Thread by @AndrewPRLevi

.@TomTugendhat makes powerful points on the consequences of the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

For people in Afghanistan itself, of course.

And for the world, if the power & reliability of the US & its allies is thrown into doubt.

It mustn’t be. So what’s the plan?

A 🧵/1.

https://twitter.com/tomtugendhat/status/1425919651469565955

.@TomTugendhat’s concerns are easy to understand & widely shared

But, President Biden & his team have the unenviable, existentially vital task (for the US, all its allies & the world at large) of leading a global order confronted by unprecedented challenges: /2.

▪️world environmental & health crisis;

▪️political, economic & security destabilisation, arising from systemic geopolitical rivalry with Xi’s CCP-led China, & serious disruptive potential from Putin’s KGB-captured Russia; /3.

▪️the US itself, the only power capable of the required leadership, near politically shattered by a disastrous presidency post 2016 & an attempted coup (yes, folks) following Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential win. /4.

Place yourself in the shoes of the US President, Secretary of State & the rest of the team. /5.

Central - other than the USA itself & Canada - are the those which make up the great bulk of concerted economic & military US-allied power in western Eurasia (the members of the EU) & east Asia/ Pacific (Japan & a few others, including Australia). India’s role is also key. /6.

This isn’t to forget Africa & the rest of the Americas. Forgive the short-hand. /7.

(The UK looks marginal. Potentially even disruptive & damaging. But also capable, if it finally realises it has to toe the line or face serious consequences, of making a useful contribution. Not least as a NATO member). /8.

So, President Biden has to concentrate US power where it is essential & in a way which delivers maximum effect. /9.

The US & its allies need to control western & eastern Eurasia. To achieve that, the President needs a US capable of leading the effort. Absent either, it’s game over. For any kind of order. Or any chance of effectively confronting the crises outlined above. /10.

Where does that leave Afghanistan? And trust in the US?

President Biden judges that US political support for continued involvement in Afghanistan is unsustainable. (His predecessor took the same view). /11.

The calculation’s that, while trust in America will surely be damaged by the withdrawal, the negative effects are outweighed by the need to rebuild internal US political support for essential global leadership & to concentrate US resources & effort in the most vital areas./12.

Sitting in London, or Berlin, or even in a newspaper or think tank office in Washington DC for that matter, it’s easy to express shock & dismay. And entirely understandable. /13.

Sitting in the White House, the buck stops right on the desk in front of you. In a way which simply isn’t true anywhere else in the world. And it can look very different indeed. /14.

Which is no comfort to people in Afghanistan, facing consequences none of us, if we haven’t experienced something similar, can adequately comprehend. /15. End