What we're seeing in Afghanistan is a great demonstration of how to switch realms of warfare.
From guerrilla warfare fought in the moral realm (and given the rapid collapse of the ANA, a complete success) to maneuver warfare fought in the psychological realm (more success).
From guerrilla warfare fought in the moral realm (and given the rapid collapse of the ANA, a complete success) to maneuver warfare fought in the psychological realm (more success).
Note: Why is maneuver warfare in the psychological realm?
Maneuver warfare uses rapid movements that maximize ambiguity, deception, and novelty in order to disorient, disrupt, and overload an opponent's decision-making.
Maneuver warfare uses rapid movements that maximize ambiguity, deception, and novelty in order to disorient, disrupt, and overload an opponent's decision-making.
The US hasn't caught up yet.
They are still assuming they have time to make an orderly withdrawal and that the length of time they have is negotiable.
They can't, and it isn't.
NATO forces are actually at risk of being cut off and stranded in Kabul.
They are still assuming they have time to make an orderly withdrawal and that the length of time they have is negotiable.
They can't, and it isn't.
NATO forces are actually at risk of being cut off and stranded in Kabul.
This is what we call "operating inside your opponent's OODA loop" (see: John Boyd's work for more).
They are making decisions and executing them faster than the US is, and with each decision-making cycle, they are getting further ahead.
They are making decisions and executing them faster than the US is, and with each decision-making cycle, they are getting further ahead.
One last transition possible in this conflict: attrition warfare (physical realm).
Infiltrate and surround Kabul
Cut it off (deny the use of the airport)
Wear down the defenders
Negotiate a surrender
I hope this doesn't happen, but we boxed ourselves into this.
Infiltrate and surround Kabul
Cut it off (deny the use of the airport)
Wear down the defenders
Negotiate a surrender
I hope this doesn't happen, but we boxed ourselves into this.
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