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Shashank Joshi Profile picture
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14 Aug, 6 tweets, 3 min read
Just yesterday UK said it was moving embassy to safer place in Kabul. Now seems as if @laurie_bristow & others being evacuated. "Senior gov't sources said UK would evacuate its ambassador and staff, and would no longer maintain an embassy outpost there" thetimes.co.uk/article/briton…
Yeah, Turkey is not going to be running Kabul airport, is it. "The rapidity of the Taliban advance appeared to spook Whitehall officials ... a senior source warning: “The fear is the airport will not hold for more than a few days.”...' thetimes.co.uk/article/briton…
UK official: "The SAS trained the Afghan special forces and MI6 has hundreds of allies across the local intelligence agencies. They want these people brought out and offering them sanctuary could be the key ensuring the evacuation runs smoothly..." thetimes.co.uk/article/briton…
Home Office gonna Home Office. "the Home Office is reluctant to give many of these people asylum because of the message it will send to other refugees. The collapse of Afghanistan is expected to lead to a wave of hundreds of thousands" thetimes.co.uk/article/briton…
Worries that Kabul airport will be shelled soon. "military planners fear Taliban advances could bring the airport within artillery range...@16AirAssltBde is taking portable radar to Kabul that can detect the source of artillery fire." thetimes.co.uk/article/briton…
You have to chuckle at this. "The defence review planned to equip us to do everything to disrupt terrorists using cyber and kinetic capabilities" thetimes.co.uk/article/briton…

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More from @shashj

Shashank Joshi Profile picture
15 Aug
Taliban paved way for surrenders "early last year". Deals "often described...as cease-fires, but Taliban leaders were in fact offering money in exchange for government forces to hand over their weapons, according to an Afghan officer and a U.S. official." washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/…
"Over the next year and a half, the meetings advanced to the district level and then rapidly on to provincial capitals, culminating in a breathtaking series of negotiated surrenders by government forces" washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/…
'...“Some just wanted the money,” an Afghan special forces officer said ...But others saw the US commitment to a full withdrawal as an “assurance” that the militants would return to power in Afghanistan and wanted to secure their place on the winning side' washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/…
Read 5 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
15 Aug
Important point from @mvbijlert. US withdrawal a pivotal moment, but not only factor: Taliban advance "an acceleration of the existing state of affairs in large parts of the country...the country did not go from relative stability to utter chaos overnight" afghan-analysts.org/en/reports/war…
The Taliban's own 77 Brigade. "The Taleban appear to have media teams accompanying their fighters as they take control of the cities or, at the very least, an intentional media engagement strategy." afghan-analysts.org/en/reports/war…
"Ironically, they [the US] are now hastily flying in 3000 soldiers to support an evacuation, which may, in turn, disrupt commercial flights and complicate the possibility for others to leave." afghan-analysts.org/en/reports/war…
Read 7 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
13 Aug
Clear emergence of two perspectives on Af'stan: 1) US couldve stayed at low cost, maintaining stalemate. 2) Taliban were making gains even w/ intensifying US airpower; Afghan troops/state were showing no sign of improvement. Sympathetic to (1) but ultimately more persuaded by (2)
US presence in Af'stan post-2018/19 was not especially high cost. And it enabled a substantial NATO training mission. But equally the pre-Doha-deal, pre-withdrawal status quo was not a steady state. The choice was probably, eventually, going to be between escalation & withdrawal.
Whatever rights/wrongs of withdrawal, am also sceptical it undermines US credibility in Asia. Yes, a humiliation. But everyone knows US left not because it lacked capacity to stay, but domestic politics shifted, surges didn't break deadlock & AFG became peripheral to US interests
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
4 Aug
"Iranians stormed an asphalt tanker and tried to take it to their home country but the crew sabotaged the engines of the vessel so it could not move, according to UK government sources."
'...“Then US and Omani warships turned up and the Iranians got into some boats and went off.” The source said the crew were safe and no one was injured' thetimes.co.uk/article/iran-m…
.@ArgusMedia: "in the recording, a crew member ... said that there were "5-6 Iranians" on board and that the ship was drifting. Asked what the Iranians wanted, the crew member said he did not understand and suggested the coastguards talk directly to them.' argusmedia.com/en/news/224091…
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
23 Jun
Update: UK now denies that warning shots were fired at HMS Defender or bombs dropped in her path; says she was "conducting innocent passage through Ukrainian territorial waters", and that Russia was conducting a previously-announced gunnery exercise.
Interesting. Though of course the UK's claim is that it was in Ukrainian territorial waters, without specifying whether that means Crimean territorial waters (and thus Russian-claimed) or somewhere else.
On innocent passage, Russia prior position relevant here. "Russia has adopted several laws which require prior notification & authorization that some states argue are contrary to...regime of innocent passage & freedom of navigation" munin.uit.no/bitstream/hand…
Read 6 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
23 Jun
A pretty serious escalation between the UK and Russia. (It suggests, also, that the UK was serious when it talked about a more assertive, forward posture in the Integrated Operating Concept and recent defence command paper.
"Competing involves a campaign posture that includes continuous operating on our terms and in places of our choosing. It will also require actions to be communicated in ways that may test the traditional limits of statecraft." gov.uk/government/pub…
"As noted by the Russian military, at 11:52 the British ship crossed the Russian border & entered the territorial sea at Cape Fiolent for 3km. He was warned about the use of weapons in the event of a border violation, but the destroyer crew did not react" ria.ru/20210623/korab…
Read 8 tweets

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