I'm trying to make sense of the news on the timing of the withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the 31 August deadline.
There seem to be 2 things going on at once. 1/7
First, the 31 August date is the date agreed between the US and the Taliban. If the US feels that it (or, perhaps, others) need more time, they can discuss with the Taliban whether the deadline can be pushed back. 2/7
There are questions about whether Biden wants to ask for more time, and, importantly, whether the Taliban will agree. 3/7
Second, the UK and others are seeking to put pressure on the US, asking the US to provide support in Afghanistan beyond 31 August. Johnson is at the centre of this, and the G7 meet tomorrow. 4/7
All they can possibly achieve is to convince Biden to ask for more time. Whether or not that time is afforded depends not on only Biden's ask, but also on whether the Taliban is minded to accept that ask. 5/7
I don't know what the Taliban will do. There is some leverage which the US (especially in conjunction with others) can exert. 6/7
The reality is that there is very little that the UK, and indeed the G7, can do to protect strategic interests. The key decisions rest with the US and the Taliban.
We need to be think, short and long term, about what leverage we can have over each of them. 7/7
I have been reading and listening to a lot of analyses of the reshuffle. Pretty much all of them seem to me to be wide of the mark. THREAD 1/14
Commentators, backbenchers and policy analysts all speak as though the detail of policy matters. In the real world, of course it does.
But, in the mind of the PM and his top advisors, it hardly matters at all. And that explains a lot. 2/
Trying to read the runes, to work out the direction of travel, to put flesh onto the bones of Johnsonism (or whatever), is likely to be an unsatisfactory exercise. 3/
The strategy of this Govt often confuses me. Today, its focus was on the COVID Winter Plan. THREAD. 1/10 gov.uk/government/pub…
What I'm curious about, is the decision to publish not only a Plan A, but also a Plan B.
One plan is often a plan too far for the Govt - so why have we been treated to two today? 2/
The reaction has been predictable, and at first sight at least, not the best for the Govt. It is, in the aftermath of its announcement, finding itself attacked from all sides. 3/
The Advice shows that there are 4 levels of decision-making involved. The key point is that, at each stage, as more factors are taken into account, the policy recommendations and prescriptions may differ. 2/10
First, the MRHA has the task of determining whether a vaccine is safe and effective, and whether to grant a licence. Their assessment, which is taken as read by the CMOs, was that benefits exceed risks. 3/10
As COVID restrictions are lifted, it is becoming more and more difficult to resist the conclusion that Brexit is having a profound effect on our economy, and its ability to recover. 1/6
In the last weeks, we have seen shortages of the flu vaccine, chicken in Nando's, and milkshakes in McDonald's, and supermarket supply chains. 2/6
These effects of Brexit are not new, but, for seemingly the first time, they are news.
(If you have a spare few hours, make your way through this mega-thread from @rdanielkelemen
This was from the first week of Johnson as PM - back in 2019. Lots of it was - sadly - right. The bit which remains right is that for this Govt, decision-making is deferred (they cross the bridge when they come to it). 1/3
It is not only in relation to Brexit that the inability, or unwillingness, to make decisions has consequences. If you fail to act, there is a risk that - sadly - you get overtaken by events. 2/3
That has been the key feature of the COVID response, the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the climate crisis. In each case, it is too little, too grudging, too late. And in each case, the consequences of a lack of strategy are - sadly - plain to see. 3/3
This is the essay on Afghanistan by Tony Blair. It is certainly thought-provoking... and these are the thoughts it has provoked from me. 1/10 institute.global/tony-blair/ton…
Blair calls on the West to think strategically, and to recognise the multi-faceted threat of 'radical Islam'.
He is alert to the wider geopolitical implications of intervention and withdrawal.
And yet... 2/
... while there is analysis of the path which 'radical Islam' has taken over the last 20 years, there is no corresponding analysis of the way political thinking in the West has evolved, and is evolving. 3/