Thread by @benrileysmith

Why do we keep seeing planes flying off not full from Kabul? The explanation emerged yesterday... /1

US, UK, Nato ally planes are flying in and out on an endless rotation. Touch down, get people on, take off, fly them to regional hubs, repeat. Given the constant flow planes can’t sit for hours and hours on the tarmac before taking back off... 2/

...which is a long way of saying the problem in the operation isn’t supply of planes. It is the supply of people who have been issued documents and have got through to the airport ready to be flown. 3/

In recent days UK planes taking off have on average been about 3/4s full. Which put another way is a quarter empty. Some are packed, some are quite empty if they arrive at a time when few people are through + ready to go. Other examples of nations with even emptier planes. 4/

So why is there such a delay getting people processed and ready to fly? There are a few reasons, the first being demand... 5/

UK Government hotlines are getting thousands of calls a day. Each one they have to process. Is the person a Brit? Or a relative or a Brit? Or an Afghan who qualifies for ARAP scheme as they helped the British mission? What docs do they have to back up their claim? Etc etc 6/

The Home Office and Foreign Office are working through the night. 24/7. The F Office has 250 people working each shift. (So c. 1000 in total). Approvals are being made - overnight Thursday around 1800 visas issued - but it takes time. /7

Another massive problem is then getting to the airport for those approved. It can take 24-48 hours to get across Kabul to reach the hotel by the airport where the UK is processing approved people. Two days, to make it across a city. /8

The key problem, believe those working on the operation, is not the Taliban turning away scores of people. It is the huge crowds. It is the fear. Sometimes people try to get to the airport, get close, fear violence, turn back and are called forward again. /9

Horrific stories of what that means are beginning to emerge. People being crushed in crowds by the airport, or worse. See the below from @benfarmerDT. Or the reporting on the ground today from @ramsaysky. /10

A factor is UK’s approach. British soldiers are not routinely going out of Kabul airport secure zone to bring in those approved. (Special forces may be doing this. Hard to tell scale as officials won’t comment. But we’re told policy generally is get to the airport yourself.) /11

And then, once at the UK’s hotel, there are other challenges. It is right by the airport but there are often crowds between the hotel and the airport. Meaning transporting people to the plane can be slow and fraught with risks. UK is trying to make changes to improve journey. /12

Lastly improvements are still being sought in how nations work together to take others’ evacuees. UK taking some foreign nationals on their flights and vice versa. But you need the right facilities in place they are dropped off for further processing. Immensely complicated. /13

Boris Johnson said yesterday things are improving a little. UK flew out around 1,000 people Fri, likewise on Thur. That means the Gov’s 1k target was hit, better than the low hundreds seen earlier in the week. But... /14

UK officials helping run the operation don’t doubt the scale of the challenge. Some who have worked on crisis relief throughout their careers believe it is the most complex challenge they have ever faced. And of course... 15/

Time is running out. Brits and Americans both working on the assumption the deadline is Aug 31. 10 days time. Thousands of Brits and their relatives still in Afghanistan, plus many more Afghans who helped the West. Everyone will be willing them on. 16/ END