Everyone in Hawaii every two years since 1998:
Women in Hawaii have the highest life expectancy of any state/gender group in America so she's probably not near done.
(If Tulsi Gabbard, apparently a particularly athletic and healthy young woman in Hawaii, hadn't been...whatever she is, she might have beaten all the Congressional longevity records.)
Like if she had just hung out in her safe seat, eating whatever weird health food she gets suspiciously large donations from, why not.
Well she IS and always has been a weird outsider, and that's probably why she has whatever audience she has. Good with the bad.
(On paper Gabbard's resume might seem like a conventional "good political CV", various offices and military service etc, but the Gabbards are more like a weird independent political machine than anything else.)
Like that's why her campaign manager was her sister at one point and her chief of staff is someone else from the family health food store/son of a former third-party fringe candidate from the 70s. Or, indeed, why those categories could even potentially overlap.
The Gabbards had their own donor base that gave to Mike when he was a Republican and to Tulsi when she was a Democrat, a fairly unique distinction among politicians that I can think of, maybe outside of like, Boro Park.
(I thought her campaign manager was her sister at some point but now I can't find that. Her mother was her campaign treasurer at one point, though, and her mother-in-law was her office manager.)
So anyway, not unlike with Trump, coming up with weak ties to the national party network and having your own people and source of funds and media can lead to erratic behavior but also the potential for unusual combinations of positions that might have some appeal.
Having followed Gabbard on and off since her 2012 primary (christ I'm getting old), I'm not surprised she was an unconventional Member of Congress, I would have been more surprised if she wasn't.
I don't know if I'm aware of any another major politician than Gabbard whose early donors were so heavily just donors to her and her family and affiliates (often overlapping), not to any other candidates. There's probably some way to check that quantitatively I suppose.
I mean outside of self-funders or people from family money (although maybe Gabbard was just sort of a distributed version of that).

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More from @xenocryptsite

14 Aug
My solution to this would be stop having "active shooter training", unless there's some actual reason to.
Everyone's always like "it's so dystopian that we need to have school shooting drills", but do we need to have them? Do they help? Is there any evidence they help? (They help the companies hired to perform them, I'm sure.)
Some light Googling suggests they're currently being done in like 95% of schools, and also, there don't seem to be any good studies on their costs or benefits. Not a great combo, IMO.
Read 11 tweets
14 Aug
Would there be any downside to a state running redistricting as an open contest judged on a predetermined set of metrics?
Like, say, average deviation between median district margin and statewide margin, and if they're pretty close by that, a compactness measure because people are annoying, VRA compliance, etc.
(Someone said that redistricting is a political problem, which I agree, but I think the relevant political metrics can be defined and included.)
Read 4 tweets
13 Aug
Said the other day that, while Connecticut Presidential results and gubernatorial results are different, you can see same trends in both, but I wanted to check more carefully. And yeah, pretty much. (H/t @DrewSav for the town-level election results.)
Democratic margins in the richest towns did improve (way) more for President than for Governor, but they did improve for both. Not sure what's up with Connecticut's cities. (A sentence you will often find yourself saying in CT politics, or in CT true crime.)
Darien and New Canaan are such funny little outliers but at the end of the day these are you know, very correlated elections.
Read 6 tweets
13 Aug
I've not seen this movie or read the play but reminded me of odd way Amanda Plummer was very specifically typecast as "seemingly incoherent woman with secret insights", in her Tony-winning "Agnes Of God", her Emmy-winning SVU role ("Weak"), and her biggest hit ("Catching Fire").
Of course the lead in "Catching Fire" probably got the job because they were like, "well, Jennifer Lawrence already skinned a squirrel onscreen in that Oscar movie, let's just get her to do it again". So Hollywood does this.
Or--I'm sure I've Tweeted about this before, and it's not unique to me, Brian Cox's FOUR different "guy behind the memory-erasing super-soldier program" roles.
Read 9 tweets
13 Aug
"Turnout or persuasion" is not an either/or, precisely because persuasion (or at least vote-switching) exists, and therefore voters are not constant units. So it makes decomposing electoral changes very very tricky.
And it might matter a lot what your baseline/counterfactual is. Is it "the exact same voters show up as Election X", is it "all the voters we hoped show up (and not the ones the other side was hoping for)", is it "literal 100% turnout".
If a county's raw vote drops by exactly 1000, and the Democratic margin drops by exactly 1000, it's easy to say "oh, 1000 Democrats didn't show up". But you don't actually know that.
Read 4 tweets
13 Aug
(In fact it kept coming up for a lot of places.)
xenocrypt.github.io/IndyPopMap.html
So that much seems to have been going on for a while, in the broad strokes at least. Indeed I wonder how correlated various 2000-2010 vs. 2010-2020 changes are, or more precisely, which changes are or aren't correlated.
Read 6 tweets

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