1/ There’s a lot of disinformation floating around on what exactly was agreed in Doha. I’ve included a link to the full text, below. The more you read this, the more you realize how amazingly out of touch our current commentary has become.

state.gov/wp-content/upl…
2/ This document specifically spells out a mutual understanding that the Taliban will negotiate a settlement with the Afghan government, just as they did. Less, clear, but 100% tacitly implied throughout, is that the Taliban will be the new rulers.
3/ In other words, we knew those “settlements” were surrender agreements. All the Taliban had to do was show this document to each Afghan provincial leader and they could see we were now backing the Taliban.
4/ We even spell out our intent to then provide the Taliban, as Afghan’s new ruling party, development aid, UN recognition, and immunity from any future US military incursion or even threat.
5/ This wasn’t an intelligence failure. We agreed with them in advance on what they would do. This is a failure to properly advise and inform the incoming administration of a critical foreign policy agreement. @CNN @MSNBC @maddow @nytimes @chrislhayes @SethAbramson @JRubinBlogger

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More from @jcawley01

13 Jul 20
@PaulGambles2 @MartinSoong @cnbcSri 1/ I agree with the points in your thread and share the expressed intuitions. In this reply I want to set aside the fed/asset questions and just focus on the real economy.

Events like this tend to accelerate trends that already existed, so let’s highlight 3 of those:
@PaulGambles2 @MartinSoong @cnbcSri 2/ a) Manufacturing employment both in absolute # as well as % of total workforce have been declining for decades. This trend may bounce a bit, but will accelerate. Even when sector output eventually goes up, jobs will decline.
@PaulGambles2 @MartinSoong @cnbcSri 3/ a) cont. Any reshoring that may happen won’t be big enough to change that. In fact, we should expect manufacturers to use the free capital available to invest in further automation to eliminate jobs made unreliable by virus “flare-ups” effecting employees.
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