1/ Have appreciation, emapthy and undersattnding for our VETERANS right now.
The ‘decision’ to “withdraw” from Afghanistan is causing heartwrenching pain suffering, frustration, anger—so many sacrificed SO MUCH (and many sacrificed ALL from limbs to life)…
2/ The US / Pentagon could never admit this overtly
failed state in Afghanistan under Taliban will foment violent extremists as it has
and yet now China = greater U.S. priority
History shows nation fighting two fronts often flails
Crazy 💭Our enemy’s enemy may be our “friend”
3/ CCP may recognize Taliban if Kabul fails
But will Taliban? They need
-Opium trade to China
-there are 1M muslims in concentration camps on Afghanistan border
What if US “decision” was not haphazard but calculated
“Enough—make this China’s problem on the Western front”
4/ I’d like to believe that US fight in Afghanistan was NOT for naught
It kept stabilized an unstable region that was always a powder keg
And at a time when China is on OFFENSE
this is a strategic move to threaten their Central Asia interests
and distract them on western front
5/ IF intentional
its a MUCH better strategy (Clausewitz x Sun Tzu)
at time when China facing global alliances focused on Taiwan in the EAST
and improbably may have to deploy troops to WEST
support for Taliban to liberate oppressed Uighurs
would be improbale insane plot twist
6/ highlights of Biden speech today on Afghanistan.
8/ UPDATE:
ISIS-K challenging Taliban, ‘declares war on China’
9/ UPDATE 2:
“…Now, as ISIS entrenches itself in Afghanistan, the group appears to be exploiting existing divisions to challenge neighboring countries, with China high on the list.” newsweek.com/isis-put-china…
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1/ We are ABSOLUTELY insanely lucky to be able to witness this conversation
MASTERCLASS in military + geopolitical strategy + Arab/Israeli conflict
@havivrettiggur's brilliance+ Dan Schueftan's realpolitik rationality
watch whole thing or pick any segment🤯
2/Key excerpts (summarized).
Hard to disagree with anything.
The Nature of the Enemy + "Barbarism"
The Definition of Barbarism: Barbarism is not just violence; it is a societal decision to value the death of the enemy over the lives of one's own children. When Hamas places weapons in tunnels but forces civilians to stay above ground during war, they are declaring that they do not care for their own survival, only the destruction of Jews.
The "Love of Death" is Literal: We must stop projecting Western rationalism onto enemies who openly declare, "You Jews will lose because you love life; we will win because we love death." This is not a slogan; it is a strategic doctrine that renders traditional deterrence mechanisms (like threat of death) ineffective.
The Danger of "Happy Wife, Happy Life" Geopolitics: The Western belief that economic prosperity ("a better life") leads to moderation is a fatal fallacy. The Second Intifada was launched when Palestinians had their best economic situation in history. You cannot buy off an ideology that considers killing Jews a higher calling than feeding children.
Culture is Deterministic: You cannot "de-radicalize" a society that does not want to change. Just as Libya’s failure is cultural rather than resource-based, Gaza’s failure is rooted in a culture where the only role models are those who kill Jews. The West’s refusal to discuss culture—viewing it as "progressive" to ignore it—blinds them to reality.
3/ (Summary continued) Strategic Realpolitik
Solutions are for Crossword Puzzles: In the Middle East, serious problems do not have solutions. The two-state solution is a fantasy for the "simpleminded." The only realistic strategy is combining "damage control" with the use of opportunity. If you are looking for a solution, you are looking for something that does not exist.
"Violent Maintenance" is the Only Peace: There will never be "peace" in the Western sense. There is only the constant destruction of the enemy's capacity to wage war. Israel must adopt a policy of "violent maintenance"—preemptively destroying capabilities (like factories and tunnels) before they can be used, regardless of the immediate diplomatic cost.
The "New York Times" Test: When fighting "barbarians," proportional response is a mistake. The response must be so overwhelming that it shatters the enemy's will. A good rule of thumb for Israel: "If the New York Times is not outraged, it's the wrong response.".
Western Aid Funds the Conflict: The West is funding its own enemies. Palestinians are the only refugees in history paid billions for generations to remain refugees. This funding teaches them that "behaving like barbarians" is a profitable business model that attracts French, British, and American support.
CZI led by Mark Zuckerberg + Priscilla Chan who've admirably committed tens of billions (and the entirety of their wealth to CZI) has acquired Lux family co Evolutionary Scale––just 2yrs after it's founding at a great multiple...
2/ We first teamed w/ @alexrives cofounder of EvolutionaryScale ~10yrs ago
cofounding Lux family Kallyope (cutting-edge bioetch focused on gut-brain axis)
Alex had the prescience to see the future of bio was computer science + AI. So he got his PhD at NYU and then...
@alexrives 3/...then Alex went to Meta, built an absolute cutting-edge AI bio group and published work that competed with Alphafold/Deepmind.
I tried to convince him to spinout in late winter of 2022––but Meta was funding him too well...
-Over 50% of small VCs will involuntarily exit as ~5 VCs are planning to voluntarily exit (IPO)
-Lux team has invested over half a billion dollars across 82 companies (new + existing) in the past few months…
2/
-Zuck’s “ Poachapalooza 2025”
-L&A (License + Acquihire) is the new M&A
-the AI capex surge (5% of GDP) ~ fiber-optic + router binge of 2000 tech boom (5.2%) and short step below sheet-rock bonanza of 2005 housing bubble (6.7%).
-Open source vs Closed…
3/great irony in frenzy for ARTIFICIAL intelligence––what’s acquired isnt hardware but HUMAN intelligence
-frontier of agentic Al not defined by model size-but what we can verify
-99% reliable agent degrades to 60.5% after 50 sequential decision tasks––each error cascading like cracks in glass