Thread by @IntelWalrus

On September 3rd, 2018, A USAF MQ-9 Reaper drone was destroyed in an accident at an undisclosed location. The following will be an instructive thread on using #OSINT to determine where this event occurred.

One year after the accident, the USAF released an unclassified accident report that described the events of the mishap and the investigation that followed. The report, however, fails to say where the event happened but buried inside are the clues needed to find out.

According to the report, on 8-3-2018 at 0449Z, an MQ-9 Reaper (t/n: 10-4098) was totally lost after it overran a runway trying to return to base due to technical problems during an operational mission at an overseas 'undisclosed' airbase. (Cost of accident ~12$ million)

The report provides several clues which we can gather to narrow down exactly where the accident happened. These include the orientation and length of the runway involved, the time and date of the accident, the weather, and the fact that local ATC was contacted inflight.

Gathering the runway orientation and length 26 (for 260° and a length of 9021 feet (2750 m) gives us two specific criteria which we can use to eliminate possibilities. Using a online sources, we can begin searching through known public and clandestine sites that serve the USAF.

Out of the dozens of overseas runways used by the USAF there is one exact match. Runway 26 at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in the Kingdom of Jordan. Curiously, this airbase is still described as an 'undisclosed' location even though US ops there have been publicly known for some time.

Now that we have a possible site we can try to confirm some other details like the weather and check for any satellite imagery showing a possible accident. A historical weather report from the nearby town of Azraq, Jordan closely matched what is described in the report.

Planet🛰️imagery collected several hours after the accident and adjusted for contrast 8/3/2018 (provided by @ameliairheart) shows a distinctly dark spot indicative of a possible fire several meters away from the end of runway 26 which was not present on the previous day.

None of the above clues taken individually would be considered totally convincing, but the totality of them taken together gives me a very high amount of confidence that an MQ-9 was lost at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in 2018, probably while assigned as part of anti-ISIS operations.

While this report seems largely forgotten in the 2 years that have passed since it was originally released perhaps someone can follow up with the USAF about these findings. @Aviation_Intel @ameliairheart @Gerjon_ @TheAviationist @TheDEWLine @vcdgf555

Some sources and tools used for researching this:media.defense.gov/2019/Dec/04/20…
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/2…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U…
worldweatheronline.com/al-azraq-weath…