Thread by @pseudo_sapiens

What is the point of announcing - “We anticipate so many lakh cases in the 3rd wave per day” when despite all of this, the entire country will behave complacently about - Precautions that can prevent such numbers??

And don’t kid yourself about not being complacent because…

1) Go to any market place/mall/shop (I have sample sizes Delhi-NCR) - 80-90% of people will be having a mask hanging in their neck or no mask but a cloth covering their mouths not noses, people will be interacting from close distances while their masks are hanging.

2) Closed space eateries with shared Air space, simple ACs, no air filters functioning at full capacity, with at any given point in time 25-40 people eating with their masks down. The distance between 2 seats in less than an arm!!!

3) 70-80% people using Public Transports of shared cabs have zero or incorrect masking.

4) Test, Trace, Isolate is still non-functional across majority states & metros.

5) The population which is completely vaccinated still remains low & those vaccinated partially or fully start behaving more complacently about masking & restrictions.

Science is very clear on most of these issues & there is consensus- 1) Covid is airborne that means can remain suspended in air for longer duration than it would have if it had just been droplet which means unventilated shared air spaces enhance spread which means

Sharing air space which is not well ventilated (meaning either not filtered or replaced with fresh air frequently) without proper masking means allowing the spread of infection (and with delta too rapidly)

2) It is clear that higher direct exposure of the oral & nasal passages is associated with severe disease.
In both the above scenarios wearing masks like necklaces without covering noses & mouths means you are inviting trouble for yourself.

3) Science is clear when it says vaccines protect you against severe disease & death (& they can’t do so in 100% situations) but you are still capable of getting infected & transmitting infection to others.

4) If you get infected the risk is not just of having covid19 but also complications due to other infections, your co-morbidities, long Covid, Covid related thrombotic events etc

So Covid is just the start of your problems.

Opening up is not a problem but opening up by throwing all precautions into dustbin because you or the govts either believe - Numbers in your city are too low or that many have already had Covid or have had vaccination- is the problem.

Any number prediction is small enough when it comes to Covid spread, what is important to know is that even if the cases reach 30-50k per day healthcare systems will crash, people will die due to lack of beds, oxygen, medicines or associated complications

Knowing & understanding all of the above be my guest (whoever you are) & remain complacent about Covid & prevention related steps & precautions & take it from me that sooner or later we will be seeing a wave again & We chose to make it happen.

Also, Healthcare workforce as it is, is chronically overworked with hardly any incentive in this country, Covid19 has overwhelmed it to breaking point, so while govts & hospitals can force them to work by threatening sanctions then cannot pump in the enthusiasm or drive in them

And honestly enough way short of the trained & experienced workforce that is needed to handle infectious disease crisis that Covid creates, so even if govts open jumbo facilities they cannot weave out of thin air doctors & nurses trained in critical care.