Stuart Neilson Profile picture
Aug 25, 2021 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
18 further deaths from Covid-19 were announced in the past week, a total of 57 in 3 weeks of August, an increase over 37 in July. Deaths are rising exponentially, but are very much less than with similar infection levels in January.
The ratio of deaths to cases is around 0.2%-0.3%, vaccination having reduced the median age of cases to 25 years. Very high infection levels are leading to growing infection in vaccinated older and vulnerable people.
The number of cases of confirmed Covid-19 (across all ages) continues to rise at 3.1%/day (24%/week), headed towards 10,000 cases per day around 8 October. Such high infection would be associated with 20 Covid-19 deaths per day.
The number of confirmed positive infectious people is about 15,000 (0.3% of the population) - as high as during the peak 4 - 24 January 2021. The chance of infection is higher than at any time in the pandemic, apart from the post-Christmas wave.
The reproduction number is 1.05-1.15, continuing epidemic growth that is outpacing vaccination. Vaccination alone will not end this wave, and other measures are needed to limit illness and death in older and vulnerable people.
Note that the reproduction number tracks a composite measure of mobility, and our composite mobility in Ireland continues to increase. Increased social contact means increased transmission.
Apple (dashed) and Google (solid) measures of mobility show increasing activity in every domain, most are greater than August 2020, when incidence was low. Infection rates are currently as high as in January.
In the past two weeks the 14-day incidence has fallen at ages 19-24, remained constant at 25-34, and increased in every other age group. It has tripled at 85+:

37% 0-4 years
72% 5-12
27% 13-18
-12% 19-24
0% 25-34
33% 35-44
71% 45-54
59% 55-64
96% 65-74
100% 75-84
191% 85+ years
The overall 24%/week growth (54% per fortnight, 136% per month) is therefore just outpaced by vaccination in only 19-24 year-olds, but growing exponentially into older age groups. They will soon make up the majority of Covid-19 cases.

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More from @StuartDNeilson

May 13, 2022
Covid-19 infection levels in Ireland have reached a minimum and are now rising toward a new wave, unless vigilant action reverses growth.
About 17,000 people are currently infectious, a high initial level of infection (higher than any wave before last winter).
The reproduction number is greater than 1.0 (in the range 1.2-1.3), and the period of reducing rates has not been sustained long enough to reduce widespread community transmission.
According to Harvard (one of the few live data dashboards remaining, despite the widespread Covid-19 apathy) the reproduction number in Ireland is 1.81
metrics.covid19-analysis.org
Read 5 tweets
Feb 16, 2022
Covid-19 plateau at about 10,000 positive test cases per day. Incidence is no longer falling.

About 14.4% of people in hospital are children. Around 90 children are in hospital due to Covid-19 today, and 4 children in ICU.

Week 6 Report out today: hpsc.ie/a-z/respirator…
The Covid-19 hub data with hospitalisation and cases by age group has been updated.
There was a large rise in hospitalisation of children and young people, peaking at 151 children under 5 years admitted per 14 days, 135 children aged 5-14 years and 198 aged 15-24 years.

Childhood admissions continue at 188 people under 25 years admitted to hospital per 14 days.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 16, 2022
Robert Watt says 1.5 million people will be added to HSE waiting lists this year.

ONE POINT FIVE MILLION.

That is a 170% increase in patients waiting for care (currently around 900,000).
If there is a total - 1.5 million new patients waiting - there must be a breakdown by specialty etc. The pandemic magnified pre-existing inequalities in many areas.

It would be reasonable to assume that CAMHS, psychiatry and other groups are disproportionately affected here.
Waiting for detail on Robert Watt's statement that "1.5 million will be added to waiting lists this year". Each year of Covid-19 is adding 18%, or about 100,000 additional patients. That leaves 1.2 million...
Read 4 tweets
Feb 15, 2022
Covid-19 infections, as reported by PCR & antigen positive tests, have plateaued at an extremely high level of 10,000 cases per day. Around 0.1% of all cases subsequently die from Covid-19, with over 200 deaths from Covid-19 every month for 5 consecutive months.

It's not over.
The reproduction number is close to 1.0, maintaining the plateau at an exceptionally high level. The data is an unreliable and volatile underestimate, with weekend PCR results added to Monday, and reliant on self-reported antigen results. The data is poor for planning.
On the basis of reported PCR and antigen results, we have plateaued at around 100,000 actively infectious people - 2% of the entire population.
Clinically vulnerable, old, pregnant and unvaccinated people remain at high risk of exposure until we ACTIVELY reduce infection levels.
Read 8 tweets
Feb 15, 2022
Blackpool Shopping Centre, #Cork. What does it say when there are no signs for pedestrians to walk or cycle from Blackpool village, not even to indicate the way in? And where the path is up steep steps, straight into a car park with no footpath to the entrance?
Cork University Hospital. There are no signs marking the bus stop, it takes nearly 4 minutes to cross a dual carriageway, with limited space for wheelchairs or walking frames. There are no signs for walkers, who have to navigate steep steps and cross busy internal roads.
If you can find the South Infirmary Victoria University Hospital, #Cork on a map, the old entrance is not for pedestrians, and there are no signs to the new entrance. It is truly cars-only, and a hostile environment to anyone walking or cycling in.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 15, 2022
Cllr Derry Canty is describing enforced dependency of older and #disabled people. Not just car-dependency, but dependency on goodwill of neighbours and relatives who drive.
We should be building streets where people can age with dignity, and reach shops independently.
There has been a mass decline in elderly people living in #CorkCity, forced out by lack of resources, hostile streets and inadequate housing. The absolute number and proportion of people over 65 living in the city has fallen census by census.
In net change terms, there are more working age people, especially men. Lack of family housing has forced out families with children, in addition to older people.
There has been a massive increase in younger men.
Read 8 tweets

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