8/14 Texas C19 Pos%, Case, Hosp & Fatality Update:
THREAD:
Highlights for 8/14:
1) PCR Pos% rate of growth new low
2) 9K cases dumped by Bexar. County by County analysis
3) Hospitalizations finally a good day
4) Breakdown 117 reported fatalities
1/n
.
THREAD:
Highlights for 8/14:
1) PCR Pos% rate of growth new low
2) 9K cases dumped by Bexar. County by County analysis
3) Hospitalizations finally a good day
4) Breakdown 117 reported fatalities
1/n
.
https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1426225993904177153?s=20
8/14 Rate of Growth Analysis:
** For Case & Hosps, Rate of growth is calculated by comparing Week over Week 7DMAs
* PCR Pos% rate of growth down to 1.9%. Previous 2 days also revised downward
* Case rate down to 14.8%
* Hospitalization rate down to 2.1% to 34.1%
2/n
.
** For Case & Hosps, Rate of growth is calculated by comparing Week over Week 7DMAs
* PCR Pos% rate of growth down to 1.9%. Previous 2 days also revised downward
* Case rate down to 14.8%
* Hospitalization rate down to 2.1% to 34.1%
2/n
.
8/14 Positivity Rates:
* PCR Pos% Rate of growth new low of 1.9%. Currently 18.88%
* Angiten Pos% peaked 8/1. Revisions for the past week were all downward, but there is a shallow rise occurring.
* Harvard/Stanford/Georgetown sites show Rt continuing its decline.
3/n
.
* PCR Pos% Rate of growth new low of 1.9%. Currently 18.88%
* Angiten Pos% peaked 8/1. Revisions for the past week were all downward, but there is a shallow rise occurring.
* Harvard/Stanford/Georgetown sites show Rt continuing its decline.
3/n
.
8/14 Cases:
* Bexar County dumped 9K cases today
* 21.9K cases, up from last Sat 16.9K. New high.
* Summed County totals for past 7 days, vs totals for previous week. 56% of the Top 42 Counties down WoW. Harris, Dallas, Travis, Collin down. Bexar, Tarrant up slightly.
4/n
.
* Bexar County dumped 9K cases today
* 21.9K cases, up from last Sat 16.9K. New high.
* Summed County totals for past 7 days, vs totals for previous week. 56% of the Top 42 Counties down WoW. Harris, Dallas, Travis, Collin down. Bexar, Tarrant up slightly.
4/n
.
8/14 Hospitalizations
* Finally some slowing down
* +120 to 11381. Last Saturday was +470
* ICU +15. Last Sat was +126
* Rate of Growth largest drop so far of 2.1% to 34.1%
* Gen beds now ahead of 2020. 2021 ICUs behind 2020
* See if tomorrow is near zero increase...
5/n
.
* Finally some slowing down
* +120 to 11381. Last Saturday was +470
* ICU +15. Last Sat was +126
* Rate of Growth largest drop so far of 2.1% to 34.1%
* Gen beds now ahead of 2020. 2021 ICUs behind 2020
* See if tomorrow is near zero increase...
5/n
.
8/14 Fatalities Part 1:
* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 numbers through 7/23. 2021 through 6/24. 13 months apart.
* 2020 Summer Wave well outpacing 2021.
* 2nd of 3 days vs weird 2020 comps.
* In 2 days, 2020 fatalities take off big, and start leaving 2021 in the dust.
6/n
.
* Primer in 8/n
* 2021 numbers through 7/23. 2021 through 6/24. 13 months apart.
* 2020 Summer Wave well outpacing 2021.
* 2nd of 3 days vs weird 2020 comps.
* In 2 days, 2020 fatalities take off big, and start leaving 2021 in the dust.
6/n
.
8/14 Fatalities Part 2:
* 117 reported today, +52 over last Sat
* 83% from last 2 weeks. I keep highlighting this cuz it means mid/late July isn't filling in at all & diversion from the hospitalization line is going to be large
* LOL -Apr & Jun 2020 Deaths reported today
7/n
.
* 117 reported today, +52 over last Sat
* 83% from last 2 weeks. I keep highlighting this cuz it means mid/late July isn't filling in at all & diversion from the hospitalization line is going to be large
* LOL -Apr & Jun 2020 Deaths reported today
7/n
.
8/14 Primer on Fatalities:
Explains how fatalities are reported to the state and how they arrive over time. Explains the divergence between fatalities and hospitalizations. And why 6/n is comparisons only as recent as 21 days ago.
8/n
.
Explains how fatalities are reported to the state and how they arrive over time. Explains the divergence between fatalities and hospitalizations. And why 6/n is comparisons only as recent as 21 days ago.
8/n
.
https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1417550891842932737?s=20
8/13 Conclusion:
* With so many counties showing decline week over week, very possible we see Case peak in next couple days
* Good day for hospitalizations. Weekend usually is high discharges, be looking for tomorrow's #s being flat vs today. That would be a great sign
10/n
* With so many counties showing decline week over week, very possible we see Case peak in next couple days
* Good day for hospitalizations. Weekend usually is high discharges, be looking for tomorrow's #s being flat vs today. That would be a great sign
10/n
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
