Now that we are at this point, mortars are the biggest risk to the operation and personnel at Kabul International. Always has been with this crazy plan.
CNN talking about MANPADS. Come on way easier and cheaper to destroy an aircraft on the ground with such a tight perimeter proximity than attacking a well-defended aircraft (almost all are) with a shoulder-fired heat-seeking missile that are very hard and expensive to get.
They know exactly where the planes are parked. Where everything is at. They can see it from a building top and have google earth. Those aircraft are giant gas tanks. The biggest issue with doing this out of urban Kabul International, especially just this one location.
The country is awash with low-end weaponry, especially basic mortars. You don't need a sophisticated weapon. Proximity and the density in this case, as well as lack of preparation/defenses, make this entire operation very very high risk.
Let's hope this doesn't come to pass. But the game has changed significantly, as we knew it would. They know the time to go after the U.S. military, in a more vulnerable place than it ever has been en masse, is ticking.

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More from @Aviation_Intel

11 Sep
I'm fascinated with Twin Tower photos. They were really impressive sort of brutalist structures in person. Some shots are just amazing. Like this one, taken during construction showing the elevator shafts and the skeleton of the buildings. It's like something out of Blade Runner.
At least for a time, after construction, the buildings were visible top to bottom from the river view, which was just spectacular. Seeing the entire structures made them even more majestic and almost surreal. See here:
This shot is also just gorgeous. The towers were great canvases for light. So many different moods to be had, nearly endless possibilities.
Read 10 tweets
11 Sep
They were really a sight to behold, weren't they? As a kid, I remember seeing them for the first time. Things are dense around there, when we drove into the area my dad was like look up, and I leaned out of the cab window and I was RIGHT next to them... 1/X
It was overwhelming. The cladding on the outside really made you lose a sense of scale.

20 years ago today waking up on that morning seeing the one burning. I told my parents before #2 hit that they were probably going to learn a lot about a man named Osama Bin Laden...
Sadly, I was right. The second would hit minutes later. We all knew what the deal was the second that horrific act was burned into our eyes.

Never Forget.
Read 6 tweets
10 Sep
The F-22 will not save Taiwan. It can't even have a major impact on an invasion of the island. Sorry, this is reality not the military fantasy in common circulation. I know this spiel of mine isn't new to many of you, but it has never been more relevant after today's viral junk
There are roughly just 125 combat coded F-22s. The fleet runs 50% mission capable rate, a bit higher for the upgraded combat capable aircraft. Assuming you can deploy all of them to the Pacific fast enough in a crisis (good luck with that), you are flying them from Guam or...
dispersed airfields if a shooting war starts. Huge tanker bridge gobbling up flight hours, and the tankers are vulnerable as F-22 has a lousy combat radius and China is fighting in its own back yard...
Read 10 tweets
9 Sep
A trio of fighters are making a run on a ship and/or fighters. They came from Miramar. Likely fleet adversary, not a contractor.
Resetting or possible RTB.
OK getting on as SNIPER now so probably VMFT-401 F-5Ns
Read 5 tweets
1 Sep
I guess they didn’t get the same damning intel that the Taliban would take the country in a matter of weeks once the US air and contractor support ended. Oh wait! Neither did the WH according to the WH.
Point being it should have been handled differently with a hard stated time for each to leave over the months prior to departure but it was played loose because they blew it on planning and projecting, or seemingly even considering, what seemed pretty obvious to many.
Remarkably low end spin from biden about his ‘hugely successful op.’
Read 5 tweets
31 Aug
In---------------20 years---------------Out
You are seeing CIA operatives flying into Afghanistan with boxes full of cash to buy off tribal warlords before the war fully kicked off and General Donohue—the last man out—leaving on the last C-17 out of Kabul today. In the time between the two photos, there were incredible...
examples of kindness and super-human bravery, as well as inhuman cruelty and evil. 2461 American troops lost their lives in this far away place, and even more contractors. Far more Afghans died, on both sides. Massive amounts of treasure was spent, as well...
Read 4 tweets

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