Thread by @ChrisMurphyCT

So this headline is like many others - it leaves readers with the impression that the Pentagon has elevated the terrorist threat coming from Afghanistan.

1/ But that's not what's happened. And it's important to know why.
politico.com/news/2021/08/1…

2/ Twenty years of American presence in Afghanistan smashed Al Qaeda in Afghanistan to pieces. It's likely only 100-200 members remain, and they do not possess the ability to plan and execute an attack against the United States.

3/ And remember, for years the Taliban has been in control of over half of Afghanistan. So if the Taliban wanted to give Al Qaeda a safe haven, Al Qaeda would have had plenty of room to operate. The Taliban made a strategic decision to keep Al Qaeda at bay.

4/ Then the Taliban signed an agreement with the Trump Administration agreeing to refuse safe harbor to Al Qaeda if the Taliban came back into power. That's a big part of the reason the Trump Admin agreed to draw down to 2,500.

5/ Of course there are lots of reasons to believe the Taliban will ignore that agreement. There are elements of the Taliban that are still allied with Al Qaeda.

But there are also good reasons why the Taliban would decide it isn't worth the trouble to let Al Qaeda reconstitute.

6/ So now the U.S. must put in place monitoring and counter-terrorism capabilities to track and target Al Qaeda activity in the region.

FWIW Al Qaeda affiliates in Yemen and Africa are much stronger than Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and we keep them at bay without ground troops.

7/ This is all to say that there is no way to know right now whether the terrorist threat from Afghanistan will grow or not. It COULD, but no one knows if it WILL. And anyone today who says they know for certain isn't telling the truth.