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Andrew Prokop Profile picture
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23 Aug, 7 tweets, 4 min read
Gavin Newsom needs to win a majority vote to stay in office.

If he doesn't get that, somebody else can win the governorship with a small plurality.

Weird design!

vox.com/22617048/calif…
Newsom couldn't put his name up as a replacement candidate.

So his team is urging Dem voters to leave the replacement question blank.

But if Newsom loses the recall vote, and Ds have abstained from replacement vote, easier for a conservative R to win

vox.com/22617048/calif…
Urging Dem voters to abstain from the replacement question is self-interested strategy (Newsom wants to frame the choice as between him and a Republican).

But the replacement vote only matters *if* Newsom loses the recall vote. Picking a replacement candidate doesn't hurt Newsom
The CA recall has big implications for the state and its pandemic response (though the governor's office will be on the ballot again in 2022), but also a potential national implication, considering the US Senate is 50-50 & Sen. Feinstein is 88 years old

vox.com/22617048/calif…
To be clear I think state Democrats have rationally pursued the strategy that maximizes Newsom's chances of winning. But that comes at the cost of having a Plan B in case he doesn't win.

Was there a superior strategy that would have maximized the chances of "keeping a Democrat as CA's governor, whether it's Newsom or not Newsom?"

Not sure. It didn't work in 2003. But that was a different election, with different dynamics at play.

kqed.org/news/11870960/…
Will partisan dynamics reassert themselves in CA, and save Newsom? Certainly possible.

But can't be taken for granted. Weird things can happen in oddly-timed elections, even in "safe" states. Ask Scott Brown, or Doug Jones.

vox.com/22617048/calif…

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More from @awprokop

Andrew Prokop Profile picture
16 Sep
Durham's indictment of Dem lawyer Michael Sussmann is a "speaking indictment." Is written with much detail to advance narrative that Trump was victim of foul play re: the "secret Russian server" story

washingtonpost.com/context/u-s-v-…
Durham’s belief, expressed in this indictment, is basically that Clinton supporters drummed up a thin/bogus Trump Russia tie, fed it to the FBI to get Trump under investigation, then had it leaked to the press to hurt Trump’s campaign. ImageImageImage
But Durham does not say any of that is criminal.

The crime he alleges is a false statement made by one person involved, attorney Michael Sussmann, during a meeting with the FBI.

Alleges Sussman said he was not acting on a client's behalf, but that he really was. Image
Read 6 tweets
Andrew Prokop Profile picture
15 Sep
Newsom framing the race as himself vs. Elder was in part strategy, but it was also simple reality.

Republican voters flocked to Elder and made him and not, say Faulconer the preferred candidate. Elder really would have won if Newsom got booted.

vox.com/2021/9/15/2266…
That is: Republican voters chose to elevate a bombastic, polarizing candidate and hope he could squeak through the weird recall process, rather than someone who could have plausibly been actually popular in a blue state
And the takeaway is apparently that Elder is the frontrunner to be the GOP's candidate again next year... except in a head-to-head matchup with Newsom that he's far *less* likely to win.

So yes, not a great development for the GOP in CA

Read 4 tweets
Andrew Prokop Profile picture
15 Sep
This goes rather too far for me (it depends on the author!) but I do think the value-added from good reported political books is more often about added detail, depth, context, and an eye toward posterity rather than scoops
I have no idea what the "scoops" were in Woodward's "Obama's Wars" at this point but I referred back to it recently because it's a detailed, meeting-by-meeting reconstruction of the policy process that simply couldn't be done in ordinary reporting

vox.com/2021/8/18/2262…
But I do tend to be more skeptical of the headline-grabbing, big scoops that get spotlighted to sell the books.

George Tenet had a strong case that "Plan of Attack" exaggerated the significance of the "slam dunk" comment in convincing Bush to go to war newyorker.com/magazine/2007/…
Read 7 tweets
Andrew Prokop Profile picture
14 Sep
Unpopular take on here but IMO:
-Books are a legitimate medium for reporting
-Reporting and writing them takes time.
-Timing of book release should be up to author and publisher.
I'd say if a reporter unearths information someone set to be executed is innocent, it would be pretty shitty to wait till after they're executed to publish.

When you get to politics, the question of what impact the new information would make gets hazier

Also there seems to be an assumption that Woodward/Costa learned the Milley stuff when Trump was still in office.

Not impossible, but Jan 6-20 is a really short window.

Before the Feb 13 impeachment acquittal? Dunno. But if after that, I don't see impact of quicker publication
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Prokop Profile picture
23 Aug
IMO there are, or will be, substantive stakes here.

The centrists want to increase their leverage in shaping the reconciliation bill. They want to be able to credibly threaten to kill the bill if their demands aren't met. (cont'd)
Right now, centrists' threat to kill the reconciliation bill isn't the most credible, bc that would mean sinking Biden's whole agenda.

Indeed, that was the point of the Pelosi/progressive strategy. Holding the centrists' beloved bipartisan deal hostage to force their hands
Freeing the hostage means that the centrists have more leverage to make threats and force big changes on reconciliation. And considering all the things Dems hope to do in reconciliation, that could mean very real policy consequences vox.com/22577374/recon…
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Prokop Profile picture
10 Aug
Senate's imminent passage of infrastructure bill seems to defy many of liberals' heuristics about "how things work" (that all negotiations from Republicans are insincere ploys, that polarization makes bipartisan achievements impossible, that personal relationships don't matter)
FWIW my take a few months back was that:
1. Certain issues (voting rights, immigration) are so polarized that compromise really is impossible
2. On other issues, bipartisanship can be achievable, though it might involve compromises progressives don't love

vox.com/22339531/manch…
But many people insisted for months that this was obviously doomed and anyone who thought otherwise was a fool. When there's a surprising outcome, good to take note and update your mental model of the world, at least a bit.
Read 4 tweets

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