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20 Aug, 4 tweets, 2 min read
A short thread on cases.
TL;DR - Cases are on the rise across the UK.
This is perhaps unsurprising given the easing of restrictions in much of the UK from July 19th.
Schools went back in Scotland this week, so we'll look to see their impact in the coming weeks.
1/4
After a dip in mid-late July, the UK started to see rises in cases over all, corresponding to the relaxation of restrictions on July 19th in many parts of the UK.
Cases are rising relatively slowly at the moment, but don't forget schools are not yet back in England.
2/4
Schools went back in Scotland this week, so all eyes will be on them to see what happens.
Before schools went back, Scotland was seeing a sharp rise in infections, perhaps as a result of moving to level 0 restrictions (19th Jul) and then beyond (9th Aug).
3/4
You can see the rises in almost all age groups in Scotland at about the same time (beginning of August) which ties in nicely with the July 19th easing of restrictions.
Thanks to @TravellingTabby for these charts: travellingtabby.com/scotland-coron…
4/4

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More from @Kit_Yates_Maths

Kit Yates Profile picture
30 Aug
On Thursday I am sending my kids back to a school with very few mitigations against the transmission of covid.
If you, like me, are feeling anxious then know that you are not alone.
1/4
We are 18 months into this. There are public health measures which we know work to mitigate the spread of covid, including ventilation, masks and vaccination.
The majority of our children are being denied these measures in the indoor spaces…
2/4
… in which they spend much of their time.
We have had so long to do something about this, yet in recent months we have actually gone backwards (removing masks, bubbles, isolation of contacts etc).
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Kit Yates Profile picture
20 Aug
A short thread on vaccination:
TL;DR Coverage of the total population is increasing as we vaccinate 16-17 year olds.
All home nations now have fully vaccinated coverage greater than 60%.
Vaccination rate has stayed relatively flat arresting sustained falls.
1/7
All home nations now have fully vaccinated coverage greater than 60%. Of course this still leaves 30-40% without the full protection, but >60% is already clearly making a big difference.
The more we can vaccinate the better for reducing the spread, severe disease and death.
2/7
Daily rates for the UK are stable at about 200K doses per day.
That has been flat or slightly increasing for a couple of weeks halting the decline of the last two months.
This is partly as a result of bringing 16-17 yos online for vaccination.
3/7
Read 8 tweets
Kit Yates Profile picture
20 Aug
Many commentors have recently suggested we may not be able to reach herd immunity and have drawn the conclusion that we shouldn't bother to vaccinate certain sections of society.
Our new @IndependentSage report: (How) can we reach herd immunity? is out:
independentsage.org/wp-content/upl…
I'll summarise briefly here.

First, what is herd immunity?

As immunity builds up it slows he spread of the disease.
Immunity can be acquired through infection or through vaccination.

Vaccination is safer and better.
2/7
Immunity will not be distributed evenly - if there are regions or communities (e.g. children) that have not reached that threshold, then the disease can still spread in these groups.
3/7
Read 7 tweets
Kit Yates Profile picture
20 Aug
A short thread on cases by age.
TL;DR Despite much being made of rises in younger age groups, these seem to be localised and are not reflected in the overall numbers which are mostly flat albeit at high levels.
More concerning is the steeper rises we are seeing in the >60s.
1/6
There have been some up-ticks in case rates for the under 20s in the SW, SE and NW, but other regions are flat or falling, albeit rates in these age groups are high and we would like to see them come down before schools return.
2/6
Overall numbers in the under 20s are fairly flat, as are numbers for the 20-59s, although both are quite high.
What's more worrying is the rises we are now seeing in the over 60s undoing all the falls we saw during the July dip.
3/6
Read 7 tweets
Kit Yates Profile picture
20 Aug
A short thread on hospitals in the UK:
After a brief dip in hospital admissions they are starting to rise again.
1/4
Hospital occupancy saw an even briefer respite and occupancy is now as high as it's been in this wave.
2/4
Hospitals reported being under pressure weeks ago and it seems unlikely with given the above figures that much has changed.
theguardian.com/world/2021/jul…
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Kit Yates Profile picture
20 Aug
A short thread on cases and positivity across the UK.
TL;DR Cases and positivity look to be on the rise across the UK (with the possible exception of Northern Ireland) but the picture is mixed.
The rises are not ubiquitous across all nations, regions and local authorities.
1/9
Cases seem to be rising across all four nations of the UK, after each nation saw a dip in July.
These rises probably correspond to the easing of restrictions and should be placed in context of schools still being off (Scotland saw schools return this week).
2/9
The picture is reflected in positivity. Positivity in all Nations is rising again, apart from Northern Ireland, which has continued to see positivity rates falls.
3/9
Read 10 tweets

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