A short thread on cases by age.
TL;DR Despite much being made of rises in younger age groups, these seem to be localised and are not reflected in the overall numbers which are mostly flat albeit at high levels.
More concerning is the steeper rises we are seeing in the >60s.
1/6
There have been some up-ticks in case rates for the under 20s in the SW, SE and NW, but other regions are flat or falling, albeit rates in these age groups are high and we would like to see them come down before schools return. 2/6
Overall numbers in the under 20s are fairly flat, as are numbers for the 20-59s, although both are quite high.
What's more worrying is the rises we are now seeing in the over 60s undoing all the falls we saw during the July dip. 3/6
This is not driven by one particular region, but worryingly is consistent across all regions of the UK.
Although their rates are lower overall, this is the most 'at-risk' age group so rises in this cohort are particularly concerning. 4/6
You can see all this from the heat map.
Cases are still highest in the younger age groups (although lower than mid-July), but have been slowly rising in the older age groups. 5/6
Broken down into 5 year bands we can see rises in most age groups, reflecting the overall rises across the country, with some age groups rising faster than others and a few still falling. 6/6
With thanks, as ever, to Bob Hawkins for his help preparing the data.
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After hearing some underwhelming testimony last month at the #COVIDInquiry on the use of respirators, @trishgreenhalgh and I decided to write a rapid response to the @bmj_latest to set the record straight.
Here's what we wrote...
1/15 bmj.com/content/386/bm…
"Respirators outperform surgical masks; fit-testing is desirable but not essential"
Professor Susan Hopkins (UK Covid Inquiry, 18th September 2024) claimed that evidence for the superiority of respirators (which are made to an industry standard and designed to fit ...
2/15
closely around the face) over medical facemasks (which are not generally made to any quality standard and often fit loosely, leaving gaps around the sides) is “weak”.
She also claimed that respirators are of little use if they are not fit-tested.
3/15 bmj.com/content/386/bm…
As the UK’s general election campaign enters its final few weeks, we’ve already seen numerous examples of dodgy declarations, substandard stats and graph gaffs.
So I thought I'd write about the importance of numeracy to the functioning of democracy.
🧵
We can expect to see more questionable claims in the run up to polling day.
The factor that all these all these missteps have in common is that they involve the manipulation or misrepresentation of numerical quantities.
One of the most hotly disputed figures of the campaign so far has been the Conservatives’ claim that Labour’s policies will, as Rishi Sunak put it, “amount to a £2,000 tax rise for everyone”. Labour have rebuffed this figure, arguing that... theguardian.com/politics/artic…
Politicians will get away with the things we forget, so here is a list of things to remember about the government's record on covid: 1. Over 230,000 died from covid in the UK. 2. They partied while we weren't allowed to see our loved ones. Thousands died alone.
...
3. They were too late taking action in spring 2020. 4. They delayed again in autumn of 2020. 5. They waited until they had no other choice in winter of 2020/2021. 6. They funnelled cash to their mates through the VIP lane. 7. PPE provided to our healthcare workers was inadequate.
8. They failed to heed the warnings in the pandemic planning exercises. 9. The promised a protective ring around care homes and instead sent infected patients to them from hospitals.
There are many more, these are just the most egregious.
A water company released sewage into the stream that runs into the beach where we were holidaying. I didn’t like the idea of swimming in the sea after that, so I tried to sue to water company for spoiling our holiday. This is what happened…
1/21
First up, cards on the table, I am a keen outdoor swimmer. I swim with a group of friends most weeks in our local stretch of the Thames. Come rain or shine, winter or summer, there are usually at least two of our number bracing the river waters north of Oxford.
2/21
We do so cautiously, however, especially in winter when it has been raining heavily and it is almost guaranteed that sewage will have been pumped into the river a few miles upstream.
The giveaway as to whether there has been a discharge or not is the smell.
3/21
It's π-day (3/14 in US date format) - the international day of mathematics.
But people often ask me why π is important. Why do we care about calculating more and more digits?
In short, "What is the point of π?"
Well, here is the answer...
1/
3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716939937510...
The number of digits after the decimal place in pi extend off into the distance (these are the first 50).
Truncating π's decimal expansion after the second decimal place (3.14) is sufficient to specify the date of pi day.
With 11 digits of π we can calculate the circumference of the Earth from its radius with an error of just a mm.
With 38 digits we can compute the circumference of a circle encompassing the whole of the known Universe with an accuracy to within the radius of a hydrogen atom.
3/
But do you know why we have leap days at all and how often exactly they come around?
Read on to find out...
1/21
This exceptional day has been associated with weird and wonderful traditions over the years: from the wildly outdated notion that 29th of February is the only day when women can propose to men, to the Leaper Year festival held in Anthony, New Mexico.
2/21 vox.com/2016/2/29/1113…
As a rule of thumb, leap days come around every four years. But there are exceptions to this rule. For example, at the turn of every century we miss a leap year. Even though the year is divisible by four, we don’t add a leap day in the years that end in 00. But...
3/21