I'm trying to make sense of the news on the timing of the withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the 31 August deadline.
There seem to be 2 things going on at once. 1/7
First, the 31 August date is the date agreed between the US and the Taliban. If the US feels that it (or, perhaps, others) need more time, they can discuss with the Taliban whether the deadline can be pushed back. 2/7
There are questions about whether Biden wants to ask for more time, and, importantly, whether the Taliban will agree. 3/7
Second, the UK and others are seeking to put pressure on the US, asking the US to provide support in Afghanistan beyond 31 August. Johnson is at the centre of this, and the G7 meet tomorrow. 4/7
All they can possibly achieve is to convince Biden to ask for more time. Whether or not that time is afforded depends not on only Biden's ask, but also on whether the Taliban is minded to accept that ask. 5/7
I don't know what the Taliban will do. There is some leverage which the US (especially in conjunction with others) can exert. 6/7
The reality is that there is very little that the UK, and indeed the G7, can do to protect strategic interests. The key decisions rest with the US and the Taliban.
We need to be think, short and long term, about what leverage we can have over each of them. 7/7
And this is where things stand at the moment. It's looking like an abject failure.
theguardian.com/world/2021/aug…

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More from @syrpis

16 Sep
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But, in the mind of the PM and his top advisors, it hardly matters at all. And that explains a lot. 2/
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The Advice is here:
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This is the essay on Afghanistan by Tony Blair. It is certainly thought-provoking... and these are the thoughts it has provoked from me. 1/10
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And yet... 2/
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