1. Slight bump again today, but far cry from its peak
* Not concerned because 2 sites looking at Rt both show a nose over

3/n
.

8/12 Cases:

* Another pretty good day
* 11.9K cases reported, up from last Thurs 10.9K
* Case rate of growth down to 6.5% week over week
* That's looking like a peak, but not ready to call it yet
* Last Fri was only 8.8K, but Sat was 16.8K. 8/15 we should know what's up

4/n
.

8/12 Hospitalizations

* Maybe the start of some cooling off? Por favor?
* +299 to 10762. Last Thursday was +445. Small victories LOL
* Rate of Growth dropped 2nd largest amount so far, 1.7%, down to 38%
* Gen beds barely behind 2020. 2021 ICUs still far back vs 2020

5/n
.

8/12 Fatalities Part 1:

* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 numbers through 7/21. 2021 through 6/22. 13 months apart.
* 2020 Summer Wave well outpacing 2021. Same ole.
* Next 3 days will have some weird comps vs 2020, but after that, 2020 is going to take off. More in 7/n.

6/n
.

8/12 Fatalities Part 2:

* To finish thought, Jun 17-23, 2020, a really weird gap in arrivals, then it takes off. That's the comp for the next 3 days
* 120 reported today +44 over last Thursday
* 87.5% of them from the past 2 weeks. Mid-July divergence with Hosps is big

7/n
.

8/12 Primer on Fatalities:

8/n
.

https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1417550891842932737?s=20

8/12 Conclusion:

* Another mixed bag, but feels better than yesterday
* I hate the PCR test
* Cases forming a peak for now. Would make sense to due to Rt & Antigen Pos%
* 8/15 Case peak is still on?
* Hospitalizations fingers crossed next 2-3 days for fast deceleration

9/end

8/12 Conclusion:

* Another mixed bag, but feels better than yesterday
* I hate the PCR test
* Cases forming a peak for now. Would make sense to due to Rt & Antigen Pos%
* 8/15 Case peak is still on?
* Hospitalizations fingers crossed next 2-3 days for fast deceleration

9/end