The second visual shows how observed warming is driven by emissions from human activities.
It shows that greenhouse gases alone would already have warmed the planet by 1.5°C, but air pollution is currently cooling it. Both need to be tackled.
(4/n)
Climate change is already affecting us our activities contribute to many observed changes in weather and climate extremes.
Each red hexagon represents a world region in which observed hot extremes have increased, with the number of dots representing our confidence.
(6/n)
This visual was actually too large to fully fit in a single tweet. Here is the same visual for heavy precipitation and droughts.
The fourth visual shows scenarios that help @IPCC_CH describe the implications of our emission reduction choices.
They cover a full range from very high emissions that require a roll-back of climate policies to very low emissions that require deep cuts in the next decade. (9/n)
The final visual for today shows that every increment of warming matters for climate impacts.
That is true for temperatures. (10/n)
As well as for precipitation and soil moisture - important for the impact heatwaves have on society and crops.
(11/n)
Enough for today. Stay tuned for the second part of visual over the next days. (end)
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Breaking news on #CO2 📢🔥🌍
The new @gcarbonproject emissions numbers are out with an analysis by @CarbonBrief
What do the numbers tell us?
Spoiler alert: they are quite the party pooper for prospects of global peaking 🥳💩😢 (1)
Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and the production of cement increased yet another 1.1% since 2022, reaching their highest level yet. 36.8 billion tons of CO2 in 2023!
Total CO2 emissions that include land use increased by ca. 0.5%, a tie with the 2019 record (2)
Any positive news here?
Land-use CO2 emissions have been declining slightly, but not at a pace that would be consistent with pathways meeting the Paris Agreement 1.5C ambition.
And their estimates are still accompanied by large scientific uncertainty. (3)
The latest @IPCC_CH mitigation report shows different ways in which warming can be kept to (close to) 1.5°C.
See the light-blue range in the figure below which shows global GHG emissions. (2)
Emissions also decline for carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) individually, but to different levels. Only CO2 reaches net zero and goes net negative. (3)
Hot off the press - new climate research 🚨🌍🔥
Will warming stop once we reach net zero CO2 emissions?
Open-access publication @FrontiersIn assessing what we know and don't know about whether warming will stop once net zero CO2 emissions are reached. /1 frontiersin.org/journals/scien…
With #NetZero targets established as key components of international and national climate policy, it becomes ever more pertinent to closely understand what reaching net-zero emissions will deliver and what it doesn't. /2
That's why we, with an international team of scientists, take a deep look at the 'zero emissions commitment' or ZEC. In other words, how much warming (or cooling) can be expected once global emissions are brought down to zero.
For various reasons, we focus our effort on CO2. /3
The Advisory Board recommends the EU to take up a 2040 emissions reduction target of 90–95% compared to 1990 to keep the EU’s GHG budget to within 11 to 14 Gt CO2e between 2030 and 2050. #2040ClimateTarget#GreenhouseGasEmissionsBudget
Where do these numbers come from?
2/n
To arrive at this #2040ClimateTarget advice, the @esabcc_eu implemented its earlier recommendation to the @EU_Commission to follow an approach that is systematic, transparent and guided by EU values, when preparing its EU 2040 climate target proposal. 4/n
In 2021, the European Climate Law created the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change @esabcc_eu and tasked it to inform the EU’s #2040ClimateTarget and 2030-2050 greenhouse gas (GHG) budget.
Today, @esabcc_eu published its advice.
Here’s the short version 🧵1/n
The Advisory Board recommends the @EU_Commission to take up:
a 2040 emissions reduction target of 90–95% compared to 1990
to keep the EU’s GHG budget to within 11 to 14 Gt CO2e between 2030 and 2050.
2/n
This advice is based on an assessment of what would be both a fair and a feasible emissions reduction contribution of the EU to the global challenge of keeping warming to 1.5°C. 3/n
Countries’ new and updated pledges (NDCs) submitted since COP26 reduce projected global GHG emissions in 2030 by only 0.5 gigatons of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) compared with projections based on pledges at the time of COP26.
Some pledges result in even higher emissions /2
Countries are off track to achieve even the globally highly insufficient NDCs. Global GHG emissions in 2030 based on current policies are estimated at 58 GtCO2e. The implementation gap in 2030 between policies and NDCs is about 3 to 6 GtCO2e. /3