.@TomTugendhat’s concerns are easy to understand & widely shared
But, President Biden & his team have the unenviable, existentially vital task (for the US, all its allies & the world at large) of leading a global order confronted by unprecedented challenges: /2.
▪️world environmental & health crisis;
▪️political, economic & security destabilisation, arising from systemic geopolitical rivalry with Xi’s CCP-led China, & serious disruptive potential from Putin’s KGB-captured Russia; /3.
▪️the US itself, the only power capable of the required leadership, near politically shattered by a disastrous presidency post 2016 & an attempted coup (yes, folks) following Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential win. /4.
Place yourself in the shoes of the US President, Secretary of State & the rest of the team. /5.
Central - other than the USA itself & Canada - are the those which make up the great bulk of concerted economic & military US-allied power in western Eurasia (the members of the EU) & east Asia/ Pacific (Japan & a few others, including Australia). India’s role is also key. /6.
This isn’t to forget Africa & the rest of the Americas. Forgive the short-hand. /7.
(The UK looks marginal. Potentially even disruptive & damaging. But also capable, if it finally realises it has to toe the line or face serious consequences, of making a useful contribution. Not least as a NATO member). /8.
So, President Biden has to concentrate US power where it is essential & in a way which delivers maximum effect. /9.
The US & its allies need to control western & eastern Eurasia. To achieve that, the President needs a US capable of leading the effort. Absent either, it’s game over. For any kind of order. Or any chance of effectively confronting the crises outlined above. /10.
Where does that leave Afghanistan? And trust in the US?
President Biden judges that US political support for continued involvement in Afghanistan is unsustainable. (His predecessor took the same view). /11.
The calculation’s that, while trust in America will surely be damaged by the withdrawal, the negative effects are outweighed by the need to rebuild internal US political support for essential global leadership & to concentrate US resources & effort in the most vital areas./12.
Sitting in London, or Berlin, or even in a newspaper or think tank office in Washington DC for that matter, it’s easy to express shock & dismay. And entirely understandable. /13.
Sitting in the White House, the buck stops right on the desk in front of you. In a way which simply isn’t true anywhere else in the world. And it can look very different indeed. /14.
Which is no comfort to people in Afghanistan, facing consequences none of us, if we haven’t experienced something similar, can adequately comprehend. /15. End
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Sure, there’s more to it. But fundamentally it’s that simple. And that horrifying.
Source: Johns Hopkins University, via @OurWorldInData. To 10 August 2021.
Here’s a version of the chart to include Brazil, which is appalling ….
Some questions on India raised in replies. Official death rates (per million) very low. But not included here because it’s reported the true figures may be 10x (more like Sweden or UK).
@SteveBakerHW is a well-known British Twitter parody account. ‘MP’ should not be misinterpreted to mean he’s a real member of the UK legislature. (‘FRSA’’? … well, don’t worry about that. Not important).
Oh … wait. What?
Good grief.
P.S. Dear non-UK world, turns out @SteveBakerHW is not only a genuine member of the governing party in the UK parliament, but he’s an ardent supporter of the ‘political fiasco’ (his words) called ‘Brexit’. He also thinks carbon ‘net zero’ is bad, because it’ll make us ‘colder’.
P.P.S. Those not closely following UK politics may not know how far @SteveBakerHW has come on Brexit.
From falsely accusing officials of faking evidence it’d be a fiasco, to crying from the (Twitter) rooftops that it is one.
This tweet supposedly originates from @AllegraCOP26, a top comms pro working for @BorisJohnson, the Prime Minister of the UK, leading his messaging to the world on the most important crisis facing humanity.
Pretending individuals can make any real difference in a system driving them toward climate catastrophe is dishonest & dangerous.
The massive systems change required needs clarity, competence & courage. Not patronising claptrap.
17 years ago the Cabinet agreed & published an international energy & climate strategy for the UK. The first ever.
It wasn’t perfect. But it was clear, & right, about the central challenges, the massive change needed to address them & (at least some) of how to achieve that.
Along with approaching 6 million others, a Holocaust survivor’s citizenship rights in the UK were revoked on 1 January 2021, to be replaced with an inferior status.
And for no other reason than she (& they) belong to a disfavoured group (EU citizens).
A Holocaust survivor. /2.
She, along with countless others, faces the prospect that she may be denied even that lesser status. /3.