Covid-19 infection levels in Ireland have reached a minimum and are now rising toward a new wave, unless vigilant action reverses growth.
About 17,000 people are currently infectious, a high initial level of infection (higher than any wave before last winter). The reproduction number is greater than 1.0 (in the range 1.2-1.3), and the period of reducing rates has not been sustained long enough to reduce widespread community transmission.

Covid-19 plateau at about 10,000 positive test cases per day. Incidence is no longer falling.

About 14.4% of people in hospital are children. Around 90 children are in hospital due to Covid-19 today, and 4 children in ICU.

Week 6 Report out today: hpsc.ie/a-z/respirator… The Covid-19 hub data with hospitalisation and cases by age group has been updated.

Robert Watt says 1.5 million people will be added to HSE waiting lists this year.

ONE POINT FIVE MILLION.

That is a 170% increase in patients waiting for care (currently around 900,000).

https://twitter.com/JackHoJo/status/1493898781670232065

If there is a total - 1.5 million new patients waiting - there must be a breakdown by specialty etc. The pandemic magnified pre-existing inequalities in many areas.

It would be reasonable to assume that CAMHS, psychiatry and other groups are disproportionately affected here.

Covid-19 infections, as reported by PCR & antigen positive tests, have plateaued at an extremely high level of 10,000 cases per day. Around 0.1% of all cases subsequently die from Covid-19, with over 200 deaths from Covid-19 every month for 5 consecutive months.

It's not over. The reproduction number is close to 1.0, maintaining the plateau at an exceptionally high level. The data is an unreliable and volatile underestimate, with weekend PCR results added to Monday, and reliant on self-reported antigen results. The data is poor for planning.

Blackpool Shopping Centre, #Cork. What does it say when there are no signs for pedestrians to walk or cycle from Blackpool village, not even to indicate the way in? And where the path is up steep steps, straight into a car park with no footpath to the entrance? Cork University Hospital. There are no signs marking the bus stop, it takes nearly 4 minutes to cross a dual carriageway, with limited space for wheelchairs or walking frames. There are no signs for walkers, who have to navigate steep steps and cross busy internal roads.

Cllr Derry Canty is describing enforced dependency of older and #disabled people. Not just car-dependency, but dependency on goodwill of neighbours and relatives who drive.
We should be building streets where people can age with dignity, and reach shops independently.

https://twitter.com/EoinBearla/status/1493284495008714753

There has been a mass decline in elderly people living in #CorkCity, forced out by lack of resources, hostile streets and inadequate housing. The absolute number and proportion of people over 65 living in the city has fallen census by census.

The full text of the @CMOIreland's letter to the Health Minster, 20 January 2020:
gov.ie/en/collection/… DEFINITIONS MATTER:

"56% of hospitalised cases were categorised as hospitalised for COVID-19, with the remaining 44% categorised as asymptomatic COVID-19 cases and potentially infectious."

(NOT "asymptomatic and non-infectious", as almost every news outlet claimed).

Covid-19 and deprivation, again.

The cumulative per capita burden of cases of Covid-19 across English local authorities is correlated with the extent of deprivation (R=0.52, p<0.001).

Deprivation: gov.uk/government/sta… (file 10, LA summaries)
Cases: theguardian.com/world/2021/dec… Leafy, affluent LAs in the bottom left - low Covid-19 cases, low proportion of LA’s population living in the most deprived LSOAs in the country.

Deliveroo, frontline and insecure employment top right - higher Covid-19 per capita.

2.2% of the entire population has TESTED positive for Covid-19 and is currently infectious. Many more are asymptomatic or untested.

If you meet just 31 people, there is a better than 50:50 chance that at least one is currently infectious. It is more likely that TESTS undercount CASES, and the true number is 2 to 3 times larger, i.e. it is possible that about 4% to 6% of the population is currently infectious.

18 further deaths from Covid-19 were announced in the past week, a total of 57 in 3 weeks of August, an increase over 37 in July. Deaths are rising exponentially, but are very much less than with similar infection levels in January. The ratio of deaths to cases is around 0.2%-0.3%, vaccination having reduced the median age of cases to 25 years. Very high infection levels are leading to growing infection in vaccinated older and vulnerable people.

When people say or write "anti-social behaviour" they are almost always defining "us" opposed to "them". The term is almost always used by people whose needs are fulfilled to identify people with many needs, and to label the "other" as undesirable. "Anti-social behaviour" is almost always about competition for resources, and the exclusion of already more deprived people from shared spaces and shared resources. It is very rare to see "anti-social behaviour" defined.

"Gilead under the guise of women’s lib"
theguardian.com/commentisfree/… "The National Center on Sexual Exploitation (NCOSE), formerly Morality in Media (MIM), is an American non-profit, anti-pornography, anti-sex-work... religious right and primarily Catholic."
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_…

29,000 cases of Covid-19 in #Ireland in the whole of July, and 24,000 in the first 15 days of August.
Cases are rising by 3.7%/day (29%/week) and heading to 10,000 cases per day around 25 September. 0.3% of the population are currently infectious, greater than in December 2020.
There is an 8% chance of at least 1 infected person in a group of 30, and a 50% chance in a group (e.g. school, office, shop) of 250 people.

Activity levels in #Ireland are fast approaching pre-pandemic levels, with Google Community Mobility levels of Parks, Residential, Grocery & pharmacy, and Workplace into above-average, non-lockdown levels of mobility. TomTom is registering levels of congestion close to pre-pandemic 2019 traffic in #Dublin and #Cork, with congestion in #Cork now HIGHER than pre-pandemic 2019 traffic over the weekends.
(tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-…)

Caution meets wind.

Baseline NPHET modelling predicts a substantial rise in case in the next few months. Upper end predictions are for thousands of cases per day.

Vaccination rollout (18% of over 65s so far) will have little impact on illness and death in the short term. "Our health system remains extremely fragile & health care workforce is exhausted following the most recent wave of infection. The number of COVID-19 patients in hospital & critical care remains high & in the case of critical care, at levels greater than peak of the 2nd wave."

Giving away money inflates property prices and harms communities. The "Rural Development Policy 2021-2025" has the potential to positively support town and rural development, or to do great harm.

Read it and take control.
gov.ie/en/publication… "Allowing people to live and work in their own communities" is the OPPOSITE of (financially) encouraging "remote workers to come and work in rural Ireland". Both are stated as goals.
rte.ie/news/ireland/2…

NPHET, 15 October:
"Were Re to be reduced to 0.5 for 3 weeks, daily cases would reduce to 250-300/day. HOWEVER, releasing measures at that point would likely re-escalation in disease trajectory, such that 1,000 cases/day would be expected by mid-December."
gov.ie/en/collection/… NPHET, 15 October:
"Were Re to be reduced to 0.5 for SIX [instead of THREE week lockdown] weeks, case numbers would be reduced to 50-100/day, following which release of all measures (Re returning to 1.4) would result in cases not going over 300/day until early January 2021"

During the next few weeks we can expect, at a minimum, 85,000 cases of coronavirus infection in #Ireland, 6,000 requiring hospital treatment for Covid-19, 700 requiring ICU treatment, and 500-1,000 of whom will die. Assuming growth is 5.9%/day, continuing 14 days from a new lockdown imposed on 29 December, cases would peak at around 2,200 cases per day, around 10 January. If restrictions from 29 December had the same impact as Level 5 in October then incidence would fall to 90/day in April.

Anyone doubting the value of suppressing coronavirus, Belgium has recorded 18,545 deaths in a population of 11.6 million. One person in every 630 has died from Covid-19.

Estonia recorded just 174 deaths in 1.3 million - just 8% of the Belgian rate. Countries that have taken STRONG and EARLY measures include Cambodia, Laos, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, China and most of Africa (shown on the same scale here) - with mortality rates 0.5% of the rate recorded by Belgium.

Why are we obstinately rejecting effective suppression?

Current trend in daily cases is (at least) a 5.9% per day (49% per week) rise, reaching 1,000 cases per day BEFORE the end of December.
NOTE that NPHET suggested re-imposition of lockdown if cases rose above 400 per day, and we are well over that threshold. 7 Dec: "Ireland could return to lockdown for 3 weeks if cases spike to over 400 per day over Christmas. NPHET has warned government that a “major increase” in socialisation could see 450 infection cases daily being diagnosed before the end of December."
irishmirror.ie/news/irish-new…

"The total net worth of 651 US billionaires rose from $2.95 trillion on March 18 — the start of the pandemic shutdowns — to $4.01 trillion on Dec. 7, a leap of 36%, according to Americans for Tax Fairness (ATF) & the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS)"
americansfortaxfairness.org/wp-content/upl… The $1 trillion wealth gain by 651 U.S. billionaires since mid-March is more than it would cost to send a stimulus check of $3,000 to every one of the roughly 330 million people in America.