0nly Fans… most everyone being loud about this are getting the story wrong, a thread:
A lot of people are hung up about the head fakes and 0F scares of the preceding months and discounting this current reporting. Where there’s smoke there’s a 🔥.
Underneath the surface there
Is an eternal struggle between payment processors and legacy banking on one side, and sexy content and SWers on the other.
Anyone who thinks any potential shift in policy is solely up to only fans volition is dumb or selling you something. No beef with the fanhouse folks but
Their take is in part an attempt at differentiation + to build goodwill since if the initial reporting is true, they just lost a huge point of differentiation.
0F did 1.2 BILLION in free cash flow (in short money net of costs and expenses) the belief they are “pivoting” to
“ capture a bigger market” or raise money from investors/VC/IPO is ludicrous. They were growing at 100% per year and by all reports that number was accelerating. 2b this year, 3-4b the year after etc. they don’t NEED investors, nor could they court them by killing their
golden goose. If this was about greed they would bank that free cash flow or try to sell it as it exists and let the strategic acquirer/SPAC handle the fallout later.
This is almost certainly a case of regulators, payment proc or UK/USA fed government compelled interruption
0Fs sin here is likely bad communication (and maybe there’s a reason for their reticence if they are trying to stave off taking the reported action at the 11th hour to avoid the panic the leaked (and possibly sensationalized) news outlets brought about In their zeal to out scoop.
People don’t understand how ubiquitous the MasterCard, visa, mechanical/acquirer bank “rails” are. The PayPal’s etc.
Oh sure crypto might work not nearly ready or as ubiquitous as a credit card or online wallet.
And then there’s multiple sides, consumers buying, 0F,
and having to payout to the creators.
If you use a digital wallet to buy Bitcoin /crypto then you’re still at the mercy of the square/PayPal/legacy payment apparatus. End to end crypto? How much of you’re total addressable market will your sacrifice/are known to pay with
crypto and keep their liquid funds in crypto? How many creators don’t use a bank or credit Union &live/pay for everything using crypto without it requiring some legacy bank infrastructure at any point? Chase canceled bank accounts of certain ladies just cause they have an 0F
Mechanical is suppose to be “merchantbank”
People directing the brunt of thier anger at only fans are playing the game or mistaken. Put the focus on legacy banking / visa / MasterCard. Otherwise the “next” 0F will grow until it runs into the same fate.
I made a bet 1 years ago that Facebook would soon be a $trillion company despite regulatory troubles, FTC dismissed the suit, and fb crossed 1T same day ….. how you like dem apples @yDonateTwitch
Also when @pokimanelol tweeted about “which stonk to buy” I pitched $FB
In before someone comes in and says “but so and so company did better”
The point was I picked a company I could actually understand that greatly outperformed indexing (+28% over the same period). Facebook was up 85%, and is still arguably “cheap” today (not advice)
Like, yea I’ll take my 61% annualized returns tyvm
Should the USA BAN Tiktok (as India has already done)?
Leaving aside the political motivations re the administration, there’s probably a real interesting discussion here (continued in next tweet)
I’ve always maintained that if Instagram wanted to they could create earths biggest celebrity by simply “boosting” the explore/algorithm ranking of a particular account so that it always shows up at the top of everyone’s feed/dominates the explore/discovery feature.
Influencers as a group are remarkably attuned to trends and figure out pretty quickly when something is trending or doing well. There’s also immense peer pressure/group think in shaping our values depending on what the deafening voice of the “masses” are saying/engaging with