Telegraph tomorrow publishes a load of intel on PM’s social care reforms.
Expected next week... breaks manifesto pledge by raising tax on c.25m... in order to cap lifetime care costs (at higher than expected)... No10-No11 at loggerheads on exact tax rise... Big political gamble.
To unpack some of our reporting tomorrow, a few tweets...
TIMINGS: Widely expected to drop next week. One source said pencilled in for Tuesday cabinet briefing then announcement. Makes sense to go early as rest of the spending review revolves around fixing this package.
PACKAGE: Broad outline as expected. A big move both on social care (cap plus assets ‘floor’) and better NHS funding. All paid for with a rise in national insurance. Broadly a ‘bite the bullet and go big’ moment.
CAP: A lifetime cap on how much an individual can spend on social care before the state steps in. Was expected to be £50k. But we understand will be much higher. Gov modelled 60k and 65k. Source thinks could be 80k. Higher = cheaper for the Treasury.
TAX ROW: Treasury and No 10 still at loggerheads re exact level of national insurance rise. We understand: Downing St keen on 1p rise. Treasury has pushed for higher, inc 1.25p. No10 nervous about being accused of bigger tax rise than Blair/Brown (per insider) who did a 1p rise.
MANIFESTO HEADACHE: 2019 Tory manifesto said “we promise not to raise the rates of income tax, National Insurance or VAT”. So if reform is as understood it’s a clear breach. Also had this line: “We not only want to freeze taxes, but to cut them too.” Complicates the politics.
THE POLITICS: DowningSt’s gamble is essentially this: it’s middle of parliament; we have a poll lead; we need to act on this; voters will back tax rise linked to healthcare; 80seat majority makes rebellion win unlikely; if it all lands well Tories eat into Labour’s lead on NHS.
TAX HIKE NUMBERS: 32 million adults are in employment. Around 26 million pay national insurance (per @resfoundation estimates). Still unclear exactly how much raised (depends on where NI rise ends up and OBR forecasts) but in region of £10bn+ a year.
PENSIONERS: There are calls for people above pension age to pay the NI rise too. To offset criticism that it’s the young bearing the brunt. Would be big change... and one we understand currently not going to happen. (Partly due to pension triple lock change this yr). But tbc.
My news write-up and longer inside read about where it’s all at are both in here. All set to be one of the big Westminster ding-dongs this month. telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/…
P.s. Worth saying talks b/w No 10 / No 11 / Health Dep still very much live. Gov spokesmen stressing final details yet to be locked in. So movement on exact care cap / NI figure / framing could still happen. A delay is not impossible, depending on how fraught it gets.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Why do we keep seeing planes flying off not full from Kabul? The explanation emerged yesterday... /1
US, UK, Nato ally planes are flying in and out on an endless rotation. Touch down, get people on, take off, fly them to regional hubs, repeat. Given the constant flow planes can’t sit for hours and hours on the tarmac before taking back off... 2/
...which is a long way of saying the problem in the operation isn’t supply of planes. It is the supply of people who have been issued documents and have got through to the airport ready to be flown. 3/
“Was our intelligence really so poor? Was our understanding of the Afghan government so weak? … Or did we just think we had to follow the United States and on a wing and a prayer it would be alright?"
Theresa May continuing her scathing intervention.
Says it's "incomprehensible and worrying" UK and allies couldn't find an alternative solution as US pulled out
"Surely one outcome of this must be a reassessment of how Nato operates". Warns Russia and China will be emboldened.
Theresa May's withering close. "We boast about Global Britain. But where is Global Britain on the streets of Kabul?" UK foreign policy will be judged by "deeds" not "words".
This is what has been happening on the ground at Kabul airport, per a UK defence source. Helps explain the footage we’re seeing.
The airport perimeter was meant to be manned by Afghan security forces. But that disintegrated on Sunday as Afghans surged in trying to flee... 1/
Instead it was left to US soldiers to man a chain fence that is right by the Kabul airfield. That effectively became the new perimeter to be secured. The problem was it was very easy to penetrate... 2/
Afghans broke through the barrier on Sunday night and made it in their hundreds onto the airfield. Then again on Monday morning. And again on Monday afternoon. (Per this UK military source). 3/
LONG READ: On Boris and Biden’s not-so-special relationship. Some of the facts in there...
1/ Boris+Biden have had 2 phone calls in the first seven months of 2021. Boris+Trump in the same period in 2020 had 7 calls. telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/…
2/ Biden administration figures who served Obama still bristle at Boris’s “part-Kenyan” comment. One who’s discussed it with them said: “Some of them really, really resented it and haven't forgotten.”
3/ Boris is frustrated by Biden (who prides his Irish heritage) too easily adopting Dublin’s line on N Ireland Protocol.
That’s per 2 sources who’ve discussed it with PM. One: “He worries that Biden deep down is too uncritical in his acceptance of Ireland's view of everything”.
The scramble is underway to control Kabul’s airport. @Telegraph reporting tomorrow the US has taken over air traffic control. US soldiers leading on security there with UK help. RAF aircraft flew in today. UK defence source tells me “the next 48 hours will be crucial”.
One of many unknowns: will the Taliban let evacuations take place? Indication from their spokesman today is yes. Also US+UK on ground there so an incentive perhaps to let them carry on, knowing they’ll soon go. But for how long? And if the Taliban decide ‘time for troops to go’?
Write-up of today’s shocking developments with @benfarmerDT below. Also in there: Afghan President explains why he fled: “In order to avoid the bloodshed, I thought it was best to get out." telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202…